France’s Emmanuel Macron is heading to China.
The French president, who last year drew fire from Western allies for a call not to ‘humiliate’ Russia in the backdrop of its war with Ukraine, faces a delicate balancing act in Beijing.
Let’s take a closer look at what we can expect from Macron’s visit:
Macron is slated to kick off his visit on Wednesday with a speech to the French community.
On Thursday, Macron will meet with the head of the National People’s Congress, Zhao Leji, and China’s new No. 2 leader, Premier Li Qiang, in addition to a meeting and a state dinner with Xi Jinping in the presence of von der Leyen.
As per Politico, Macron and Xi are likely to hold talks for several hours.
An adviser to Macron, speaking on condition of anonymity, told the outlet, “You can count with one hand the number of world leaders who could have an in-depth discussion with Xi.”
Macron is also expected to warn China against sending weapons to Russia and instead ask that the country use its influence to support peace efforts.
“We aren’t going to threaten, but send some warnings: The Chinese need to understand that [sending weapons] would have consequences for Europe, for us … We need to remind them of our security interests,” a senior French official told Politico.
Antoine Bondaz, a senior lecturer at Sciences Po Paris, told Euronews, “President Macron, of course, has the legitimacy to ask and raise the issue with China for two reasons. First, France is, of course, a nuclear weapon state. And second, France, unlike the US and the UK, is not part of any nuclear sharing agreement as these two countries are.”
Chinese president Xi Jinping. Reuters
“The French president must be and should be very aware of the limited leverage he has over Xi Jinping. France, compared to China, is a lightweight today, even though France is a permanent member of the UN Security Council. The relationship is very asymmetric and there is little that Macron can convince Xi Jinping of. It’s good to try. It’s good, of course, to leave channels of communication open, but we need to be very realistic in our expectations and to keep very limited expectations.”
“(The EU) wants to underline the message (to China) to not support Russia any more than is already being done, otherwise the bilateral relationship is doomed,” an EU official speaking anonymously told who was not cleared to speak to the media told RFE/RL. “History will show if all this traveling [to China] is a good thing or not.”
“China is the only country in the world capable of having an immediate and radical impact on the conflict, in one direction or the other,” an official from Macron’s office told reporters Friday on condition of anonymity.
Macron will look to stand firm towards President Xi Jinping on Ukraine while taking “another path” from the directly confrontational tone often heard from Washington, the official added.
China has refused to criticize Russia for its actions in Ukraine. A top French official acknowledged that Paris isn’t expecting to see a major shift in that position.
The Europeans won’t hold Xi back from arming Russia by “saying nicely what he shouldn’t do,” said Antoine Bondaz of the Paris-based Foundation for Strategic Research (FRS).
He predicted instead that the leaders would warn him off arms deliveries in public while dangling the threat of sanctions in their private talks.
But France will push for initiatives helping ordinary Ukrainians and for possible avenues toward reaching a halfway solution to the war, the official said, speaking on condition of anonymity in line with the French presidency’s customary practices.
Paris and Beijing may find a point of convergence following Putin’s recent announcement that his country plans to deploy tactical nuclear weapons in Belarus. China, without naming Russia, made clear its opposition to the planned deployment.
Macron will also seek to involve China deeper in global discussions on climate-related issues, as things are getting more complicated for him at home.
Concerns over mention of human rights
Though Macron’s office said human rights issues will be mentioned during the visit, some remain concerned.
“President Macron and von der Leyen should not sweep the Chinese government’s deepening authoritarianism under the rug during their visit to Beijing,” B?n?dicte Jeannerod, France director at Human Rights Watch, told Politico.
“They should use their public appearances with Xi Jinping to express strong concerns over widespread rights abuses across China, heightened oppression in Hong Kong and Tibet, and crimes against humanity in Xinjiang.”
Macron “must strongly denounce privately but also publicly the repression against Chinese activists and human rights advocates, Hong Kong’s people, Uyghurs and Tibetans,” France’s Human Rights League President Patrick Baudouin said in a statement.
On Friday, Macron will head to the southern Chinese metropolis of Guangzhou, where Xi’s father used to work as provincial governor in the 1980s.
The French president will answer questions there from some of the 1,000 Chinese students at Sun Yat-Sen university. He will then meet Xi again for a private dinner and later meet with Chinese investors.
The visit also comes amid ever-rising tensions between the US and China, the world’s two largest economies.
Trade in focus
Trade will also be a major focus as Macron has asked European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen to join him for a meeting with Xi that’s meant to show European unity especially on economic issues.
The French president said last month that he took such an initiative because he is “attached to European coordination.”
President Joe Biden and EU chief Ursula von der Leyen. Image courtesy: @POTUS/Twitter
China is both the EU’s commercial partner and a rival, Thierry Breton, EU Commissioner for Internal Market, said Monday on French news broadcaster FranceInfo. Breton said the message to Chinese authorities is that they “must stop trying to play one country against another.”
“Of course, China still is an important market for many European companies. But the (EU) internal market is a crucial market to China,” Breton added.
Macron will be accompanied by a delegation of over 50 CEOs including from French energy giant EDF, rail transport manufacturer Alstom and European plane-maker Airbus.
The top French official said negotiations were still being held on a potential deal with Airbus that would come on top of China’s 2019 order for 300 aircraft.
Macron previously travelled to China in 2019 before the COVID-19 crisis.
Von der Leyen last week complained that “far from being put off by the atrocious and illegal invasion of Ukraine, President Xi is maintaining his ‘no-limits friendship’ with Putin’s Russia” — recalling a phrase coined immediately before the invasion last February.
“How China continues to interact with Putin’s war will be a determining factor for EU-China relations going forward,” she added.
With inputs from agencies
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