The death toll is mounting in Turkey and Syria which has hit by a devastating 7.8 earthquake on Monday. More than 1,400 people have been killed and hundreds of others injured. Several buildings have collapsed and many are feared trapped. The temblor struck in the early hours when many were asleep and they were felt as far as the island of Cyprus and Egypt. Hours later, another 7.5-magnitude earthquake hit southeast Turkey, according to the United States Geological Survey.
The first quake, one of the largest to hit Turkey in the last century, was centred north of the Gaziantep about 90 kilometres from the Syrian border. The head of Syria’s National Earthquake Centre, Raed Ahmed, told a pro-government radio that this was “historically, the biggest earthquake recorded in the history of the centre”. The second shallow quake hit at 1:24 pm local time, four kilometres south-southeast of the town of Ekinozu.
Read all the live updates from the Turkey earthquake HERE
The catastrophe has caused widespread devastation, the magnitude of which will be unravelled in the days to come. But can quakes be predicted and lives be saved? We take a look.
A man searches collapsed buildings in Diyarbakir, southern Turkey, early Monday. More than a thousand people have died in the temblor that hit Turkey and Syria. AP
The Turkey quake ‘prediction’
Dutch researcher rank Frank Hoogerbeets, who works at Solar System Geometry Survey (SSGEOS), a Netherlands-based institute that monitors geometry between celestial bodies related to seismic activity, had “predicted” the quake on 3 February, three days ago.
“Sooner or later there will be a ~M 7.5 #earthquake in this region (South-Central Turkey, Jordan, Syria, Lebanon),” he wrote on Twitter.
On 2 February, the SSGEOS website said that larger seismic activity may occur from 4 to 6 February, most likely up to mid or high 6 magnitude. There is a slight possibility of a larger seismic event around 4 February.
Now after the quake, the prediction has gone viral. “As I stated earlier, sooner or later this would happen in this region, similar to the years 115 and 526. These earthquakes are always preceded by critical planetary geometry, as we had on 4-5 Feb,” he tweeted on Monday. His post has got 3.2 million views since morning.
However, Hoogerbeets is not the only one. An earthquake expert had said in December 2022 that a “big one” was predicted for the Marmara region, which is 1,248 kilometres from Gaziantep, close to the epicentre of Monday’s tremors.
Mining geology, earth sciences and earthquake specialist Serkan I?elli had told the Turkish newspaper Daily Sabah that he was expecting a disastrous quake in the Aegean region. “The Aegean region is a very complex place for us. Unfortunately, we do not follow that region very well. Especially the area under the island of Crete, called the Hellenic Arc, is dangerously prone to earthquakes,” he said.
He said that it was important to study the annual sliding rate of the fracture, the earthquake repetition period and the largest earthquake it produced and analyse it with various formulas accordingly.
After the Monday quake, the SSGEOS has said that additional strong seismic activity is expected in Central Turkey and nearby regions. “Aftershocks usually continue for a while after a major earthquake,” it wrote on Twitter.
Another 7.5-magnitude earthquake hit southeast Turkey on Monday. AP
The link between celestial bodies and seismic activity
According to SSGEOS, the first clue that specific geometry in the solar system may cause larger earthquakes was found on 23 June 2014, when three magnitude 6 earthquakes occurred in the South Pacific, followed by three more in the North Pacific peaking magnitude 7.9, all of which occurred within several hours. It was a sudden seismic increase in a relatively quiet month.
It is the ultimate grouping of larger earthquakes, a well-known but unexplained phenomenon in seismology. Using solar system simulation software, it appears that around 23 June 2014 six celestial bodies were engaged in planetary conjunctions that converged into a near triangle, News18 quotes the institute as saying.
Earthquake victims receive treatment at the al-Rahma Hospital in the town of Darkush, Idlib province, northern Syria. The head of the country’s National Earthquake Centre, Raed Ahmed, told pro-government radio that this was ‘historically, the biggest earthquake recorded’ by the agency. AP
The specific geometry between celestial bodies that are associated with larger earthquakes is generally referred to as “critical planetary geometry” and “critical lunar geometry” if the moon is involved. However, critical geometry does not always result in larger earthquakes. Sometimes only some seismic increase is observed, up to about magnitude 6.0. Sometimes there seems to be no seismic increase at all, SSGEOS says on its website.
“…the key is the condition of Earth’s crust, i.e. the amount of stress between tectonic plates and whether or not a fault section has reached its strain budget. This would logically indicate a direct relationship between the build-up of stress in Earth’s crust and electromagnetic charge from critical planetary geometry,” it says.
Also read: Turkey earthquake: Why temblors in the West Asian country are so deadly
The science of prediction
However, according to the United States Geological Survey (USGS), the scientific agency of the American government, scientists have not predicted a major earthquake. It says that scientists can calculate the probability that a significant quake will occur in an area within a certain number of years.
The body says that an earthquake prediction must involve the date and time, the location, and the magnitude. Earthquakes are part of a scientific process and have nothing to do with clouds and bodily aches.
If an earthquake happens to occur that remotely fits a prediction, people claim success even though one or more of their predicted elements is wildly different from what occurred, so it is therefore a failed prediction, USGS clarifies.
Damaged vehicles sit parked in front of a collapsed building following an earthquake in Diyarbakir, southeastern Turkey. AP
The World Economic Forum (WEF) says scientists monitor tremors, the historical data and the area’s geographical makeup. But while the information is useful, the estimates are a long way off.
“Radon gas is constantly emitted through cracks in the Earth. On certain occasions, spikes in the emission of radon gas have been observed as an immediate precursor to an earthquake. Some scientists remain sceptical that the two are directly correlated, but enough correlation remains for this to be a continued source of study,” a report published by WEF says.
Around 90 per cent of natural earthquakes occur underwater so being able to predict these would help avoid large-scale devastation. While theories suggest that animals can feel tremors, it is unknown what animals sense or fear.
Also read: From Turkey to Nepal, the deadliest earthquakes that rocked the world
The WEF report concludes that the way to minimise the damage caused by a temblor is to construct buildings and infrastructure that can stand steady despite the big shocks.
With inputs from agencies
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