The North East monsoon is active in South India for another week in a row as heavy rains continue in presence of the low pressure area moving inland from the Bay of Bengal.
The season has just started with second low pressure in a quick succession has impacted weather across Tamil Nadu, south Andhra Pradesh, Parts of Kerala and south Andhra Pradesh region is experiencing heavy to very heavy rains from the last three days.
Chennai has recorded 451 mm rainfall in the month so far, it has became third consecutive excess November for the city after 2020 and 2021, there have been about ten rainy days so far in the month, the North East Monsoon seasonal total in the official IMD’s observatory stands at 621 mm, Chennai has already achieved 75% average rains of the season in the limited days.
Also, it seems to be on track towards third consecutive excess North East monsoon – which is going to be a historical record as never since the beginning of rainfall records Chennai city has achieved three consecutive excess seasons in a row.
Similarly many parts of Tamil Nadu experienced extremely heavy rains till 8:30 AM on 12 November:
Sirkali: 436.2mmKollidam: 316.8mmChidambaram: 307.9mmAnnamalai Nagar: 275.8mmSembanarkoil: 242.3mmBhuvanagiri: 206.0mmKothavachery: 192.0mmKattumannarkoil: 185.4mmTharagambadi: 184.0mmParangipettai: 181.2mmMayiladuthurai: 161.6mmManamedu: 160.0mmSethiyathope: 159.4mmKurinjipadi: 156.0mmKangeyam: 154.0mm
Sirkazhi in Tamil Nadu has set a new all-time record by recording 436.2mm rainfall in the span of 24 hours by breaking its previous highest single day rainfall of 399.0mm from 15 November, 1991.
Low pressure area on a synoptic chart on 11th November, close to the Tamil Nadu coast resulting in record breaking rains in parts of Tamil Nadu
Meanwhile most parts of Central and East India had another dry and clear week but slowly winter is settling in the region as nights are getting cooler with every passing day.
Himalayas were wrapped up in fresh snow as another Western Disturbance approached in the past week, in Himachal Pradesh parts of Lahaul & Spiti experienced good snowfall accumulation on 9 November:
Koksar Sissu Panchayat: 20-30cmPattan Valley: 8-10cmDarcha: 15cmMiyar Valley: 10cmLossar: 13cmKaza: 5cm
Atal Tunnel – South Portal in Dhundhi recorded 22cm snowfall this is the first measurable snow event of this winter season.Gulmarg received the highest snowfall in Kashmir with a total accumulation of 41.1cm in a two day spell.
Post the passage of western disturbance, clear and freezing nights have gripped Himalayas as temperature dips to minus.
Ladakh
Nyoma: 11.3?cPadum: 10.5?cTangtse: 9.8?cLeh: 8.6?cDrass: 8.6?c
Jammu and Kashmir
Baltal:7.1?cPahalgam: 4.2?cKongdori: 4.2?cGulmarg: 3.2?c
Himachal Pradesh
Keylong: 4.7?cSumdo: 1.6?cKukumsheri: 1.4?cKalpa: 0.8?c
Uttrakhand
Kedarnath: 2.5?c
The plains of North India were least impacted by the western disturbance except for parts of Rajasthan where rains have been recorded in pockets.
Jaipur recorded 15.0 mm rains in 24 hours ending 11 November, Highest single day rainfall in the month of November at least in the last decade.
However temperatures have come down significantly as cold north west winds from the snow clad mountains started blowing in Punjab, Haryana, Delhi NCR, Rajasthan, UttarPradesh, also pollution levels have decreased and the Air quality index in Delhi still remains very poor.
On Friday, Adampur in Punjab with 9.8?c minimum recorded the first single digit minimum temperature of the season from plains of North India.
A further dip in temperature was observed on Saturday when multiple stations from Punjab recorded below 10?c minimum temperatures even Delhi at 12.6?c had the coolest morning of the season so far.
Top 10 Coldest places in plains of north India on Saturday morning
North East monsoon is holding tight along with slight precipitation over the Himalayas hence the rainfall performance in the post monsoon season so far is in above normal category across the country as India as whole recorded a total rainfall of 122.4 mm against the normal of 90.1mm in the period of 1st October till 12 November, the departure from normal stands at +36%.
Subdivision wise seasonal rainfall figures:
o Southern Peninsula: Actual 211.7 mm against the average of 198.3 mm, +7% departure from normal.
o East & North East India: Actual 164.7 mm against the average of 135.7 mm, +21% departure from normal.
o North West India: Actual 75.0 mm against the average of 26.3 mm, +185% departure from normal.
o Central India: Actual 93.5 mm against the average of 63.7 mm, +47% departure from normal.
Post monsoon seasonal rainfall in the meteorological subdivisions of India during 1st October till 12th November, 2022
Current synoptic features influencing weather in India as on 12 November:
o The low pressure area over north coastal Tamil Nadu, Puducherry & neighbourhood now lies over north Interior Tamil Nadu & neighbourhood and the associated cyclonic circulation extends up to mid-tropospheric levels. It is very likely to move across Kerala and emerge into the South East & adjoining East Central Arabian Sea as a low pressure area/ cyclonic circulation on 13 November, 2022.
o The Western Disturbance is a trough in mid tropospheric westerlies with its axis at 5.8 km above mean sea level roughly along Long. 88?E to the north of Lat. 28?N persists.
o A fresh Western Disturbance is likely to affect Western Himalayan region from 13 November, 2022.
o A low pressure area is likely to form over Southeast Bay of Bengal & neighbourhood around 16th November, 2022.
All India weather forecast till 19 November:
South India:
The active phase of rains will continue across Tamil Nadu, Kerala and parts of Karnataka on Sunday and Monday, as we head into next week rains will start decreasing as the impact of low pressure areas will start fading away.In the period of 15th to 19th November south India might observe a mid season break from the rains, a fresh low pressure area is expected to brew up in south east Bay of Bengal around 16th November but its impact at the coastal and interiors of South India will be seen around 20th November.
North India:
A fresh Western Disturbance is approaching Himalayas and plains of North India on the evening of 13 November, under the influence fresh spell of moderate snowfall is expected over higher and middle reaches of Kashmir, Ladakh, Himachal Pradesh and Uttarakhand – day temperatures are expected to fall further at the hill stations during Sunday till Tuesday and post the passage of the weather system minimum temperatures will drop further, these series of Western Disturbance are marking entry of Winters in North India by next week.
Cloudy skies are expected in Punjab, Haryana, Delhi NCR, Rajasthan and parts of Uttar Pradesh by the night of 13 till the morning of 15 November.
Scattered Light rains are expected in Punjab, whereas only isolated showers may occur in Haryana, Delhi NCR and North Rajasthan on 14 November along with the drop in day temperatures by 2-3?c, maximum temperatures might record below 25?c in a few stations.
After the passage of western disturbance cold winds will again make their way into plains leading to drop in minimum temperature and Winters will make an entry by mid November.
Central and East India:
The weather conditions are most likely to follow the trend of the past 2-3 weeks – due to the inactivity of any weather system, mainly dry and clear weather conditions are likely to prevail in the entire North East India, East and Central parts of the country.
However, the recent activities of rain and snow in north India will send some chill down to these regions, Over the next week night temperatures will drop by 1-2?c from current levels in Madhya Pradesh, Gujarat, Maharashtra, Chhattisgarh, Bihar, Jharkhand, West Bengal, Odisha.
The author, better known as the Rohtak Weatherman, interprets and explains complex weather patterns. His impact-based forecasts @navdeepdahiya55 are very popular in north India.
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