India vs Bangladesh Tests: How India can reach World Test Championship final

India are set to take on Bangladesh in a two-match Test series, starting on December 14 at the Zahur Ahmed Chowdhury Stadium in Chittagong. The two Tests come under the World Test Championship (WTC) cycle, thus the series is crucial for the visitors who finished runners-up in the maiden edition of the WTC last year.

India are currently placed in 4th position in the WTC points table with 52.08 PCT. They are behind Sri Lanka, Australia, and South Africa in the tally. Bangladesh, on the other hand, is out of the race of WTC and would be keen to spoil the party of the KL Rahul-led side.

Note: In the WTC, teams will get 12 points for a win, 4 for a draw, and 6 for a tie. Points percentage system (PCT) will be used to determine the leaderboard. PCT = Points won by a team / Points contested * 100.

World Test Championships Points Table

Australia – 96 points (11 matches) – 72.72%
South Africa – 72 points (10 matches) – 60%
Sri Lanka – 64 points (10 matches) – 53.33%
India – 75 points (12 matches) – 52.08 %
Pakistan – 56 points (10 matches) – 46.66%
West Indies – 54 points (10 matches) – 45%
England – 100 points (20 matches) – 41.66%
New Zealand – 28 points (9 matches) – 25.93%
Bangladesh – 16 points (10 matches) – 13.33%

Notably, India have six Tests left in their current WTC cycle. If they whitewash Bangladesh, they can afford to lose a Test against Australia at home and still manage to make the finale.

Here’s how India can qualify for the WTC Finals:

India’s next Test assignment is against Bangladesh and a 2-0 win will boost their chances of making it to the final.
India will then host current leaders Australia in a four-match series. One defeat in the series would be enough to put India on the threshold of missing the final. Hence, assuming India beat Bangladesh 2-0, they would need at least three wins and a draw against Australia to qualify with a minimum PCT of 64.35.
If India win all of their next six matches, their win percentage will jump to 68.06 and they will stand a good chance of playing the title match.
Also, India will hope that South Africa lose atleast three of their five remaining Tests because if Proteas win minimum three games and avoid defeat in the remaining two matches then their minimum PCT will be 64.44, which can put India’s chances of making it to the final in jeopardy.
Meanwhile, current third-placed Sri Lanka are scheduled to play only two more Tests in this cycle which will be against New Zealand. The Island nation can best get to a PCT of 61.9 even if they win their remaining matches. Hence, Sri Lanka hold a narrow chance of making it to the final as their fate largely depends on other results.

So, the bottom line is that India need to register at least five wins and a draw, and also hope that South Africa lose minimum of three matches in order to jump to the second position in the points tally thus qualifying for the WTC Finals.

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