Russian forces are suffering massive losses in Ukraine, as the war enters its third week. There’s a possibility of Vladimir Putin turning to Alexander Lukashenko for help
Russian President Vladimir Putin met his Belarusian counterpart Alexander Lukashenko at the Kremlin in Moscow on 11 March, days ahead of the invasion. AFP
The United Nations and the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation believe that Russia’s closest ally Belarus could join the war in Ukraine. It is already taking steps to enter the conflict, as reports emerge of Russia facing massive personnel losses in the war.
Russian president Vladimir Putin needs support. “Anything would help,” a NATO military official told CNN.
For starters, Belarus has evacuated its embassy in Ukraine. It’s a move similar to Russia, which closed down its embassy in Kyiv two days before the 24 February invasion.
It’s not simply a show of support from Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko to Putin, but could signal a game-changing move, according to Al Jazeera.
Media reports suggest that thousands of Belarusian soldiers are ready to enter Ukraine in the coming days. Meanwhile the Lukashenko government is creating an environment to “justify a Belarusian offensive against Ukraine”, a NATO intelligence official told CNN.
The Russian army is facing heavy losses in recent days and not making much progress. According to the Russian defence ministry, 498 soldiers have died and 15,000 wounded. However, Ukrainian and American officials say Russia has suffered anywhere between 10 to 30 times as many casualties with some of its top generals being killed.
An attack on Ukraine’s western region on the cards?
It’s the key reason why Putin might turn to for Belarus for help. The Belarusian forces are likely to assist Russian troops in seizing the Ukrainian capital of Kyiv, which has been withstanding the attack for almost a month now.
According to a Ukrainian intelligence official, Belarus may send around 15,000 military personnel into the war-hit country in three waves of 5,000 each.
Ukraine sees a high risk of an attack on its western Volyn region being launched from Belarus, President Volodymyr Zelenskiy’s office said on 20 March, reports Reuters. This is the main supply route for aid coming from the West
In televised remarks, Major General Viktor Yagun of the Ukrainian Security Service said that Lukashenko no longer “commands his army” and the Belarusian top brass is “managed by Russia”.
Talking about a full-scale invasion, Nikolay Mitrokhin, a Russia researcher with German’s Bremen University in Germany, told Al Jazeera, that Belarus might help Russia advance towards three major Ukrainian cities to cut off the resources it has being receiving from the West.
“The invasion may go to Lviv, Kovel, Lutsk so that it could cut Ukraine from its western borders or, at least, get Ukrainian reserves entangled in the war and to test how battle-ready they are,” he said.
When Belarus changed its constitution
A part of Russia’s attack on Ukraine has been launched from Belarus’ territory. Last month, Russian troops gathered in Belarus before the invasion, but the two countries claimed it was nothing more than a military exercise.
This handout satellite image released by Maxar Technologies shows troop tents and equipment from Russian ground forces in Dublin, a village in the Gomel region of Belarus on 18 March. Maxar Technologies/AFP
On 27 February, Belarus made changes to its constitution which allowed Russian troops and nuclear weapons to be stationed permanently in the country. In the referendum, Belarus renounced its nuclear status.
“If you [the West] transfer nuclear weapons to Poland or Lithuania, to our borders, then I will turn to Putin to return the nuclear weapons that I gave away without any conditions,” Lukashenko had said.
Whom does the final call rest with?
The final decision on Belarus’ involvement will be made in Moscow. A NATO military official told CNN, “It is not about what Lukashenko wants. The question is: Does Putin want another unstable country in the region?”
Sanctions have been imposed on Belarus for offering support to Russia. The United States has also sanctioned Lukashenko and his wife, blocking their properties and interests in America and prohibiting its nationals from engaging in transactions with them.
After Putin recognised Ukraine’s Donetsk and Luhansk as independent states, Lukashenko urged Ukrainians to “stop” their confrontation with Russia and abandon their US “masters.” “Stop! Shoo away these masters from over the ocean. They won’t bring you any happiness,” he had said.
Old ties
Lukashenko has been in power in Belarus for almost three decades. In 2020, when the West sanctioned him for rigging elections, it was Putin to aided Belarus’ economy.
In the late 1990s, Lukashenko and then Russian president Boris Yeltsin agreed to a merger of Russia and Belarus. The Belarusian strongman aspired to replace Yeltsin but Putin came in.
Lukashenko stalled the merger but has been getting multibillions loans and trade preferences from Moscow. When Russia and Ukraine relationships severed, he used it as an opportunity to fill his coffers, according to a report in Al Jazeera.
He is now using the war rhetoric to possibly do the same. But participating in the war is not without its consequences. It will destabilise Belarus, open it to more sanctions, and will further hit its economy. The only way then is to continue using Russia money to keep the country running.
Belarus’ participation will, of course, change the face of the war. But will it force the US and NATO to join in?
With inputs from agencies
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