A masked woman walks past a medical worker in protective gear as she leaves the fever clinic in Beijing, Monday, Dec. 19, 2022. AP.
Beijing: In China, hospitals are swamped with patients as Covid-19 makes a comeback in the Asian nation soon after Xi Jinping administration relaxed zero-Covid policy restrictions. There is no quick respite for people as the ongoing wave in China is expected to last till next year.
Epidemiologist and health economist Dr Eric Feigl-Ding estimate that 60 per cent of China’s population is likely to be infected over the next 90 days. “Deaths likely in the millions–plural,” he added.
According to Eric, bodies were seen piled up in hospitals in Northeast China. “Let whoever needs to be infected infected, let whoever needs to die die. Early infections, early deaths, early peak, early resumption of production,” the epidemiologist said terming it to be summary of Chinese Communist Party’s (CCP) current goal.
Doubling time possibly ‘hours’
“Now in China, the doubling time is like hours,” a report by npr.org quoted epidemiologist Ben Cowling as saying, adding, “Even if you manage to slow it down a bit, it’s still going to be doubling very, very quickly. And so the hospitals are going to come under pressure possibly by the end of this month.”
Eric said, “R is hard to calculate f doubling is more than one day because it’s hard to PCR test that fast.” The R is number by which rating of coronavirus or any disease’s ability to spread.
“The point is China and the Earth is in deep trouble,” Eric said.
The npr.org quoted scientists at the China National Health Commission estimate the R number is currently a whopping 16 in the country during the ongoing surge.
China Covid explosion
The Covid-related deaths in mainland China are being hugely unreported outside of the country. A report by the Central New Agency stated that through a survey of hospitals, funeral parlors and related funeral industry chains in Beijing.
Also Read: China Covid scare: Fever medicine sold out in Beijing, crematoriums ‘packed’ as cases soar
“There is a recent explosion in funeral services caused by the sharp increase in deaths,” Eric said.
Shortage of medicines
Earlier this week, people of Zhuhai city in China rushed to a pharmaceutical factory to purchase ibuprofen as it was “completely sold out elsewhere”. Also, there is an alleged shortage of antibiotics and fever medicines.
‘Thermonuclear bad’
Worried about more cases and fatalities due to Covid, Eric said, “What happens in China doesn’t stay in China — Wuhan was our less three years ago. The global fallout of this 2022-2023 wave will not be small.”
He further warned, “… this will be the start of another ‘Thermonuclear bad’ COVID wave worldwide? Not necessarily via virus directly — but the global economic fallout from China’s new mega tsunami wave will be ugly. You can ignore my words at own peril.”
Covid deaths pegged at 2 million
Eric went on to say, “1-2 million deaths in China is a very common number lately — I have seen the models — it’s certainly possible. It could be higher if (China) government doesn’t do anything, lower if government curbs virus with heavy mitigations again. But anti-China-zero-COVID folks should accept their hand in this.”
This comes just weeks after restrictions on COVID were lifted, he added.
Vaccination in China
With soaring number, all have one question whether the vaccines administered to people of China are effective and save them from falling critically ill.
Eric said there has been a lot of vaccine resistance among the elderly. “Additionally, the newer Omicron sub variant, two shots not enough – and three shots of China’s main CoronaVac may not be enough again for bad evasive new variants.”
He further said that a “deeper problem” lies in the “weaker” CoronaVac (by SinoVac) and Sinopharm vaccines.
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“Notice how even with 3 shots of main CoronaVac shot, neutralization performance against newer recent #omicron variants is poor — this is bad. China isn’t using bivalent yet,” he added.
China needs mucosal vaccine
China has recently approved an aerosolised (inhaled) vaccine delivered via a nebulized form. It is said to have produced a greater antibody response than intramuscular and also raised antibodies over nine-fold, and at lower dose. “Mucosal vaccines could be key,” Eric asserts.
“More importantly, inhaled vaccines also have the potential to induce a broader ‘mucosal immunity’, which could better defend against breakthrough infection, not just severe disease. This is why we need a mucosal vaccine trial funded soon,” he added.
Was China’s zero-Covid policy effective?
Eric says China lifted some of the most severe restriction of the stringent zero-covid policy, but still left “a lot of mitigations. China did not throw rip up everything and reopen like UK or US did.”
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