If Beijing wants Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s presence in the two summits in China, it must first pull its soldiers back from the LAC in eastern Ladakh
File image of Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi.
After almost two years of military standoff along the Line of Actual Control (LAC) in Ladakh, Beijing, with Foreign Minister Wang Yi’s visit, has reached out to New Delhi to revive bilateral dialogue.
One simply cannot ignore the timing of the revival of talks, especially when the Japanese Prime Minister, Fumio Kishida, was visiting India to announce an investment worth $24 billion. In quick succession, the Australian counterpart, Scott Morrison, announced a $15 billion investment to intensify ties between the Quad nations. It does, however, imply that Quad is here to stay, and that in the future, it will be more than just a counterbalance to China’s growing assertiveness in the region, but also an opportunity to discuss development, vaccines, technology, climate change, and supply chain management, to name a few topics.
When it comes to Chinese aggression, it is clear that India will stand its ground and, if needed, will align based on matters of national interest. Even after 15 rounds of commander-level discussions between India and China, the talks are still inconclusive. With Wang’s visit, it is an indication that Beijing is ready to compromise. Earlier instances of such compromise were seen in the Doklam standoff when the Chinese political bureau jumped in to de-escalate the situation.
It is to be noted that with Moscow caught up in a conflict with Ukraine, Beijing would certainly not want to rely on Pakistan, which is already facing heat with its economy in shambles and the uncertain future of Prime Minister Imran Khan. Moreover, countries such as the UAE, Iran, Israel, and the United States show their alacrity to engage and commit to investment with India, which speaks volumes about the growing stature of India’s foreign policy in the international order.
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This brings us to the question: Why does Beijing wish to engage with New Delhi now? There are two reasons for that.
First, while the formation of the Quad was aimed at safeguarding joint security interests in the Indo-Pacific, it promoted a shared consensus, which was brought out through the joint statements about the ongoing conflict and humanitarian crisis in Ukraine, as it had broader implications in the region. With New Delhi pursuing an independent policy on the Ukraine crisis and all the other members accepting the difference, it says a lot about the matured democratic partnership that appreciates dissent yet works together towards being partners for development and cooperation.
Second, China wants Prime Minister Narendra Modi to visit China for the BRICS and RIC summits being held there. Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi was in New Delhi earlier this week. But he was royally snubbed, and conveyed in as many words that standoff and good relations couldn’t go together. The visit was aimed at bolstering the diplomatic initiatives led by China to bring India-China ties to normal enabling it to successfully conduct the BRICS and RIC summits.
BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa) have become even more crucial with the ongoing pandemic, geopolitical upheavals, and the international landscape’s evolution, especially for global governance and the evolution of international order. The BRICS summit without the participation of Prime Minister Modi would be a non-event as Beijing’s wish to continue bilateral relations by turning a blind eye on the Galwan is a proposition which New Delhi won’t negotiate with. While China has consistently argued that “some forces have tried to create division between the two Asian countries,” it completely forgets its own deeds on its borders.
In addition, many countries in the Indo-Pacific were becoming concerned about the Quad’s rise as a military alliance. It led to China banding up with Russia, Iran, and Pakistan, making many heads turn with their naval drills in the Indian Ocean. With Russia shifting its focus to the Ukraine conflict, Iran offering oil to New Delhi and Pakistan facing regime change threats, Beijing understands that it is getting into a tight spot.
At this point, we see that China is becoming warier of the Quad members’ developing cooperation. While China claims it cannot be contained, and it is right, it forgets that other powers in the region are now setting the terms of engagement and India is stirring this response. Even before, history has seen that India isn’t shy of walking alone, but with the ongoing crisis and increased assertiveness by China, New Delhi wouldn’t shy away from using its years of goodwill among nations to challenge the bullying power.
The great game of diplomacy has begun. The ball is now in the Dragon’s court: If it wants Prime Minister Modi’s presence in the two summits in China, it must first pull its soldiers back from the LAC in eastern Ladakh. The sooner it is done, the better it is for peace and prosperity in the region.
Yuvraj Pokharna is a Surat-based educator, columnist, and social activist. Arpan Chakravarty is Honorary Assistant Director Strategy at Alexis Group. Views expressed are personal.
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