The analysis of the margin of votes of winners and runners up reveal that the name of BJP candidates not only figure in the list of candidates winning with narrowest margin of votes, but also highest margin of votes.
Representational image. PTI
The results of 18th Assembly election of Uttar Pradesh have bulldozed numerous tall claims, and hence, to justify them several conspiracy theories have been floated up. The concealment of mandate through EVM manipulation has been dominated since the 2017 election, but this time tampering in the electoral roll has been added. It is alleged that locally names of supporters of Opposition parties were strategically eliminated from the electoral roll, and hence, the Opposition parties lost many seats with narrow margins. To support this, numerous images have been circulated on social media claiming that the margin of victory between the incumbent BJP and the challenger SP has been below 2,000 votes on so many seats. The claims about the number of such seats have been varying.
Although the electoral roll tampering allegation cannot be verified at this stage, claims about the margin of victories can be analysed easily. Based on the constituency wise trend of election result data of the Election Commission of India (ECI), I analyse the margin of votes of various parties.
Margin of Victory Below 2,000
Figure 1 shows the party-wise margin of victory of candidates. There are 29 candidates who have won the election with a margin below 2,000, out of which 18 candidates have been from the BJP and its allies whereas 10 candidates have been from the SP and its allies. One candidate has been from the Congress.
Figure 1: Party-Wise Victory Margin of Candidates
Table 1 provides information about the top 10 candidates who have won the election by a narrow margin. Among all candidates Ashok Kumar Rana of the BJP has defeated Naimul Hasan of the SP with a narrowed margin of votes (203) in the Dhampur constituency of Bijour district, followed by Sakendra Pratap of the BJP in the Kursi constituency of Barabanki district. Pratap has defeated Rakesh Kumar Verma of the SP; Rakesh is son of late Beni Prasad Verma, the stalwart Kurmi leader of Uttar Pradesh.
Table-1: Top 10 Candidates Winning with Narrowest Margin of Votes
Constituency
Const. No.
Winner Candidate
Winner Party
Runner Candidate
Runner Party
Margin
Dhampur
20
ASHOK KUMAR RANA
BJP
NAIM UL HASAN
SP
203
Kursi
266
Sakendra Pratap
BJP
Rakesh Kumar Verma
SP
217
Chandpur
23
SWAMI OMVESH
SP
KAMLESH SAINI
BJP
234
Nehtaur
21
OMKUMAR
BJP
MUNSHIRAM
RLD
258
Ram Nagar
267
FAREED MAHFOOZ KIDWAI
SP
SHARAD KUMAR AWASTHI
BJP
261
Isauli
187
MOHD TAHIR KHAN
SP
OM PRAKASH PANDEY
BJP
269
Bilaspur
36
Baldev Singh Aulakh
BJP
Amarjeet Singh
SP
307
Baraut
51
KRISHAN PAL MALIK
BJP
JAIVEER
RLD
315
Nakur
2
MUKESH CHOUDHARY
BJP
DR. DHARAM SINGH SAINI
SP
315
Margin of Victory Above 1 lakh Vote
Figure 1 further reveals that there are 11 Assembly constituencies where the margin of victory has been more than one lakh votes. All such constituencies have been won by the BJP candidates. Table 1 provides further description about such candidates. Sunil Kumar Sharma of the BJP has defeated his rival Amarpal Sharma of the SP with the highest margin of votes (214,835) in the Sahibabad constituency of Ghaziabad district. Pankaj Singh, son of Defence Minister Rajnath Singh, is at the second position defeating his rival with the highest number of votes. The name of Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath also figures in this list, and his name is at the 10th position.
Table 2: Winning Candidates with Victory Margin of More than 1 Lakh
Constituency
Const. No
Winner Candidate
Winner Party
Runner Candidate
Runner Party
Margin
Sahibabad
55
SUNIL KUMAR SHARMA
BJP
AMARPAL SHARMA
SP
214835
Noida
61
Pankaj Singh
BJP
Sunil Choudhary
SP
181513
Dadri
62
TEJPAL SINGH NAGAR
BJP
RAJKUMAR BHATI
SP
138218
Meerut Cantt.
47
AMIT AGARWAL
BJP
MANISHA AHLAWAT
Rashtriya Lok Dal
118072
Agra North
89
PURUSHOTTAM KHANDELWAL
BJP
SHABBIR ABBAS
Bahujan Samaj Party
112370
Mehroni
227
Manohar Lal
BJP
Kiran Ramesh Khatik
Bahujan Samaj Party
110451
Mathura
84
SHRIKANT SHARMA
BJP
PRADEEP MATHUR
Indian National Congress
109803
Lalitpur
226
Ramratan Kushwaha
BJP
Chandra Bhusan Singh Bundela (Guddu Raja)
Bahujan Samaj Party
107215
Ghaziabad
56
Atul Garg
BJP
Vishal Verma
SP
105537
Gorakhpur Urban
322
ADITYANATH
BJP
SUBHAWATI UPENDRA DUTT SHUKLA
SP
103390
Hathras
78
ANJULA SINGH MAHAUR
BJP
SANJEEV KUMAR
Bahujan Samaj Party
100856
Battle for the Second Position
Figure 2 provides a description about the number of seats each political party acquired at the second position. The figure reveals that the SP candidates acquired the highest number (223) at the second position in the electoral contest, followed by the BJP candidates (115). The most interesting revelation is about the BSP which trails RLD even at the second position. Nineteen RLD and 18 BSP candidates are at the second position.
Figure 2: Political Parties at the Second Position
The analysis of the margin of votes of winners and runners-up reveal that the name of BJP candidates not only figure in the list of candidates winning with narrowest margin of votes, but also highest margin of votes. The Opposition needs to work not only in those constituencies where the victory margin is narrow, but also where the victory margin is widest.
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