Dubbed the Davos of Defence, the Munich Security Conference — that ran from 17 February to 19 February — attracted a lot of attention this year. As the Russia-Ukraine war draws closer to the one-year mark, heads of state, generals, intelligence chiefs and top diplomats from around the world spoke about the matter and the future of the world amid this crisis.
On the sidelines of the Munich Security Conference, United States secretary of state Antony Blinken painted a terrifying picture as he warned that there was a high probability that China may be about to provide lethal aid to help Russia in the war in Ukraine.
Blinken also confronted China’s foreign minister Wang Yi — at a time when tensions between the two countries was high over the US shooting down an alleged Chinese surveillance balloon — telling him Washington believed that China was “considering providing lethal support to Russia in its efforts in Ukraine,” Blinken said in an interview with Margaret Brennan of CBS News.
“And I was able to share with him, as President Biden had shared with President Xi, the serious consequences that would have for our relationship,” Blinken said.
What does it mean if China does, in fact, give weapons to Russia in the war? Will it change the outcome of the conflict? We examine the situation.
China to supply arms to Russia?
The answer as of now is no. Beijing hasn’t provided Moscow with weapons or ammunition, but it’s a worry that the US has now voiced.
On Sunday, Blinken said to several American media outlets that there were apprehensions over China’s support of Russia’s military, specifically that Beijing is considering supplying Moscow with “lethal support.”
CNN reported that US officials also voiced this worry at the Munich Security Conference saying that there are signs that Beijing wants to “creep up to the line” of providing lethal military aid to Russia without getting caught.
Neither the officials nor Blinken described what aid China was mulling to provide Russia. Blinken did say that the aid would consist of weapons and ammunition, but did not give any further details.
In an interview with CBS, Blinken said, “We’ve been concerned from day one about that possibility.” When pressed on the type of “lethal aid” that China is considering, Blinken responded, “There’s a whole gamut of things that — that fit in that category, everything from ammunition to the weapons themselves.”
US secretary of state Antony Blinken at the Munich Security Conference said that there was a possibility that China would supply arms to Russia, a clear crossing of a red line. File image/AFP
Blinken in his meeting with his Chinese counterpart, Wang Yi, also raised the issue, with senior State Department officials saying, “The Secretary was quite blunt in warning about the implications and consequences of China providing material support to Russia or assisting Russia with systematic sanctions evasion.”
US vice president Kamala Harris in her speech to the security conference also warned China against providing lethal equipment to a country that she said the US had judged was committing crimes against humanity. But Harris in her remarks did not assert that such lethal aid was about to be provided.
What is China’s position on the Russia-Ukraine war?
China hasn’t outrightly condemned Russia for the ongoing war raging in Ukraine. Beijing’s formal stance on the conflict has been that “all countries deserve respect for their sovereignty and territorial integrity” and that “support should be given to all efforts that are conducive to peacefully resolving the crisis”.
However, despite articulating this stance time and again, China’s attitude has been described by the West as a ‘pro-Russian neutrality’. Just days before Russia began its military operation in Ukraine — on 24 February — Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin announced a “no-limits partnership”.
Earlier in February, the Russian foreign ministry also announced that Xi would be visiting Moscow, though the dates were not announced, with the ministry simply stating that it would take place in the spring.
China has also been purchasing cheap Russian oil and gas, ignoring the West’s sanctions on it. Since the start of the conflict, China has displaced Germany as the largest purchaser of Russian oil.
Also read: How Russia earned $98 billion from fuel exports in first 100 days of Ukraine war
And while China hasn’t officially been providing Russia with military aid, it has been revealed that Beijing has been providing covert assistance to Moscow. In January, the Wall Street Journal reported that Chinese enterprises were providing navigation equipment, jamming technology, radar systems and fighter-jet parts to their Russian counterparts. It also reported that millions of chips — central to modern military equipment — have made its way to Russia through China.
Moreover, the US imposes sanctioned on a Chinese company for giving satellite imagery to the Wagner Group, the Russian private military force now heavily involved in the conflict. The Russian military is still able to get Chinese-made commercial drones to use in the war, The Wall Street Journal has reported.
China hasn’t outrightly condemned Russia for the ongoing war raging in Ukraine. File image/Reuters
China has also been giving diplomatic support to Russia through the war with its foreign ministry pushing an anti-American narrative. In August last year, the Chinese ambassador to Moscow called the US the “main instigator” of the war in Ukraine and accused Washington of seeking to “crush” Russia. “As the initiator and main instigator of the Ukrainian crisis, Washington, while imposing unprecedented comprehensive sanctions on Russia, continues to supply arms and military equipment to Ukraine,” Ambassador Zhang Hanhui was quoted as saying, adding, “Their ultimate goal is to exhaust and crush Russia with a protracted war and the cudgel of sanctions.”
What would China’s military aid mean for the war?
If China’s covert assistance to Russia does turn to overt, there is no doubt that the war would transform, turning it into a struggle involving the world’s three largest superpowers and their partners on opposing sides: Russia, China, Iran and North Korea aligned against the United States, Ukraine, and their European and Asian allies and partners, including Japan and South Korea.
Blinken in his statements on Sunday voiced the same fears, adding that it could spark a “new Cold War”.
A Cold War situation would cause only more mistrust and suspicion, causing hurt to economies across the world. Sergey Radchenko, a historian of the Cold War, in a VOX report said that a Cold War type situation would plunge the world into chaos and the Chinese are trying to take advantage of this chaos.
Some strategists also believe that by prolonging the Russia-Ukraine war, China will benefit the most. Firstly, a weakened Russia is now more dependent than ever on China. As an ORF report stated, “A Russia, engulfed in a quagmire of war, unable to extricate itself, whose access to the West has been cut off, has little option but to depend on China, therefore with little bargaining power.”
Also, the conflict has been a costly distraction for the US — the country has provided aid topping $100 billion.
While it’s uncertain if China will lend military support to Russia, a world starkly divided into two opposing camps is dangerous and prone to instability. And instability will hurt Beijing too — something they have already surely thought of. Hence, it’s a wait and watch game for the world to see which way this war pivots and when it shall end.
With inputs from agencies
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