The pleasant spring season bids a goodbye, as summer makes a quick entry over most parts of the country this week
Weather in India during the last week was a seesaw ride between spring and summer. A sluggish rise in day temperatures was observed in North and East India as weather remained mainly clear and dry.
Weather models analysis is indicating the development of “Anti-Cyclonic Circulation” over West India which is turning out to be a game-changer this week. So, what’s Anti-Cyclonic Circulation?
Anti-Cyclonic Circulation is an area of sinking air which results in development of high pressure over a large geographical area. Such areas experience a small pressure gradient, the atmospheric pressure and air does not change rapidly and winds become gentle in nature. As the air starts sinking, it warms up, leading to warm and dry weather.
In the northern hemisphere including India, the winds in Anti-Cyclonic Circulation rotate in clockwise direction. In layman terms, the building up of the high pressure area will cause dry weather in most parts for a week or at least next 10 days. As winds are supposed to be extremely dry, humidity levels go below 10 percent in peak afternoon hours along with exceptional rise in maximum temperature across India.
As a result, the pleasant weather of spring has taken an exit and summer has made a quick entry over most parts of India this week; “heat Wave” seems to have arrived earlier than anyone expected.
As per climatological data during mid-March the maximum temperature should remain in range of 30-33?C in Punjab, Haryana, Delhi, Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Jharkhand, West Bengal but it will take a sharp rise and reach in the range of 36 to 40?C from 15 to 19 March.
In Rajasthan, Gujarat, Maharashtra, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Telangana and Andhra Pradesh, the normal maximum temperature in mid-March is supposed to be between 34 and 36?C. By next week it is expected to reach in the range of 40 to 43?C.
An exceptional temperature departure from normal of +5.0?C to +12.0?C is expected at most places for a week or longer. Himalayan ranges are also going to get warm this week; maximum temperature departure from normal will be in the range of +7.0 to +15.0?C.
India’s maximum temperature records for the month of March are under threat of getting broken by this weekend in the period of 17 to 20 March and India is expected to celebrate Holi with record high temperatures.
As per terminology of IMD, heatwave is declared when the actual maximum temperature of the station reaches at least 40?C or above in plains and at least 30?C in hilly regions. Departure of maximum temperature from normal is +4.0?C to +5.0?C or more for the regions where the normal maximum temperature is more than 40.0?c and departure of maximum temperature from normal is +5.0 to +6.0?c for regions where the normal maximum temperature is up to 40.0?C.
Region-wise weather forecast till 19 March
North India
Significant Weather synopsis
o Dominating Anti-Cyclonic Circulation.
o Warm and dry westerly winds throughout this week.
Weather forecast for hills
Himalayas are expected to experience dry weather this week as no appearance of Western Disturbance is likely in Jammu, Kashmir, Himachal Pradesh and Uttarakhand. Both day and night temperatures are expected to rise by 2-3?C early in the week followed by further rise of 3-4?C around the weekend.
In Srinagar, the minimum temperature to cross the 5.0?C mark and maximum temperature is expected to stay above 20?C throughout next week and up to 25?C by the weekend. Similarly, in Shimla, minimum and maximum temperature will be recorded above 10 and 20?C respectively. Both minimum and maximum temperatures will be exceptionally above normal in the Himalayas.
Weather forecast for plains
Under the influence of Anti-Cyclonic Circulation, weather is expected to dry in Punjab, Haryana, Delhi NCR, Uttar Pradesh and Rajasthan during this week. Both minimum and maximum temperatures are expected to rise by 1-3?C in the beginning of week followed by a sudden rise in maximum temperature by 3-5?C leading to heatwave-like conditions for March standards by the weekend.
Most parts of South and West Rajasthan to record maximum temperature in range of 40 to 42?C, while Delhi, Haryana, Uttar Pradesh, Chandigarh, Punjab to record maximum temperature in range of 35 to 40?C during 15 to 19th March. Both minimum and maximum temperature will be exceptionally above normal during this week in plains of North India.
Expected Minimum and Maximum Temperature till 19 March
o Punjab: 13.0 to 18.0?C, 32.0 to 38.0?C.
o Haryana: 15.0 to 20.0?C, 31.0 to 40.0?C.
o Rajasthan: 16.0 to 23.0?C, 37.0 to 42.0?C.
o Delhi NCR: 16.0 to 20.0?C, 32.0 to 40.0?C.
o Uttar Pradesh: 16.0 to 21.0?C, 34.0 to 41.0?C.
Central India
Significant Weather synopsis
o Dominating Anti-Cyclonic Circulation.
o Hot and dry Easterlies wind throughout this week.
Under the grip of the high pressure area, clear and dry weather is expected in most parts of Gujarat, Maharashtra, Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh throughout next week.
Minimum and maximum temperature are expected to rise by 1-2?C in the beginning of the week followed by a quickheat up and rise in temperature by 3-5?C. The humidity levels will fall below 10 percent in peak afternoon hours and wind speed will be in the range of 5 to 15 km/h. There is no Rain Forecast for Central India. Both minimum and maximum temperature are expected to be exceptionally above normal during the upcoming week.
Expected Minimum and Maximum Temperature till 19 March
o Gujarat: 21.0 to 25.0?C, 38.0 to 43.0?C.
o Maharashtra: 19.0 to 26.0?C, 35.0 to 41.0?C.
o Madhya Pradesh: 17.0 to 22.0?C, 34.0 to 40.0?C.
o Chhattisgarh: 18.0 to 24.0?C, 36.0 to 41.0?C.
East India
Significant Weather synopsis
o Dry Northwest winds throughout this week.
o Hot Days and warm nights.
Following the trend of the past two weeks, weather conditions are expected to remain dry across Bihar, Jharkhand, West Bengal, Odisha and the North East this week. Hot winds will keep day temperature high and nights will start getting warmer with every passing day. Both minimum and maximum temperature are expected to remain appreciable above normal in the next week.
Expected Minimum and Maximum Temperature till 19 March
o Bihar: 17.0 to 23.0?C, 32.0 to 38.0?C.
o Jharkhand: 18.0 to 23.0?C, 35.0 to 40.0?C.
o West Bengal: 18.0 to 23.0?C, 34.0 to 39.0?C.
oOdisha: 19.0 to 25.0?C, 36.0 to 41.0?C.
oNorth East: 12.0 to 18.0?C, 25.0 to 33.0?C.
South India
Significant Weather synopsis
o Dry and hot Northerly winds this week.
o Local heat-induced thundershowers in Kerala on weekend.
Under the influence of dry continental winds, clear weather is expected in the southern states throughout this week. Both day and night temperatures are likely to increase by 2-4?C in Telangana, Andhra Pradesh, Karnataka and Goa, while it may rise by 2-3?C in Tamil Nadu and Kerala.
During 17-19 March parts of Kerala are expected to receive light to moderate rains and thunderstorms in few parts due to development of local convective clouds, they are common in the region during summers. Maximum temperature will be slightly above normal, while minimum temperature will be around normal in the southern peninsula this week.
Expected Minimum and Maximum Temperature till 19 March
o Telangana: 20.0 to 25.0?C, 35.0 to 41.0?C.
o Andhra Pradesh: 23.0 to 27.0?C, 34.0 to 38.0?C.
oGoa: 24.0 to 27.0?C, 34.0 to 36.0?C.
o Karnataka: 19.0 to 27.0?C, 34.0 to 39.0?C.
o Tamil Nadu: 24.0 to 27.0?C, 32 to 38.0?C.
oKerala: 23.0 to 37.0?C, 34.0 to 39.0?C.
The author, better known as the Rohtak Weatherman, interprets and explains complex weather patterns. His impact-based forecasts @navdeepdahiya55 are very popular in north India.
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