After one of the wettest June with 5343.3mm rainfall in Cherrapunji, in the turn of events it has not even touched 1,000mm rainfall mark in July
The Monsoon 2022 has completed its halfway journey as July came to an end.
The Indian Meteorological Department defines seasonal rains in India from June to September as a four-month stretch of wet weather no matter the dates of onset or withdrawal of rains. It is a fixed period considered in the terminology.
Overall the pan India rainfall performance so far in the two months has been normal to above normal.
If we deep dive into the data, 15 per cent of the country parts experienced large excess rains, 36 per cent excess rains, 31 per cent at normal rains.
About 18 per cent of the country has received deficient rains, while the number for large deficient and no rain category is 0 per cent.
As per IMD data, total monsoon seasonal rains in India from 1 June till 31 July:
o India as a whole recorded a total of 480.0mm rainfall against the average of 445.8mm, a departure from normal Stands at +8 per cent, it was at +11 per cent past Saturday.
A drop in pan India rainfall departure by -3 er cent is due to reduction in the heavy rainfall events over the west coast, Ghat sections and interiors of Western India.
Subdivision-wise seasonal rainfall figures:
o Southern Peninsula: Actual 467.0mm against the average of 365.5mm, +28 per cent departure from normal.
o East & North East India: Actual 635.5mm against the average of 752.5mm, -16 per cent departure from normal.
o North West India: Actual 300.9mm against the average of 287.8mm, +5 per cent departure from normal.
o Central India: Actual 577.6mm against the average of 491.6mm, +17 per cent departure from normal.
Some interesting rainfall trends in July in India:
India recorded 327.7mm rainfall in July which is 16.9 per cent above normal. In terms of actual rain this is the wettest July after 2005, in terms of percentage departure from normal this is the highest positive percentage departure from normal after 1994.
Shama in Bageshwar Uttarakhand recorded 1,650.0mm of rain, way higher than the wettest North Indian city of Dharamshala in Himachal Pradesh received 1058.0mm only.
Agra with 465.1mm is the wettest spot in the state of Uttar Pradesh Which usually experiences fewer rains compared to the cities in the foothills of the Himalayas like Bareilly received 172.0mm, Gorakhpur 104.8mm in the month of July a very significant rainfall deficiency is observed.
Drought-like conditions are prevailing in many parts of Bihar and Jharkhand. Bhagalpur recorded a mere 40.6mm rainfall throughout July and the sowing of Kharif crops in the states is largely impacted.
Interestingly despite less number of rainy days this season, National Capital Delhi noted normal rains so far with 286.3mm in July against the average of 209.7mm. The seasonal total so far stands at 310.8mm against the normal of 283.8mm the departure from normal is +10 per cent.
After one of the wettest June with 5343.3mm rainfall in Cherrapunji, in the turn of events it has not even touched 1,000mm rainfall mark in July. The observatory recorded only 891.7mm rainfall this month which is the lowest ever rainfall since the record keeping begun, the previous record was of 930.1mm in July 1942.
Region-wise key cities total rainfall accumulation in the month of July this year:
East India
Guwahati 180.7mmAgartala 142.6mmBhubaneswar 447.7mmDarjeeling 378.2mmDibrugarh 335.4mmGangtok 427.6mmImphal 118.8mmKolkata 275.0mmPasighat 391.1mmPatna 167.8mmRanchi 285.5mmShillong 207.6mm
North India
Prayagraj 78.9mmAmbala 351.3mmAmritsar 242.0mmBareilly 172.0mmChandigarh 473.3mmDehradun 589.2mmJaipur 298.5mmJodhpur 358.3mmLucknow 184.5mmDelhi 286.3mmShimla 357.5mmSrinagar 125.5mmVaranasi 154.4mm
Central India
Bhopal 853.1mmIndore 286.9mmJabalpur 337.7mmNagpur 627.6mmRaipur 283.1mmSatna 274.4mm
West India and Southern Peninsula
Ahmedabad 564.9mmAuranagabad 190.5mmBengaluru 191.9mmBhuj 474.2mmChennai 77.1mmGadag 151.0mmHyderabad 371.6mmMadurai 186.9mmMahabaleshwar 2795.6mmMengaluru 1571.1mmMumbai 1244.6mmPanaji 960.7mmPune 378.2mmRajkot 594.8mmTrivandrum 162.6mmVizag 73.1mm
Current synoptic features impacting weather in India as on 31 July:
The western end of monsoon trough at mean sea level continues to pass through Ferozpur, Rohtak,Bahraich and the eastern end runs close to foothills of the Himalayas.
The Western Disturbance is a cyclonic circulation over the central parts of Afghanistan andneighbourhood at 3.1 km above mean sea level with a trough aloft with its axis at 5.8 km above mean sea level roughly along Long.65? E to the north of Lat. 25? N persists.
The cyclonic circulation over Punjab and the neighbourhood between 1.5 km & 3.1 km above the mean sea level persists.
The cyclonic circulation over Rayalaseema and the neighbourhood at 1.5 km above mean sea level persists.
The North-south trough from south Chhattisgarh to Comorin area across Telangana, Rayalaseema andTamilnadu at 0.9 km above means sea level persists.
The trough from central parts of south Bay of Bengal to Comorin Area across south Sri Lanka coastat 3.1 km above mean sea level persists.
All-India weather forecast till 6 August
North India
The western arm of the monsoon axis passing over the plains of North India is supposed to hold position till early next week along with the slight impact of the Western Disturbance resulting in continuation of the ongoing spell of heavy rains over the western Himalayas as well as in the plains of North India.
Already surplus Punjab, Haryana and North Rajasthan will receive rounds of moderate to heavy showers till Wednesday, the non-stop rains started to have a negative impact on the cotton crops in the western parts of the state as the fields already have more than sufficient water and there is no scope of release in the unprecedented rains.
Meanwhile parts of Delhi-NCR, east Rajasthan and Uttar Pradesh will experience Scattered light to moderate showers along with one or two days with heavy rounds of rain in a few parts.
Following the trend of last week many parts of Jammu division, Himachal Pradesh and Uttarakhand will observe heavy rains in the next week, the water bodies in the Himalayas are flowing above the limits and the ongoing rains may exaggerate the situation, travelling or adventuring in the hills during adverse weather conditions could be life threatening this time around as Landslides and Cloudburst are the norms these days.
Expected precipitation accumulation till 6 August:
o Uttarakhand: 130mmo Himachal Pradesh: 110mmo Uttar Pradesh: 100mmo Haryana 80mmo Punjab: 70mmo Delhi NCR: 70mmo Jammu and Kashmir: 50mmo Rajasthan: 40mm
Central India
This week in the country’s heartland to start on a drier note. In the absence of any major weather systems mainly dry weather to persist in Gujarat, Maharashtra and Madhya Pradesh till Wednesday except some isolated light rains which may occur in patches.
Meanwhile Chhattisgarh will continue to receive scattered thunderstorms during this period.As per the forecasts the western arm of the monsoon axis will start shifting southwards by the mid-week along with the formation of fresh low-pressure area in the bay of Bengal, better rains will return in Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh and Maharashtra by the next weekend, overall for Gujarat the upcoming week to observe scanty rains which is indeed good as the state has already received surplus rains in the July and was flood-hit in some parts.
Expected precipitation accumulation till 6 August:
o Chhattisgarh: 80mmo Madhya Pradesh: 70mmo Maharashtra: 60mmo Gujarat: 20mm
East and North East India
The eastern arm of the monsoon axis will remain stable over the foothills of Himalayas for the next 3 days, this will result in good rainfall in the states of North East India, Sub Himalayan West Bengal, Sikkim and Bihar till Wednesday.
Meanwhile, parts of Jharkhand, West Bengal, and Odisha will observe scattered moderate Intensity rains to 3 August.
After a short break, the Bay of Bengal is all set to host a low pressure area by the end of the week, which is expected to enhance rainfall over parts of Odisha, Southern parts of Bengal andJharkhand by the next weekend.
On a larger note, the recovery of rainfall deficiency will not be observed over the next week and the region will continue to remain in a rain deficit despite an increase in rainy days.
Expected precipitation accumulation till 6 August:
o North East India: 120mmo Odisha: 90mmo West Bengal: 80mmo Jharkhand: 80mmo Bihar 60mm
strong>Southern Peninsula
As the Monsoon comes in a break phase over Central parts of the country, it is time for some rains in the interiors of Peninsula.The convergence on the lower levels will be benefiting parts of Karnataka, Tamil Nadu and Telangana over the next week.Moderate to intense rains or thunderstorms will be observed in the states daily in the late afternoon to evening hours, August to begin on a rainy note for Bangalore after a above normal July.Meanwhile on the lower latitudes the off-shore trough will be seen strengthening, under the influence of Westerly surge most parts of Kerala Coast and Ghat section to experience heavy to very heavy rains starting from 2nd August and likely to continue towards the end of the next week.Towards the end of the week the off-shore trough will start Strengthening across the west coast of India and rainfall spread and Intensity will start increasing over Coastal areas and ghats of Karnataka and Goa.
Expected precipitation accumulation till 6 August:
o Kerala: 240mmo Karnataka: 130mmo Goa: 110mmo Telangana: 60mmo Andhra Pradesh: 60mmo Tamil Nadu: 50mm
August to begin on a normal note for the country, the pan-India rainfall anomaly by the end of next week will remain in the range of +6 to +10 per cent and may improve gradually by the second week of August.
The author, better known as the Rohtak Weatherman, interprets and explains complex weather patterns. His impact-based forecasts @navdeepdahiya55 are very popular in north India.
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