The weather report: Heatwave conditions persist in North India; South and North-East to get some rain respite

As per the data released by Indian meteorological department, average temperature in March was 33.1?C, breaking the previous record of 33.09?C of 2010

India experienced the hottest March in the last 122 years. The unseasonal heatwave across north and central India contributed in making March 2022 the hottest ever since the record keeping began in 1901.

As per the data released by Indian meteorological department (IMD), average temperature in the March month was 33.1?C, breaking the previous record of 33.09?C of 2010. The advance formation of strong anti-cyclonic circulation along with scanty rainfall in north and central India in absence of Western Disturbances resulted in record-breaking heatwaves in India.

In the past week of 27 March to 2 April, maximum temperature was recorded above 40?C in various stations of Rajasthan, Gujarat, Maharashtra, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Odisha, Telangana, Jharkhand, Uttar Pradesh, Haryana and Delhi.

Last week, Chandrapur from Maharashtra, with 44.2?C maximum temperature on 30 March, was the hottest place in the country.

The pre-monsoon thundershowers were recorded in the interiors of Kerala, but dry weather continues to prevail in other parts of the southern peninsula. Meanwhile, north-east India is on a wet run. The pre-monsoon rains are very active in the states in presence of moisture feeding southern winds. The overall weather is cool along with heavy to very heavy rains, especially in Meghalaya.

The wettest village of India and one of the wettest places in the world ‘Mawsynram’ recorded 394.8mm rainfall ending 8:30 am on 2 April. Similarly, it received 330.6mm ending 8:30 am on 1 April.

Cherrapunji received 357mm rainfall ending 8:30 on 2 April; with this, it crossed the 1,000mm rainfall mark on 1 January 2022. Also, 357mm is the second highest one-day rainfall at least since 2011 for April; on 24 April 2016, it received 420.6m and the all-time record for April is 644.2mm on 16 April 1990.

As per the IMD data, pre-monsoon rainfall in India between 1 March and 2 April:

o India, as a whole, recorded a total of 10.8mm rainfall against the average of 31.5mm, departure from normal stands at -66%.

o Southern Peninsula: Actual 12.6mm against the average of 15.0mm, -16% departure from normal.

o East & north-east India: Actual 39.6mm against the average of 67.5mm, -41% departure from normal.

o North-west India: Actual 5.2mm against the average of 48.2mm, -89% departure from normal.

o Central India: Actual 1.1mm against the average of 8.7mm, -87% departure from normal.

All-India weather forecast till 9 April

o The anti-cyclonic circulation will continue to persist over west India in the upcoming week, but the strength of the system will be less compared to last week. Under the influence, mostly dry weather will continue in Jammu Kashmir, Ladakh, Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Punjab, Haryana, Delhi, Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Jharkhand, West Bengal, Odisha, Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh, Gujarat, Maharashtra and Telangana. Above normal minimum and maximum temperature will dominate the region along with heatwaves in various stations.

o This week, the moist southerly winds will keep producing heavy rainfall in Meghalaya, and light-to-moderate rains in Mizoram, Nagaland, Tripura, Manipur, Assam and Arunachal Pradesh. Temperatures are expected to stay below normal in north-east India and very cool comparatively.

o As the Lower level Wind Discontinuity (LWD) persists, pre-monsoon thunderstorms will occur in Kerala, parts of Karnataka and west Tamil Nadu in the upcoming week. Temperature anomaly in southern India will be around normal except in Telangana where it is expected to stay above normal.

o The Bay of Bengal is all set to host another pre-monsoon tropical disturbance by mid-week. A low pressure area is expected to form near the Andaman and Nicobar Island by Wednesday and it is expected to move west as per the latest tracks and also expected to intensify into a stronger system by weekend.

Region-wise weather forecast till 9 April

North India

Significant weather synopsis

o Anti-cyclonic circulation persists.

o Weak Western Disturbances over western Himalayas on Sunday.

o Dry and hot winds from N/W; Heatwave in stations.

As fresh Western Disturbances approach the higher reaches of Kashmir and Ladakh, light rains are expected in the region on Sunday and Monday. Weather in Jammu division, southern Kashmir, Himachal Pradesh and Uttarakhand will remain warm and dry throughout this week. The higher than normal temperatures will continue in the western Himalayas till 9 April as no strong western disturbance is in sight.

As anti-cyclonic circulation persists, the high pressure zone will maintain its presence in plains of north India. Weather conditions will be dry across Punjab, Haryana, Delhi, Uttar Pradesh and Rajasthan. In the presence of north-west winds, minimum temperature is expected to record a fall of 2-3?C on Sunday and Monday, leading to pleasant mornings as temperature anomalies will be around normal.

Maximum temperature will not register any significant fall, a very slight fall of 1-2?C is expected on Sunday and Monday and once again it will rise by 2-3?C next week. Maximum temperature will remain above Normal by 3-7?C in most stations. As actual maximum temperature will be above 40?C in Rajasthan, heatwave conditions will persist during the whole week.

Expected minimum and maximum temperature till 9 April

o Punjab: 14.0 to 18.0?C, 33.0 to 38.0?C.

o Haryana: 15.0 to 21.0?C, 36.0 to 42.0?C.

o Rajasthan: 18.0 to 24.0?C, 38.0 to 44.0?C.

o Delhi-NCR: 17.0 to 22.0?C, 36.0 to 41.0?C.

o Uttar Pradesh: 18.0 to 24.0?C, 37.0 to 43.0?C.

Central India

Significant weather synopsis

o Influence of anti-cyclonic circulation

o Dry W/NW winds.

Central India will continue to experience above normal temperatures as weather conditions are expected to stay dry throughout the week. The Vidarbha region of Maharashtra, south Madhya Pradesh and adjoining Chhattisgarh may observe maximum temperature in the range of 42-45?C; there are chances that India will see its first 45?C temperature from this region in the next few days. Heatwave conditions will be observed in Gujarat, Maharashtra, Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh as maximum temperature anomalies will be 3-6?C above normal in most of the stations.

Expected minimum and maximum temperature till 9 April

o Gujarat: 22.0 to 28.0?C, 38.0 to 43.0?C.

o Maharashtra: 18.0 to 26.0?C, 37.0 to 45.0?C.

o Madhya Pradesh: 20.0 to 27.0?C 38.0 to 44.0?C.

o Chhattisgarh: 22.0 to 28.0?C, 38.0 to 43.0?C.

East India

Significant weather Synopsis

o Moisture-feeding Southerly winds in north-east India.

o Dry Westerly winds in east India plains.

The pre-monsoon rains will continue to dominate the north-eastern states this week. Most parts of Meghalaya will observe heavy to very heavy rains. Scattered light to moderate rains and thunderstorms will occur in Assam, Arunachal Pradesh, Mizoram, Nagaland, Tripura and Manipur.

Moisture-feeding southerly winds reach north-east India and due to unique topography of the region the winds rise up and form convective clouds, bringing rains and thundershowers in afternoon to late evening hours. The maximum temperature is expected to stay below normal while minimum temperature will be recorded near normal.

Dry and hot weather will continue in plains of Bihar, Jharkhand, West Bengal and Odisha. Parts of Odisha and Jharkhand will continue to reel under heatwave as maximum temperature stays above 40?C in many stations and anomaly will be 4?C above normal.

Expected minimum and maximum temperature till 9 April

o Bihar: 18 to 24.0?C, 35.0 to 40.0?C.

o Jharkhand: 22.0 to 29.0?C, 37.0 to 43.0?C.

o West Bengal: 25.0 to 30.0?C, 35.0 to 40.0?C.

oOdisha: 25.0 to 31.0?C, 38.0 to 44.0?C.

oNorth East India: 15.0 to 21.0?C, 22.0 to 27.0?C.

South India

Significant weather synopsis:

o Lower level Wind Discontinuity (LWD) at south India’s west coast and nearby interiors.

o Dry and hot Northerly winds in the remaining interior peninsula and east coast.

Under the influence of LWD, light-to-moderate rains are expected to occur in Kerala, West Karnataka, Goa and west Tamil Nadu during this week. Mango showers occur daily in the evening hours and are scattered in nature.

Telangana, Andhra Pradesh, north and east Karnataka and Tamil Nadu are likely to experience dry weather throughout this week. Temperature is expected to increase by 1-2?C in the region compared to last week. Heatwave is expected in Telangana as maximum temperature might reach 42-44?C in some stations.

Expected minimum and maximum temperature on 9 April

o Telangana: 23.0 to 31.0?C, 38.0 to 44.0?C.

o Andhra Pradesh: 25.0 to 32.0?C, 36.0 to 42.0?C.

oGoa: 24.0 to 26.0?C, 33.0 to 36.0?C.

o Karnataka: 21.0 to 29.0?C, 34.0 to 40.0?C.

o Tamil Nadu: 27.0 to 31.0?C, 35.0 to 42.0?C.

oKerala: 23.0 to 29.0?C, 33.0 to 37.0?C.

The author, better known as the Rohtak Weatherman, interprets and explains complex weather patterns. His impact-based forecasts @navdeepdahiya55 are very popular in north India.

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