About six weeks after Pakistan Muslim League (N) president Shehbaz Sharif took oath as Prime Minister, Pakistan remains in deep disarray. Worse, there is no end in sight to its several and simultaneous crises on many fronts, including, political, security, foreign policy and, most critically, economic.
Pakistan’s political situation remains completely fragile. The earlier Opposition (and now government coalition) headed by the PML (N), the Pakistan Peoples Party (PPP) led by former president Asif Ali Zardari and the Maulana Fazlur Rehman-led Jamiat Ulema-e-Islam (F) succeeded in ousting the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaaf (PTI) president Imran Khan from the office of Prime Minister on 10 April. The high-voltage and no-holds-barred political drama which continued for over a month through March and early April threw the country into chaos as Khan tried every trick in the book and many outside it to prevent the success of the no-confidence motion moved against him in the Pakistan National Assembly on 8 March.
Khan failed for the Pakistan Supreme Court vigorously stepped in to prevent the fraud that the PTI was seeking to perpetrate by raising the bogey of a United States-led conspiracy to oust his government with the participation of the Opposition leaders. It ensured that the vote was finally held in the Assembly by making preparations to open the court late at night. On its part the Pakistan Army which has always been the final arbiter of the country’s destiny made an elaborate show of not intervening or interfering with the political process. However, it was the breakdown in relations between Army chief General Qamar Bajwa and Khan on the matter of the appointment of a new Director-General of the ISI in October 2021 that set in motion the events which culminated in the Khan’s departure from office.
While Imran Khan is out of office, he continues to be a potent factor in Pakistani politics. His claim that he was ousted because of a US-led conspiracy is prima facie wrong. For, it is one matter for a foreign power to want to see the de-seating of a leader and is quite another for that power to take action to achieve that objective. In this case there is little doubt that the US was uncomfortable with Khan and desired to see his ouster, but there is no evidence that it took steps to achieve that objective. It was indiscreet of the US official to inform the outgoing Pakistani Ambassador in Washington that Khan’s departure from office would be beneficial for Pakistan-US bilateral ties. Pakistan was within its rights to complain that this amounted to interference in its internal affairs and it did so.
While the Shehbaz Sharif government and the military establishment is making a distinction between interference and conspiracy, Khan has all along blurred it. Hence, his continuing claim that the present government is “imported” and an affront to Pakistan’s sovereignty and self-respect. His charge has many takers. This is driving him to vociferously press for elections to be held immediately. That would require the National Assembly to be dissolved and a neutral caretaker government’s appointment to oversee the election process.
The principal parties constituting the government have ‘decided’ that it must complete its term which in the normal course is till August 2023. They have also decided that election law reforms must be undertaken before Pakistan goes to the polls. They want the rescindment of amendments in election laws which gave voting rights to overseas Pakistanis and for the use of voting machines. The question is if with all the inherent contradictions between its constituent parties can this government last for over a year?
This is especially as it would be compelled to take difficult steps on the economic front, including withdrawal of fuel subsidies, to make Pakistan’s macro-economic situation viable. This will make it unpopular and perversely even though Khan was partly responsible for the country’s current economic distress, popular anger would be more directed at those now in power. Pakistan political elite and the military establishment though are aware that no major power want’s an economic meltdown in a country with nuclear weapons, strong fundamentalist social forces and ethnic fault lines. Hence, it will always be put on the ventilator when needed but even for that this government will have to take some unpopular measures. How will that play with coalition unity with Khan continuing to hit the street seeking immediate elections is imponderable?
Pakistan’s Supreme Court advice on the presidential reference (made when Imran Khan was Prime Minister) seeking its advice on Article 63-A of the constitution has added to the complexity of the political situation. It does not directly impact Shehbaz’s government but may affect his son Hamza’s in the Punjab province. Article 63-A makes it mandatory for members of the National and Provincial Assemblies to abide by directions of the party leadership in certain matters including votes of no-confidence. A failure to do so could lead a situation, if the party leadership so acts, to the de-seating of the concerned member. In this context the Court was asked if the vote cast by a member who acts against the party leadership in a vote of no-confidence should be counted. In a 3-2 opinion, the court advised that it cannot be counted.
PTI rebel members did not need to cast their votes against Khan for he lost the majority when his allied parties withdrew support and voted against him. Hence, the Supreme Court’s opinion does erode Shehbaz’s position. However, PTI rebels support is essential for Hamza’s position to remain secure. There are indications that PTI would now challenge Hamza’s government in the Lahore High Court and that could lead to fissures between Shehbaz and Hamza on one side and PML (N) supremo Nawaz Sharif and his daughter Maryam on the other on how to handle the situation. This is especially because the real contest in the next election — whenever it will be held — for the control of Pakistan between PML (N) and PTI will be in the Punjab. The Sharifs will also have to take into account the Supreme Court’s activism in insisting that the criminal cases against political leaders, including them, should be allowed to go on without political interference.
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This writer has argued that the Pakistan Army, especially senior generals close to the Army chief, would want Shehbaz Sharif to remain so long in office so as to appoint Bajwa’s successor. Imran Khan is now seeking to assure the Army that despite his support for the continuance in office of Lt General Faez Hameed as DG ISI last year, he has no desire to interfere with the working of the army. Strong if indirect negative statements have been made against Faez Hameed by some Pakistani political elements in recent weeks. The army has again and again urged political parties to keep it away from politics. Certainly, it may suit Bajwa who has announced that he will leave on 29 November at the end of his extended term to appear to be apolitical at present. But clearly the Army would not want Khan to be back in office after an election to choose the next chief. Given the present political uncertainties when even President Arif Alvi is continuing to behave as Khan’s minion rather than an impartial constitutional President nothing can be ruled out in Pakistan.
The army though will try its best that Shehbaz Sharif who, unlike his brother Nawaz, has had a working relationship with the generals appoints Bajwa’s successor. The Army is also keen that Shehbaz Sharif and Bilawal Bhutto-Zardari work to restore a balance to the Pakistan-US relationship. It seems good progress has been made in this direction during Bilawal’s recent visit to New York where he met US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken. Another issue of concern for the army is Afghanistan where its plans have not gone to plan. That will be a worry for Shehbaz Sharif too, but his primary focus would continue to be domestic and managing the economy.
The writer is a former Indian diplomat who served as India’s Ambassador to Afghanistan and Myanmar, and as secretary, Ministry of External Affairs. Views expressed are personal.
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