Punjab Assembly elections: Calls for change in Malwa give AAP a fighting chance

Usually outside party offices in election season, one would find people who are vocal supporters of that political outfit. But just near the Congress offices in Patiala, and in Chamkaur Sahib, News18 met a group of people who, after a brief chat, said the flavour this time is for “change”. Let’s give “them” a chance, it’s been over 50 years, they said.

From Mohali to Patiala, Ludhiana to Sangrur and till Bathinda and Faridkot in Punjab’s Malwa Belt — the phrase one hears the most is “we want change”, and the sentiment is for the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) just ahead of the 20 February 20 state Assembly polls.

But it comes with a disclaimer. “We hope it is not a repeat of the last time (in 2017) when AAP ran out of steam in the end. Have they done work in Delhi or are we backing them just out of ignorance?” asks Iqbal Singh outside the Congress office in Patiala.

Singh had come there from the nearby seat of Sanaur that the Akali Dal won in 2017. A Patiala local, Parminder Singh, says people are sick of the “VIP culture” associated with both the Congress and the Akali Dal. In Chamkaur Sahib, just outside the Congress office, a taxi shop owner Sonu Singh says “enough is enough” and asks what harm can AAP do if given a chance. “The voter will teach Congress and the Akalis a lesson,” he claims.

News18 spent a week traveling through 12 districts that comprise about 60 constituencies in the Malwa belt of Punjab, which sends over half of the 117 legislators to the assembly and often determines who comes to power in the state.

In the last elections, 18 out of the 20 wins for AAP came from Malwa while Congress bagged nearly 40 seats here while the Akali Dal suffered a massive loss due to anger over the sacrilege and police firing cases of 2015 in Faridkot.

This time, all the three chief ministerial faces in the state are fighting it out in the Malwa belt, underscoring the importance of the region. AAP’s chief ministerial pick Bhagwant Mann is fighting from Dhuri in Sangrur, Congress’ Charanjit Singh Channi is fighting from two seats here — Chamkaur Sahib and Bhadaur in Sangrur– while Akali Dal’s Sukhbir Badal is contesting again from Jalalabad in what has been a stronghold of his party.

A concern in the Malwa region among people is that while AAP does seem to have the momentum here, can it deliver votes in its favour on polling day? Also, succeeding in the other two regions of Punjab where it has been weak — Majha and Doaba — is a tall ask for AAP.

“It is the Congress and the Akali Dal which have the proven capacity to get their voters to the polling booth. The Dalit chief minister move by Congress will make the 32 per cent Dalit population flock to the Congress now as a bloc,” a veteran group of farmers told News18 in Barnala.

But AAP’s real strength seems to be among the youth, many of whom overwhelmingly say they will vote for it. “Es Vaari chaadhu firuga (This time, the broom will sweep all),” a group of students at the Punjabi University in Patiala said. While people have one complaint or the other with the Congress and the Akalis, there is no major grouse with AAP.

Gauging the mood

The move by the Congress to declare Channi as its CM face has made the battle in Malwa more interesting. Ask Congress supporters in the region and they say the mood for “change” is there but it is for the “change” that has already come to Punjab in the form of the 111 days of the Channi government.

“The 4.5-year-long Captain Amarinder Singh government is history. We had a new government in Channi and people have seen the ‘change’ under him,” Santokh Singh, a long-time Congress supporter, told News18 in Channi’s home seat, Chamkaur Sahib.

A couple of other Congress supporters in the nearby Bassi Pathana seat say Channi has become extremely popular in Punjab. The in-fighting in Congress, however, is a recurring theme in Malwa. It is manifested even in the Bassi Pathana seat where Chief Minister Channi’s younger brother Manohar Singh is contesting as an independent candidate against the Congress.

“Congress nu Congress hi haravgi (Congress will be defeated by the Congress),” a group of six college-going boys and girls in the Bathinda Urban seat told News18, from where senior Congress leader Manpreet Badal is contesting. Here, the Bathinda (Rural) seat candidate of the Congress openly alleges that Manpreet is plotting his loss.

The group complains of lack of jobs in Punjab and all of them are undergoing coaching for the IELTS exam with the dream of leaving for Canada. Some do see hope in Channi, terming him as a sincere and simple chief minister, and point out that he had literally no time to deliver given he got just 111 days. His comparison with Bhagwant Mann is also juxtaposed by some in villages abutting Mansa, as the latter has been infamous for his alcoholic ways.

“It is a fact that alcohol is not looked down upon in Punjab but as a CM, Channi looks stable and mature. On polling day, that may weigh on the voter’s mind. A vote for AAP, if it is, may well be for Arvind Kejriwal,” a group of elders in Mansa said.

Some voters also seemed disappointed at the fact that many AAP candidates are turncoats from either the Akali Dal or the Congress — against whom they had wished for change in their constituencies.

Other parties have been attacking AAP, saying over 40 tickets have been given by the party to such turncoats. “The only hope (for the people) is Kejriwal while Mann is the face. Channi remains an X-factor as he has brought some freshness,” Nihal Singh, a hardware goods shopkeeper in Fazilka, said.

Multiple AAP candidates told News18 that the Malwa region has been the party’s strength and the party’s influence has almost doubled since 2017; Malwa will secure AAP’s victory in Punjab as people are in awe of Kejriwal, they said. “Our CM face (Bhagwant Mann) is from Malwa,” they added.

Akalis not out of the race, two other claimants

AAP is not an option for people looking for stability and the Congress is rigged with infighting, so people will turn back to the tried-and-tested party Akali Dal, one hears in Talwandi Sabo and Bathinda from the supporters of the grand old party of Punjab. Not far from here, in Badal village of Lambi near Bathinda, is the mansion of the Badals where the father-son duo of Parkash Singh Badal and Sukhbir Badal are plotting their return to power. “People will vote for our development record. They know no one can do development besides us. The Congress is gone, no one wants them,” Sukhbir told News18 here.

In their pockets of influence in Bathinda and beyond in West Punjab, the Akalis remain a strong contender in multiple seats in the Malwa region. But the party seems to be on the back foot in the urban centres where, in multiple earlier elections, it had piggybacked on its former ally, the Bharatiya Janata Party.

No party seems to be sure whom the BJP-Captain-Dhindsa alliance or the farmer union party candidates will impact. In many villages of Malwa, which was the epicentre of the 2020-21 farmer agitation, News18 found the presence of the candidates of the farmer union and their door-to-door campaign to get villages to vote en bloc for them. On the face of it, they seem to be hurting the votes in some measure of both AAP and the Congress but do not seem in a position to win any seats.

Captain’s camp meanwhile seems determined by the sole motive of hurting the Congress’s chances in seats.

The election in Malwa, in the end, may well determine that for whom the sentiment of “change” ultimately becomes a wave — AAP, the “new CM” in Channi, or the venerable Akali Dal.

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