Myanmar — regardless of who governs its polity — is the crucial linchpin for India’s Act East Policy
Anti-coup protesters display a party flag of the National League for Democracy (NLD) during a demonstration in Yangon. AP
Even a year after the military takeover on 1 February, 2021, civil unrest continues to rage in Myanmar.
The latest incident was the 14 January attack by the Chin National Army on the Myanmar Army as well as the People’s Liberation Army (Manipur), an Indian insurgent group that had aligned itself to the Tatmadaw after the military takeover.
The call by Duwa Lashi La, the acting president of the National Unity Government (NUG), to accelerate the “People’s Defensive War”, albeit this time around by targeting “the military and its assets” has also witnessed a hitherto disunited resistance coming together to battle the Tatmadaw under a single command and control.
However, such a premise would rest on the NUG’s ability to commandeer a united front under a senior military leader from within the Tatmadaw who would be amenable to a defect-persuasion from the Myanmar Army. Such a military leader would have to be chosen with great care. Indeed, there may be many in the leadership of the Myanmar Army at this point in time who are not happy about the manner in which the army is oppressing its own people. Indeed, such a leader or a leadership could be encouraged to engineer a coup d’etat against the repressive actions of Senior General Min Aung Hlaing.
History is replete with such instances and it is being foretold that aspects in such a direction may not be impossible to envisage, especially as there have been defections from the Myanmar Army in recent times. But this would depend to an extent on the NUG’s capability of penetrating the senior echelons of the Tatmadaw and convince such a grouping that not only would such a military leader enjoy a high-ranking NUG affiliation but also the gratitude of the people of Myanmar.
After all, there certainly exists a second rung leadership in the Myanmar Army that is harbouring not only a sense of guilt about hanging on to power on the miseries of its own people, but “ambitions” of upstaging a dictator.
The case for Myanmar’s future in the international forum has become murkier as a result of divided voices. Important countries such as China and Russia have “supported” the military takeover and India has abstained from voting against the military takeover.
The ASEAN, too, in its summit on 24 April, 2021, did not make much of the takeover and there was a clear “both-sidesism” in the manner in which the representatives “blamed” both the Opposition and the military for the violence. Also, the fact that the summit was attended by Min Aung Hlaing clearly underscored that even the ASEAN “acknowledged” that henceforth they would have to work with the junta. This was also substantiated by the non-admittance of the National Unity Government (NUG), the shadow government that was formed to oppose the military in mid-April 2021.
However, the most important aspect that was being closely watched was the 76th UN General Assembly which ended on 27 September, 2021. The fact that Aung Thurein, who was appointed as the new Myanmarese envoy to the UN “did not speak” on the last day as he was slated to seems to be heralding an adverse sine qua non for the Tatmadaw. Such developments coming in the heels of the “People’s Defensive War” call by the NUG would have adverse ramifications on Naypyidaw’s objective of consolidating its position in Myanmar as also in the international arena.
But notwithstanding the developments that surround Myanmar’s future, India should ready itself with a strategy that is not only in line with its “Neighbourhood First” policy of which the “Act East” is a subset of, but also the issue relating to the Indian insurgent groups billeted in Myanmar. To that end, a recalibration exercise that takes into consideration a matrix that balances out well between ideology and pragmatism is the imperative of the hour. Such a policy should take into account the measures that Russia and China have taken to arm the Tatmadaw.
However, the dilemma that India would be faced with in the coming days is the manner in which the Ukraine crisis unfolds itself. Its abstention in the UN Security Council clearly showcases that it is taking the side of Russia because of its defence imperatives. But the question that is being asked is whether Chinese abstention in the council vote would not endear Beijing to Moscow, permitting thereby the much sought for leverage against India by way of possible pressure on Russia to soft pedal its defence aid to India.
After all, New Delhi’s quandary — if Kyiv were to fall to the Russian forces — would be the side it would ultimately take. On the one hand, there is apprehension that the United States may impose Countering America’s Adversaries through Sanctions Act (CAATSA) (despite the fact that it seems to have understood “India’s compulsions”) on it for continuing its defence relationship with Russia and on the other face the possibility of a Kremlin “cooling off” towards it if it is seen to be ambivalent in the face of a complete Ukraine takeover by Russia.
Furthermore, there would be a decisive strategic shift of the United States from the Indo-Pacific region to Europe, leaving India’s backyard vulnerable to inimical Chinese moves. Indeed, it is this “ambivalence” which has not only created a predicament for New Delhi even in its Myanmar policy, but actually endeared it to all right-thinking people around the globe.
Realpolitik after all is realpolitik and, therefore, Myanmar — regardless of who governs its polity — is the crucial linchpin for India’s “Act East Policy”. Even the much touted ouster of the Indian insurgents from Myanmar has experienced an about-face with many groups coming into an agreement with the Myanmar Army and the earlier show of solidarity by way of the optimism that had marked Op Sunrise-I and Sunrise-II which demolished the Indian insurgent camps in Myanmar have come to naught with the new understanding.
Such developments call for retrospection, recalibration and re-aligning one’s strategic objectives. Indeed, the present could well be India’s reckoning hour in more than one sense. But the fact that the Modi dispensation has shown immense steadfastness is not in question.
Jaideep Saikia is a well-known conflict analyst and author of several best-selling books. Views expressed are personal.
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