All sides are, at least publicly, hoping for a revival of the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, which saw Tehran drastically restrict its enrichment of uranium in exchange for economic sanctions being lifted
Representational image. Getty Images
Tehran and Washington began indirect nuclear talks in Doha on Tuesday with the European Union envoy playing mediator. The talks aren’t taking place between two sides directly because of Tehran’s refusal to do so with Washington.
Iran’s chief nuclear negotiator met with European Union envoy Enrique Mora, who will shuttle between the American and Iranian sides, as per state media.
Based in separate rooms in a hotel in Qatar’s capital, Iran’s Ali Bagheri Kani and US Iran special envoy Rob Malley will attempt to break a months-long impasse.
Let’s take a closer look:
What do they hope to achieve?
Ideally, a revival of Tehran’s 2015 nuclear pact with world powers.
As per Al Jazeera, all involved at least publicly agree that a restored nuclear deal is the best outcome as it will reduce tensions that could spill out into armed conflict.
If successful, it will also signal a full-scale return of Iranian oil to international markets, something that is increasingly in demand following the Russian invasion of Ukraine, as per the report.
What was the 2015 deal?
The 2015 accord known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) was agreed upon after initial contacts between Iran and the United States in the Gulf sultanate of Oman, which has long maintained good relations with both countries.
The deal saw Tehran strike an agreement with the permanent five members of the UN Security Council (Britain, China, France, Russia and the United States, plus Germany) to drastically limit its enrichment of uranium to 3.67 per cent in exchange for the lifting of economic sanctions.
The deal, which took effect in January 2016, allowed inspectors from the UN nuclear watchdog, the IAEA, to monitor Iran’s compliance with the deal.
What happened to that?
Donald Trump happened.
He won the 2016 US presidential election, and, two short years later, unilaterally withdrew the US from the nuclear agreement, calling it the “worst deal ever.”
Trump claimed he would get better terms in new negotiations to stop Iran’s missile development and support for regional militias.
Those talks never happened.
What happened next?
The Trump administration reimposed sanctions were lifted under the nuclear accord targeting a range of sectors from carpets and pistachios to gold and commercial aircraft.
The US then re-enforced the most onerous sanctions on Iran that had been lifted under the deal, targeting Iran’s vital banking and oil sectors.
Trump then designated Iran’s Revolutionary Guard as a foreign terrorist organisation, marking the first time the US blacklisted part of another nation’s military in this way.
How did Iran react?
By beginning to violate its core nuclear limits about a year later.
In May 2019, Iran announced it would begin backing away from the accord, setting a 60-day ultimatum for Europe to compensate for American-led sanctions before enriching uranium to higher levels.
By July, Iran announced it had exceeded the nuclear deal’s curbs on its low-enriched uranium stockpile. Iran began spinning advanced centrifuges prohibited under the 2015 deal by September.
How did talks resume?
Things began to change when Joe Biden beat Trump in the November 2020 election.
Though Iran’s parliament in 2021 approved a bill that would suspend UN inspections of its nuclear facilities and require the government to boost uranium enrichment after its scientist was killed (Tehran blamed Tel Aviv).Media
Iran in 2021 also began enriching uranium up to 20 per cent and denied IAEA access to its surveillance cameras, as well as data from its online enrichment monitors and electronic seals. However, it vowed to hold onto the tapes and give them back when granted sanctions relief.
By April 2021, indirect talks had begun in Vienna over restoring the nuclear deal.
By March 2022, US intelligence agencies warned that Tehran could seek 90 per cent enrichment if negotiations fail. That spurred urgency and for a while it seemed as if things were getting back on track, but talks ultimately failed after Tehran insisted Washington remove the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) from the US Foreign Terrorist Organization (FTO) list.
Another hold-up was Russia’s demand for guarantees that its ties with Tehran be exempt from Western sanctions over Ukraine.
Last week, one Iranian and one European official told Reuters that Iran had dropped its demand for the removal of the IRGC’s FTO sanctions, but still two issues, including one on sanctions, remained to be resolved.
What happens next?
No one really knows for sure.
But the signs aren’t that promising.
In June, Iran, preparing to install more cascades of IR-6 centrifuges at Natanz, began disconnecting 27 IAEA surveillance cameras at the country’s nuclear sites, further blinding inspectors.
Meanwhile, Israel, a staunch ally of the United States, has been fighting tooth-and-nail against the revival of the deal. Israel is seeking more sanctions and more pressure on Iran.
With inputs from agencies
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