Strategic expert Harsh V Pant, in an interview with Firstpost, explains the nitty-gritty of the Ukrainian crisis, and how it’s going to impact world politics
From long-standing border disputes to the Kremlin aiming to rewrite the power dynamics in its own backyard, Ukraine as a country has barely been able to enjoy its sovereign status. Ukraine has always been closely influenced and aided by the US, and Russia has been vehemently opposed to it, citing security concerns. Thus, Russia tried to portray Ukraine as a “failed state” to bolster its decision of declaring the separatist-held regions of Donetsk and Luhansk as independent. In two official decrees, the Russian President instructed his defence ministry to assume “the function of peacekeeping” in the Donbas region of Ukraine.
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This move triggered an avalanche of condemnation from around the world where stakeholders rubbished Russia’s peacekeeping claims, while Russia chipped away at Ukraine’s sovereignty to further strengthen its image at home and in the region. However, the issue is much bigger than just Russia, Ukraine and the US, as it delves into the territory of renegotiation of world order as a delayed reaction to the power blocks created post-Cold War.
In conversation with strategic expert Harsh V Pant, Firstpost tries to understand the power dynamics in play, historic context, future repercussions and its impact on India (as a country friendly with both the Kremlin and the White House) and the world. Excerpts:
How is India dealing with the Russia-Ukraine escalation?
India certainly has a difficult task at the moment and whichever way it moves it is going to displease one or the other. Ideally, India’s UNSC statements are pretty bland. “Look, we want to defuse the escalations…vital interest of all countries should be respected,” etc, is all fine but the reality is that this is not how the world is working.
India has good relations with both sides. It is a partner of the West, as well as the European Union. It wants America and Europe to be engaged in the Indo-Pacific to help India navigate around China. India, at the same time, has historical defence relations with Russia.
Russia’s foreign policy is largely based around an anti-West narrative and perception. Its closeness with China is remarkable and has grown, despite China and Russia not being natural partners. With them, we look at a relationship that is expansive. Vladimir Putin’s recent visit to China proves that.
In the long term, if the present scenario continues, we will see India moving away from Russia if it continues to get cosier with China. But, in the short term, India has to maintain a balance between the US and Russia. India is not going to jeopardise its relationship with either of the two sides and in some ways, India taking one stance or the other won’t change the ground reality.
The ground situation is being shaped by what Russia is doing and how the West is responding. If the US had played its cards better, they would not have seen this kind of entanglement between the Russians and Chinese. The West has been obsessed with Russia since the word go and China has blatantly utilised and creamed this rift for mutual benefits.
India’s role of the hour and for the future would be to largely shape Western attitude towards Russia. Antagonising Russia in the long term won’t do India any good but there is little India can do in the short term.
Does the growing friendship between Russia and China signify a shift in the world order?
World order is never static. It is always evolving and in some ways, the world order in the immediate aftermath of the Cold War was a unique moment in global politics, where there was such a huge dominance by one particular country in every respect — military, technological, political and diplomatic. It was quite extraordinary as a unipolar moment. Alas, moments don’t last forever.
America is still the predominant power in the world but other powers have also risen, China in particular. The problem here is, China is challenging some of the fundamental building blocks of the order that were created during World War II and I think the West woke up to the China challenge very late.
File image of Russian president Vladimir Putin meeting his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping in Moscow. AP
Now, the challenge is, on the one hand, you have China posing a massive strategic hurdle in the Indo-Pacific, on the other hand, you have the whole of Eurasia, whose borders created post-1990 are not settled yet.
Russians have long complained about this. NATO expanding to their doorsteps was something unacceptable as Russian security was being jeopardised. However, Europeans and Americans were not particularly bothered about Russian interests. This means, now, Putin can push back and create trouble for the West in their own backyard, like they are doing in Ukraine.
This situation at hand is much bigger than in Ukraine. It is about the geopolitical order in Europe post-Cold War and how Russia is demanding a renegotiation of the order. The interests of Russia and China converge in that respect.
Russia today is certainly not the traditional great power but it has enough mettle to create problems for the West. Coupled with China, it poses the ultimate strategic challenge for the US and the latter has gradually come to realise it. The US knows that there are going to be significant issues for the Western-led global order if something is not done about China. Whether the US can accommodate the interests of Russia while focusing on China remains to be seen.
The post-Cold War order is undergoing a fundamental transformation due to what is happening today. The rise of China and renegotiation of the status quo is creating a lot of flux in the system. Russia and China coming together is part of the larger story that needs deft handling. Unless the US is able to find a kind of strategic logic in its grand strategy, it would be very difficult for them to manage this particular moment where Russia and China are intent on challenging the global order fundamentally, as it exists today.
How legitimate do you think the situation is? Will further attacks take place? What does Putin identifying the separatist regions and his proposal/clarification of ‘peacekeeping entail?
It indicates that Putin is going all out to challenge the West on its statement, that he has no intention of backing down now, that it’s a matter of political resolve between Russia and the West. Putin feels that he cannot back down and in many ways, he can’t because one of the main reasons for his domestic political legitimacy is his perceived ability to stand up to the West. He is popular at home because he has managed to whip up hyper-nationalist fervour against the West. He is seen as the guarantor of the motherland. I don’t think Putin would be willing to back down now.
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He is willing to take risks to an extent where he is willing to go to war over it and so he has recognized the two breakaway regions of Ukraine’s Donbas area – Donetsk and Luhansk. If you think about it, it’s quite dramatic because Ukraine is a sovereign and along comes Putin saying “Yes, you are a sovereign, but you can’t take sovereign decisions. Your strategic decisions will have to be approved by me.” His message is, if Ukraine doesn’t know where its foreign policy is headed, it should ascertain the same with his consultation to avoid jeopardising Russian interests.
In this day and age, this is quite extraordinary. Putin is going back to the old sphere of influence logic. He is trying to assert that this is his area of influence and no one can dare touch it or enter the sphere. Ukraine is a symptom of a deeper problem that we have no cure for and no answers for how it may be resolved.
Putin also knows that the US has no appetite to fight. His stance in that sense is drastically different. He is willing to put troops on the ground while the West stays satisfied with imposing sanctions. I think Putin knows that he will be the one shaping policy response and he is in the driver’s seat.
I don’t think Putin has any interest in letting his troops stay stuck in Ukraine for years fighting an insurgency. But what Putin is signalling is that he is willing to risk a lot for what might seem to others as relatively meagre returns, but they help him in consolidating not only Russia’s strategic position but also his own position domestically.
What was the US’ role in the escalation of what is happening today?
The issue of America is slightly more complicated. They are willing to expand NATO without giving concrete guarantees to Ukraine. The inclusion of Ukraine is not on NATO’s cards. The Americans are not shaping Ukrainian policy in some fundamental way but maybe what happened is that they gave false hope to Ukraine. The modus operandi of Americans and Russians are slightly different.
What the West has been saying is that it is Ukraine’s decision what it wants — whether it wants to join NATO or not. But NATO certainly never said it would add Ukraine as a member. I think, for Russia, this is an excuse for a larger reordering of the region. It wants to use this as a reason to escalate the crisis and present a case to the West that they need to pull back now.
Do you think there is going to be an all-out war just to send a message?
An all-out war is difficult to think about because both Russia and America are nuclear-weapon states. A limited war may be more likely, but I think Russia’s ability to create trouble in Ukraine is extensive. They can keep the two breakaway regions restive, they can continue to provoke activity there and of course, they have Crimea under control. In a way, they have surrounded Ukraine and Ukraine’s ability to take any decision independently is very limited at the moment. For Russia, it is, at the moment, a win-win situation. They may not go to war but they have enough levers at hand to control all kinds of troubles.
Do you think the current escalations are headed in the direction of the Russo-German War?
It is a possibility, but I very much doubt they want to do it now because they have already escalated to the place where they are signalling that they want to go all out while the US is merely imposing sanctions. So, I don’t think accommodation is on the cards. Russia can certainly escalate but I don’t think they want their own soldiers to start dying. So long as it’s a low-risk escalation and they can demonstrate to the world that they can create these problems, I think Russia will be content. Beyond that they’ll be reluctant.
How will US sanctions on Russia adversely affect India?
If the ties between Russia and US are going down the drain, then there’ll be a lot more scrutiny of India in the US, by Congress especially. They would be angry with Russia and anyone doing business with Russia would have to face consequences. India has not been sanctioned under the Countering America’s Adversaries Through Sanctions Act (CAATSA) while Turkey has been.
If US-Russia relations deteriorate further after the conflict, Congress will try to seek answers — what kind of a partner India is, whether sanctions should be imposed on India, etc. India should also be on guard in this regard.
If Russia is slapped with sanctions, India’s ability to invest in Russia will be a problem. India’s private sector will not want to operate in Russia. More than 60 per cent of our defence equipment comes from Russia. So Russia would want to keep India in good humour as their defence exports are primarily reliant on India. In a sense, for India, it would be a juggling act to maintain smooth ties with both Russia and the West.
What is the probable impact of Russian interference on the independent relationship between India and Ukraine?
I don’t think India has any great dependence on Ukraine as such. The relationship is there but it is not a very extensive economic and trade relation. However, gas prices may increase drastically. This, in turn, will impact economic revival around the world if escalations continue. Then it becomes a global problem. No country may be deemed an island these days. The issue may become much more crucial to India’s economic and diplomatic policy-making in the future.
What do you think is unique about this escalation?
What is unique is that, in this day and age, Russia is taking a very 19th-century approach. This is very brazen. If the Russians and the Chinese would start to have military enclaves in Latin America, America may be uncomfortable but it will not go to war over it.
I think the willingness of Russia to go to such an extent over an issue that is not life-and-death or super urgent is very astounding. Russia used the pretext of humiliation post-1990s to carve out a position that is quite maximalist and disturbing in some ways. While India may not be willing to talk much about it due to its strategic ties with Russia, this can be a potential problem if countries around the world start talking in terms of spheres of influence. Then what is stopping China from entering our territory tomorrow and saying this is our enclave? This is my sphere of influence, what can you do about it?
I think India has always championed sovereignty and territorial integrity in international relations and this situation goes fundamentally against India’s belief. In the 21st century, we are talking about a conflict that mirrors the geopolitical environment of the 1990s, which is extraordinary and not many people are questioning it. Even in India, the commentary is highly sympathetic towards Russia.
Professor Harsh V Pant is the Director, Studies and Head of the Strategic Studies Programme at Observer Research Foundation, New Delhi. He holds a joint appointment with the Department of Defence Studies and King’s India Institute as Professor of International Relations at King’s College London.
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