It was essential for Prime Minister Narendra Modi to make a trip to certain European countries to explain India’s position on the Ukrainian war that is so divergent from that of the EU
Prime Minister Narendra Modi visited Germany, Denmark and France from 2 to 4 May to further expand bilateral ties. Twitter/@narendramodi
Why did Prime Minister Narendra Modi embark upon his maiden 2022 trip abroad to Europe? There are several significant factors that account for it. To begin with, one has to analyse the timing of the PM’s foreign visit to Europe.
There is a churning taking place in the global order largely due to two developments. One is the persistence of the global health crisis that has affected economies, politics and social relationships around the globe. The second development is a deeper strategic crisis in Europe decades after a relative calm. There were, of course, serious conflicts in Bosnia, Georgia, Azerbaijan/Armenia, and even in Crimea, but none of those challenged the foundation of the European security system.
The Russian invasion of Ukraine, on the other hand, has shaken the confidence of the European Union to maintain strategic stability and peace in the continent. Years of efforts to engage Russia in the post-Cold War era had crystallised a relationship between Moscow and Brussels that were marked by mutual trade, investment, movement of people and high level of political engagement. More significantly, the trust that Russia did not pose a threat to European security permitted close energy cooperation between Russia and the EU, which in a way made the latter dependent on Russian energy resources.
In addition, Russia and the United States had also evolved a mutual partnership in sectors as diverse as space cooperation to arms control to the maintenance of nuclear non-proliferation regimes. There were substantial differences between Washington and Moscow on several issues of international affairs, but such divergences did not threaten to spark a new Cold War between them. The US and the European countries in the meantime kept on following a policy that led to the roping-in of East European countries, once part of the rival Soviet-led Warsaw Pact Organisation, into the European Union and an enlarged North Atlantic Treaty Organisation.
Russia could do little to save its former strategic space that the Soviet Union had carved out during the Cold War era, falling into the sphere of influence of the Western powers. The Ukraine issue appears to be the last issue that tested Russia’s strategic patience and went beyond Moscow’s tolerance. Moscow repeatedly warned against making Ukraine a part of NATO and when that did not happen President Vladimir Putin invaded Ukraine.
The Ukrainian war now has ominous consequences for the peace and stability in Europe and portends an unstable global order in the foreseeable future. It was essential for Prime Minister Modi to make a trip to certain European countries to explain India’s position on the Ukrainian war that is so divergent from that of the EU. Second, it was also necessary to hear the European leaders and understand their points of view and future plans.
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Such summit level interactions with the militarily most powerful EU member country, France, and the richest EU member country, Germany, were aimed at not only mutual exchange of views but also meant for ensuring that India’s relations with European countries are not muddied by the war in Ukraine. France is a resident Indo-Pacific power, second most important source of Indian arms imports and a key strategic partner of India that shares to a great extent India’s worldview. Germany is the strongest economic powerhouse in Europe, a dominant player in EU’s decision making bodies and has deeper economic ties with India. Prime Minister Modi’s primary goal was to preserve India’s ties and wide-ranging cooperation with these two European heavyweights despite certain divergences on the issue of Russian invasion of Ukraine.
Prime Minister Modi also held summit level meetings with five Nordic countries — Denmark, Sweden, Norway, Finland and Iceland — that are smaller in geography and demography but economically and technologically advanced European countries. India is the only second country after the United States that engages the Nordic countries together in constructive cooperation in a range of sectors. Given the consensus-based decision-making in the EU, the political significance of maintaining cordial ties with these countries cannot be underestimated. Moreover, given the level of their economic development and technological progress, cooperation with these countries is indubitably desirable.
The Ukrainian war has reunited the NATO member countries, given political coherence to the European Union on matters of defence and security policy and strengthened the trans-Atlantic ties that had suffered considerable mistrust during the Trump era.
In the coming years, one may witness a politically more isolated Russia, economically a much weaker Russia relatively more dependent on China and a United States that is more active and vibrant in world affairs. India has neither supported Russian invasion of Ukraine nor backed the US-led sanctions against Russia. While Russia appears to be satisfied with Indian stand in the UN and Delhi’s decision to buy more Russian oil despite Western concerns, the United States and Europe appear less content with Indian stand in the UN, yet seek to maintain comprehensive ties with India.
In order to take advantage of the benefits of far-reaching cooperation with the US and its allies, it is important for Delhi to develop an understanding with them that critical differences on certain issues should not disrupt India’s relations with them.
In the presence of the Indian prime minister, the European leaders openly condemned Russian aggression and Prime Minister Modi boldly expressed Indian stand by emphasising cessation of violence and holding dialogue and discussion to resolve differences and end the war. The joint statements issued reflected both the views and heralded a novel diplomatic understanding. There was no need to highlight only the convergence of views in the joint statement. But cooperation in counterterrorism, cyber security, green and sustainable development, alternative sources of energy, decarbonisation and environmental security and several other themes were discussed and announced.
In the emerging global order, the European Union is likely to play a constructive role. India has certainly thrown its hat for the maintenance of peace and stability in the Indo-Pacific by being part of the Quad and effectively implementing its ‘Act East’ policy, but as an emerging global player India seeks enhanced cooperation with Europe as well. Prime Minister Modi’s mission to Europe is significant and admirable in this context.
The writer is a professor at Jawaharlal Nehru University. Views expressed are personal.
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