India must prepare itself for the ‘gray zone’ warfare that is going to be upon it sooner than later, especially in the North East
Irregular warfare is perhaps the newest manner by which belligerent groups are seeking to wage war with India. Although this phenomenon has manifested itself in various theatres around the world in earlier times as well, the institutionalised approach by which it is coming to the fore of late warrants careful study. Indeed, in a plethora of ways “kleinkrieg” or “small wars” is achieving greater significance in the conflict continuum across the globe.
To that end, whether it is the Al-Qaeda-ISIS combine that are decisively coming together in Afghanistan or the ethnic insurgencies in the North East that are beginning to exhibit non-traditional violence, novel methodologies are increasingly being espoused by such formations in order to engineer irregular manoeuvre.
Therefore, even as radical Islam by way of the global Salafi movement is forcefully spreading “Op Confusion” onto a bewildered establishment, there are instances by which other forms of conflict are also adopting out-of-the-box methods to carry out subterfuge.
In the universe of Islamist terror discourse an avant-garde Operation Inherent Resolve which could have impounded all the radically deviant minds of the globe into a single area with proper surveillance instead permitted Abu Ibrahim al-Hashimi al-Qurashi and his group to spirit away. The total territorial ouster of ISIS from Iraq-Syria turned out to be detrimental in the long run. ISIS is no longer restrained to a region where its “aggression threshold” could have been appropriately controlled. After all, even radicals across the globe were undertaking the hijrah to the neo-caliphate’s domain after having taken the Bay’ah or the oath of allegiance!
Indeed, ISIS could presently be anywhere in the world, cloaked in different avatars including as the salar-e-allah of the Afghanistan-based Islamic State of Khorasan Province and Waliyah-i-Hind inside India preparing for the “Third Wave of Radicalisation”. The fact that the Taliban notwithstanding the Doha Agreement would continue to sustain both al-Qaeda and ISIS is also no longer in doubt.
Another important aspect is the manner in which insurgent groups in India’s eastern extremity are planning and executing dastardly attacks on security forces in the region. A manifestation of one such act was the 13 November, 2021, Churachandpur ambush in Manipur. While such attacks have been carried out in the past as well, indeed at times with greater ferocity as was the case when soldiers of the Indian Army’s 6 Dogras were attacked in 2015, the fact of the matter is that insurgent organisations in the North East are progressively becoming bolder, almost attesting to the fact that the state may have lost the plot despite the fact that there had been considerable forward movement to bring round the wayward groups in the past.
In any event, the prognosis that accompanies the appearance of such pattern clearly attests to the fact that Myanmar post 1 February, 2021, has presented itself as a ready launching detachment for groups that have long jettisoned their founding principles and have graduated into distasteful mercenary conduct much of which is driven by narco-terrorism.
Indeed, many insurgent outfits have come into an agreement with the Tatmadaw and are believed to be aiding the Myanmar Army to quell the civil unrest that erupted after the February putsch. In fact, one of the principal introspection exercises that need to occupy Raisina Hill is the about-face that Naypyidaw engineered after the junta took over the reins of governance.
This is unfortunate as it had been quite forthcoming in ousting the insurgent groups from its soil by way of Op Sunrise-I and II. However, the most important aspect that forbiddingly lends itself to irregular warfare behaviour is the fact that China, perturbed by its inability to intimidate India by conventional methods, is utilising the insurgents to mount a proxy war against India by way of the North East. While this, too, is not new, the fact of the matter is China’s “import of revolution” had ceased when Deng Xiaoping was in the seat of power.
The entry of the Chinese into the North East insurgency game in the aftermath of the Chinese humiliation in eastern Ladakh indicates that Beijing is resorting to irregular warfare initiative in order to, alongside its surrogate Pakistan, “bleed India with a thousand cuts”. Such facets that are beginning to endanger India must be carefully factored in and studied by the security managers of India.
On the other hand, the atmospherics that have come to roost in Bangladesh are fraught with a possibility that despite Sheikh Hasina’s best efforts, a rise in radicalisation might be taking place. This is becoming increasingly palpable with the growing intimacy of the country’s population with Pakistan in recent times. The Pakistanisation of a section of Bangladesh has become particularly pronounced after the Taliban takeover in Afghanistan with a “butterfly” effect being felt in the erstwhile East Pakistan.
The post-1971 generation seems to be identifying itself with not only Pakistan, but the global Salafi movement as well. This was in ample evidence when a hostage situation was engineered in Dhaka in 2016. The Islamist groups in Bangladesh like the Jama’atul Mujahideen Bangladesh (JMB) and the Ansarullah Bangla Team had, of course, already identified themselves with groups such as the al-Qaeda and the ISIS. The expanse is, therefore, ripe for a concerted fundamentalist resurgence.
Coupled with the aforesaid resurgence a spill over effect from Bangladesh into India is also being felt. Eastern India and Assam would be the first ports of call for the Islamists. After all, the JMB had set up shop in Assam, Bengal and Bihar in 2014. Indeed, one of the modus operandi of the radicalised elements from Bangladesh as also from South East Asia has been to utilise the demographic jungles of lower Assam and employ it as a “gateway” to the rest of India in order to perpetrate terror alongside Pakistan-based tanzeems such as Lashkar-e-Taiba and Jaish-e-Mohammad. An expedited radicalisation effort of the sort that is being analysed would have far-reaching implication for India.
The state must, therefore, prepare itself for the “gray zone” warfare that is going to be upon it sooner than later. The prudent course of action would be to chart and cull from non-orthodox stratagems from theatres across the world. The consecration of novel approaches for combating “irregular warfare” is an important objective. As aforesaid, this is so not only because of the unconventional behaviour in Islamist terror conduct but in the insurgencies that India is faced with in the North East.
The pincer movements from the two extremities of India that are slowly making their way to “marry-up” in the traditional perches of East and North East India must be outflanked. A correctly anvilled anti-terror doctrine which is overarching and takes into account non-foreseeable eventualities would have gone a long way in the direction of countering the new threat. It is, therefore, important to be clear-eyed and construct an integrated approach whereby deception management is comprehended and acted upon with foresight.
Such an exercise would also calibrate the construction of a mainframe around the concept of irregular warfare that is all set to proliferate. Strategic acumen decrees that a course correction exercise be put in place which would counter the new threat with fortitude.
The writer is a well-known conflict analyst and author of several bestselling books on security and strategy. Views expressed are personal.
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