Head-on | Why Uttar Pradesh Assembly election will decide CM Yogi Adityanath’s future national role

After Modi, who? The question appears premature not only because of the prime minister’s absolute dominance of the BJP but also because of the disarray in the Opposition.

However, it is a question that will increasingly be asked. If the BJP returns to power in 2024, Narendra Modi will be prime minister for a third consecutive term. Only Jawaharlal Nehru had previously won three successive terms as prime minister (1952, 1957 and 1962). Nehru died in May 1964 before he completed his third elected term.

But what about 2029? Will the Lok Sabha election throw up a surprise? Two more questions arise. One, in the unprecedented event of the BJP winning a fourth consecutive Lok Sabha election in 2029, will Modi — who will turn 80 in September 2030 — want to continue as prime minister? Two, who in the BJP is his most likely successor?

Before answering these questions, consider the state of the Opposition. The Congress is in the midst of an existential crisis. The exit of former UPA Union cabinet minister RPN Singh will hurt the Gandhis more than the defections of Jyotiraditya Scindia and Jitin Prasada. Singh was a soft-spoken moderate, close to the Gandhis and non-controversial. His departure will lay out a drawbridge across the moat to the BJP for other disaffected Congress leaders.

If, for example, Sachin Pilot doesn’t get his due in Rajasthan, will he walk across the moat? The Rajasthan Assembly election is due in November 2023. If the Gehlot-Pilot tussle isn’t settled well before that, Pilot could be in play.

Milind Deora has been sidelined in Maharashtra. Manish Tewari cuts an unhappy figure in Punjab. Shashi Tharoor has more enemies than friends in the Kerala Congress. Not all of them will cross over. But they all know that the Congress, under its current leadership, will not be able to mount an effective challenge to the BJP in the 2024 Lok Sabha election.

Nor will West Bengal Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee’s Trinamool Congress with its parochial appeal. The poor Rahul-Mamata chemistry complicates matters. A 2024 version of the 1996 United Front coalition experiment led by HD Deve Gowda could be dead on arrival.

Back to the initial question: After Modi, who? Assuming that he leads the BJP/NDA to victory in 2024 and decides to step aside in 2029 before turning 80 a year later, who in the BJP would be his natural successor?

The obvious answer: Amit Shah. He has long been Modi’s second-in-command. Modi trusts him. But seven years to 2029 is a long time. Many assumptions may fall by the wayside.

The BJP’s victory in the 2029 Lok Sabha election is not pre-ordained. Shah is an able administrator but has been criticised for his handling of the Shaheen Bagh protests against the Citizenship (Amendment) Act (CAA) and for not notifying its rules more than two years after it was legislated.

Both Modi and Shah have also drawn flak for inaction over murderous attacks on BJP workers in West Bengal, Kerala and elsewhere. The core base of the BJP is unhappy with the top leadership.

The dark horse amidst all this is Uttar Pradesh chief minister Yogi Adityanath. A recent opinion poll showed both Shah and Adityanath neck-and-neck as possible long-term successors to Modi.

Shah has taken personal charge of the UP Assembly election following the spate of defections to the Samajwadi Party. That is a clear message to all and sundry: I call the shots. Shah has made it a particular point to play troubleshooter in western UP, soothing Jat concerns.

Adityanath possesses both strengths and weaknesses. He has taken on UP’s notorious mafia raj, improved law and order and focused on infrastructural development. But detractors claim that he has favoured members of his Thakur caste and ignored OBCs and Dalits.

The results of the Uttar Pradesh Assembly election will decide Yogi’s future national trajectory. If the BJP wins over 270 seats in the 403-seat Assembly, Yogi could look at a larger national role in the 2024 Lok Sabha election campaign. If he then delivers 67 out of UP’s 80 parliamentary seats in 2024, as a recent nationwide opinion poll projected, Yogi will move up another rung in the BJP’s top leadership ladder.

What if the BJP ends up with 230-240 seats in Uttar Pradesh on 10 March? That’s a comfortable majority but not a convincing one. Losing over 60 MLAs will be seen as a personal setback for Adityanath.

Yogi’s stock could fall. He would then have to bide his time, turbocharge UP’s development in 2022-24 and secure at least 60-65 parliamentary seats for the state in 2024. That would rehabilitate him as a serious contender in a post-Modi BJP.

Will this eventually lead to a Shah-Yogi double engine in 2029 — if Modi decides to step aside?

At 49, Yogi has age on his side. Does he have Modi on his side? Yes, but in the BJP hierarchy, behind Shah.

Even after 2029, Modi will continue to play the role of mentor. By then India will be a very different country: The world’s third-largest economy and second-largest consumer market.

To lead it into the 2030s, India will need a politician with both a global outlook and a national grounding. Examine the past. As Atal Bihari Vajpayee moved from the ideological right towards the centre, LK Advani took his place on the right. When Modi made his bid for the BJP’s leadership in mid-2013, Advani moved towards the centre. Modi occupied his place on the right.

Now as Shah and Yogi move themselves on the political chessboard, Modi is moving to the centre, vacating the spot on the right.

Who will fill that spot is the question. On 10 March we will get the first part of the answer.

The writer is editor, author and publisher. Views expressed here are personal.