Punjab goes the AAP way as Kejriwal ensures he doesn’t repeat the mistakes he made in the last election when his party won just 20 seats out of 117
File image of Uttar Pradesh chief minister Yogi Adityanath. ANI
The clear winner today: Uttar Pradesh Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath. By winning Uttar Pradesh for a second consecutive term, Yogi has defeated not only the Samajwadi Party but overcome five inimical factors.
First, he has smashed the 37-year trend of UP switching governments every five years. That was a clinical demolition of history.
Second, by in effect dropping out of the race, BSP’s Mayawati had tactically converted the multi-cornered contest into a straight shoot-out between the BJP and SP. Binary contests carry dangers for the incumbent with vote shares coalescing rather than splitting. By winning in UP, though with fewer seats than in 2017, Yogi has shown that his double engine with Prime Minister Narendra Modi is firing on all cylinders.
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Third, the narrative that the farmers’ agitation had angered Jats in western UP to form an iron wall with the SP’s Muslim-Yadav vote-bank to stop the BJP has been laid to rest. The BJP has fared far better in western UP than most expected, giving it the momentum to push through to a clean majority.
Fourth, the belief that “bodies floating in the Ganga river” during the lethal second wave of Covid-19 would erode Yogi’s reputation for tough crisis management proved false. This was partly because the earlier narrative was itself bloated and partly because the UP government quickly got the situation under control.
Fifth, Yogi was fighting friendly fire from within sections of the BJP. Internal dissent against his style of working peaked late last year. It took decisive intervention from Prime Minister Narendra Modi to quell the dissent before it got out of hand.
To overcome these five hurdles and lead the BJP to victory can, with caveats, be extrapolated to determine which issues will matter to the Indian voter in the 2024 Lok Sabha election.
Law and order is key. Yogi has dismantled the Mafia Raj that UP suffered from for decades. Delivering free rations and other welfare benefits to the poor through DBT (direct benefit transfer) without corrupt middlemen siphoning off the cream has given the Adityanath government significant leverage over the electorate in the run-up to 2024.
Infrastructure has clearly improved across the state over the past five years. Several projects — airports, roads, metros — were incomplete legacies of previous governments. The Adityanath government pushed them through to completion, especially the expansion in the number of operational airports.
One of the least understood contributory factors in Yogi’s win is the female factor. The BJP’s vote share lead over the SP across the state is significantly greater among women than men. There are three reasons for this.
One, women feel safer amidst improved law and order. Two, by providing free gas cylinders, enhancing rural electrification, putting water on tap and building toilets have all helped the BJP gain confidence among women voters.
Three, even among Muslim women, the triple talaq law has provided a level of comfort with the BJP: Anecdotal evidence points to Muslim women discreetly, and often secretly, voting in polling booths for the BJP while their menfolk remain loyal to the SP.
Why did joblessness and economic pain caused by the pandemic not hurt the BJP in UP? One reason was that the demographic worst hit by lack of jobs was young people between 18 and 29 years.
Some granular numbers offer further clues. The share of youth voters of total voters in the 2017 UP election was 28.73 per cent. In 2022, that ratio dropped to 22.93 per cent. Fewer younger voters — most affected by joblessness — cushioned the BJP just as women voters, including Muslim women, bolstered it.
The big loser in UP? Clearly the Congress. It was always a bit player in the state. But UP-in-charge Priyanka Gandhi Vadra addressed more campaign rallies in UP (213) than even Chief Minister Adityanath (206). Despite that, the Congress made little impression in the state.
What about Akhilesh Yadav? The SP leader over-promised but under-delivered. Mayawati had given him a golden opportunity by virtually withdrawing from the race. Some of the BSP’s vote share was the SP’s for the taking. In the end, the BJP’s caste rainbow coalition along with development and welfare carried the day.
What do the five state Assembly results presage for 2024? They clearly strengthen Yogi’s position as No. 3 in the BJP’s national hierarchy. Modi’s vote-catching charisma remains intact as the results in Uttarakhand and Goa — two tricky states — have underscored.
The Congress was expected to lose badly in UP and it has. But it was given a fighting chance in both Uttarakhand and Goa. It failed in both. The leadership and commitment of Rahul Gandhi — an invisible presence through most of the campaign — will be seriously questioned, even within a party where feudalism and servility are deeply embedded in its genetic code.
What about AAP’s landslide in Punjab? Arvind Kejriwal was expected to win Punjab in 2017 but didn’t. AAP has ensured it didn’t repeat the mistakes it made in the last election when it won just 20 seats out of 117.
The Sidhu-Channi infighting, along with Captain Amarinder Singh’s sacking, eroded the Congress challenge, making AAP’s task easier.
Does this suggest a broader national role for AAP and Kejriwal? Not necessarily. But the one lesson every party must take home from 10 March is this: Don’t take the voter for granted. He, and especially she, can surprise you in multiple ways.
The writer is editor, author and publisher. Views expressed here are personal.
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