Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has prompted many countries to hike their defence budgets. Will this lead to more aggressive posturing or help in maintaining peace is yet to be decided
The world continues to watch as the Russian invasion of Ukraine enters day 13, with humanitarian consequences like none seen before.
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The one side-effect of this war is a sudden shift in attitudes to defence spending, around the world. European countries and those outside of the continent are increasing, or contemplating an increase, their defence budgets in response to the Russia-Ukraine war.
Will this lead to more aggressive posturing or will this help in maintaining peace and calm? One can’t be sure of the outcome, but one thing is certain: the defence industry will see an unprecented boost in revenue.
Here’s a look at which countries have announced a rise in defence budgets, and which countries are proposing to do so.
Defence budgets of countries
Before we delve into which countries have increased their defence budgets, let’s take a look at how countries have been spending on defence in the last few years.
Data provided by Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) showed that total global military expenditure rose to $1,981 billion in 2020, an increase of 2.6 per cent in real terms from 2019.
The SIPRI report also revealed that the five biggest spenders in 2020 were United States, China, India, Russia and the United Kingdom.
In 2020, US military expenditure reached an estimated $778 billion — 3.7 per cent of its GDP. The report revealed that China’s military expenditure, the second highest in the world, is estimated to have totalled $252 billion in 2020. This represents an increase of 1.9 per cent over 2019.
When it came to India, the report revealed that India’s defence budget of 2020 was 2.9 per cent of its GDP. It also said that India remained the second highest importer, only behind Saudi Arabia.
Defence budgets up!
Germany: Early into the Russia-Ukraine conflict, Germany announced it was committing EUR100 billion ($113bn) in military spending.
Addressing the German parliament in Berlin, Chancellor Olaf Scholz said, “It’s clear we need to invest significantly more in the security of our country, in order to protect our freedom and our democracy.”
“We will from now on, year after year, invest more than two percent of gross domestic product (GDP) in our defence,” he said.
He called it “Germany’s historical responsibility” to ensure that Vladimir Putin “does not turn the clocks back”.
Germany has long been criticised by its allies for its resistance to increasing its defence spending. This position has been reinforced by a strong pacifist sentiment among the electorate linked to Germany’s Nazi past.
Sweden: Within the European continent, Germany isn’t the only country to see a hike in defence spending. Swedish prime minister Magdalena Andersson declared on 1 March that Sweden would enhance its expenditure on defence.
In a televised speech, she said: “Sweden’s defensive capabilities need to be strengthened, the rearmament needs to be brought forward. We are not under a direct threat of an armed attack against Sweden, but the general threat level has increased.”
After the end of the Cold War, Sweden slashed military spending. It was only after Russia’s annexation of the Crimean peninsula in 2014 that the parliament agreed on a turnaround.
Sweden reintroduced mandatory military service in 2017. In October 2018, it bumped up defence spending by 40 per cent with an extra 27 billion Swedish kronor ($2.8 billion) to be added to the defence budget from 2021 to 2025.
Romania: President Klaus Iohannis said that his country would push defence spending to 2.5 per cent of GDP, from the current 2 per cent mark.
Poland: News agency Reuters reported on 3 March that Poland would raise spending on its armed forces more than planned. “There will be an amendment (to the defence plan): 3 per cent of GDP on defence next year, then we will increase it,” Jaroslaw Kaczynski, the leader of ruling nationalist Law and Justice party (PiS), was quoted as saying.
Poland has kept its annual defence spending to 2 per cent of GDP in recent years, in line with its commitment to NATO.
Chinese military personnel march past the Forbidden City, in Beijing. China announced that it is raising its defense spending in 2022 by 7.1 per cent to $229 billion. AP
China: Beijing too has increased its defence spending in 2022 by 7.1 per cent to $229 billion, up from a 6.8 per cent increase the year before. Interestingly, the hike makes China’s defence budget over three times that of India’s defence budget of 5.25 lakh crore (about $70 billion) for 2022.
Denmark: Danish prime minister Mette Frederiksen said it would significantly increase its defence budget. The country will increase its defence spending gradually to reach 2 per cent of GDP by 2033, equivalent to an increase in annual defence spending of around 18 billion Danish crowns ($2.65 billion).
Mulling a hike
While the above mentioned countries have already announced an increase in defence budgets, there are others like the United Kingdom, France, Canada who are contemplating a rise in their defence spending.
Sky News has reported that Boris Johnson could increase the defence budget as the Russia-Ukraine conflict continues.
The Sky News report citing two sources said that defence spending was the most likely of any budget to rise in the face of the increased threat to NATO from Russia.
Emmanuel Macron in France has also pledged to increase defence spending.
Similarly, Canada’s Justin Trudeau said he would look at increasing the country’s defence spending. Given world events, he said there are “certainly reflections to have.”
With inputs from agencies
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