Explained: What happens once the European Union bans Russian oil?

The European Union has unveiled a plan to put more pressure on Russia, including a ban on its oil imports by the end of the year. This is likely to lead to shortages and high prices of oil and fuel at a time when inflation is high

Picture taken on 3 May shows a general view of Slovakia’s largest mineral oil refinery Slovnaft in Bratislava, Slovakia. Slovakia and Hungary, EU’s most reliant countries depending on Russian fossil fuels, have repeatedly said they would not sign up to sanctions involving energy. AFP

European Union chief Ursula von der Leyen on Wednesday said the EU would impose a gradual Russian oil ban, as Brussels unveiled new sanctions to punish Russia for invading Ukraine.

“We will make sure that we phase out Russian oil in an orderly fashion,” the EU chief told a session of the European Parliament in Strasbourg. “This is why we will phase out the Russian supply of crude oil within six months and refined products by the end of the year,” she added.

In a document seen by news agency AFP, von der Leyen’s proposal asked that Hungary and Slovakia, both hugely dependent on Russian oil, be given more time to meet the ban.

Ambassadors from the 27 European Union countries will meet on Wednesday to assess her plan, and it will need unanimous approval before going into effect.

What does the ban mean for the EU?

Von der Leyen acknowledged that the ban on Russian oil “will not be easy”. “But we simply have to work on it,” she wrote on Twitter.

Talking about phasing out Russian oil she said it will be done to “maximise pressure on Russia while minimising the impact on our economies”.

Why have Hungary and Slovakia been given more time?

European Union countries Hungary and Slovakia will be able to continue buying Russian crude oil until the end of 2023 under existing contracts, Reuters has reported an EU source as saying.

A longer period to implement the embargo has been given to the two nations in a bid to ensure that reluctant countries do not veto the proposal. The proposed delayed embargo for Hungary and Slovakia until the end of 2023 could be the compromise that is needed to reach an agreement, a source told Reuters.

Hungary, heavily dependent on Russian oil, has repeatedly said it would not sign up for sanctions involving energy. Slovakia is also among the EU countries most reliant on Russian fossil fuels, according to the report.

What will be the impact of the oil ban?

Around 25 per cent of Europe’s crude oil comes from Russia but some countries are more dependent on the aggressor nation than others.

Analysts say it will be possible to sever Europe’s oil ties to Russia, but the effort will take time and may lead to shortages and higher prices for gasoline, diesel, jet fuel and other products — a situation that could penalise consumers already struggling with inflation and, ultimately, derail the economic recovery from the pandemic, reports The New York Times.

It’s “going to be complicated,” Richard Bronze, head of geopolitics at Energy Aspects, a research firm told the newspaper. “You have got a de-linking of two very intertwined parts of the global energy system… There are going to be disruptions and costs associated with that.”

The EU hopes the ban on Russian oil will further pressure Vladimir Putin to reduce the offensive in Ukraine. The country $310 million a day from oil sales to Europe and it’s a key component of the Russian economy. It’s a way of punishing the nation as it continues to wage war in Ukraine.

EU chief Ursula von der Leyen has called on the member nations to phase out imports of crude oil within six months and refined products by the end of the year. AFP

What about a ban on gas?

While a decision has been taken to phase out Russian oil, there has been no consensus on gas. The fuel has not been targeted by EU sanctions.

Germany is heavily reliant on Moscow; it is the world’s top buyer of Russian gas. Since the war, it has been consistenly reducing its dependence.

Russia has been using its oil and gas exports to bully other nations. Last week, the nation announced it would cut off natural gas deliveries to Poland and Bulgaria after both countries refused to comply with its request to make payment for the export in roubles, Russia’s national currency.

The Kremlin defended the move as a necessary measure to protect Russia’s financial reserves following heavy sanctions. “They blocked our accounts, or — to put in Russian — they ‘stole’ a significant portion of our reserves,” Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov told the media during a press call last week.

A day after the gas supply was stopped, the energy providers Uniper, in Germany, and Eni SpA, in Italy, reportedly opened accounts with Russian bank Gazprombank to buy Russian gas, handing Moscow a big win in its efforts to receive payments in roubles, reports Al Jazeera.

Russia has threatened that it will soon cut off gas to other countries if they continue to support Ukraine.

How has Russian reacted to the possible oil ban?

Russia seems undeterred by the news of a possible ban. Europe will continue buying Russian oil via third countries once the embargo is introduced, a Russian official predicts, according to the BBC.

Senior MP Vladimir Dzhabarov told the state-run RIA Novosti news agency Europe’s leaders “have gone a little crazy”.

“They say we won’t buy oil from us. Well, don’t buy it, we don’t push it to you,” he added. “You will still buy it, only through third countries. Our oil is the same, only more expensive.”

What else has the EU sanctioned?

Von der Leyen said the EU would ask that the member states agree to deny Sberbank, Russia’s biggest bank, access to SWIFT, the global banking communications system, reports AFP.

By hitting Sberbank and two other banks, “we hit banks that are systemically critical to the Russian financial system and Putin’s ability to wage destruction,” she said.

The draft of her proposal also said the EU was seeking to add the head of the Russian Orthodox Church, Patriarch Kirill, to the latest list of sanctioned individuals in the package. The new list includes 58 people, including many Russian military personnel, but also the wife, daughter, and son of Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov.

Von der Leyen said the list would add high-ranking military officers and other individuals “who committed war crimes in Bucha and who are responsible for the inhuman siege of the city of Mariupol”.

With inputs from agencies

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