Explained: The no-confidence vote against UK’s Boris Johnson and his possible replacements

The partygate scandal might cost Boris Johnson the prime ministership. Conservative lawmakers in Britain will decide his future in a vote today. Here’s how the process works

An anti-Conservative Party protester holds a demonstration outside Houses of Parliament, in London in December 2021. Britain’s governing Conservatives will hold a no-confidence vote on Monday. AP

Conservative lawmakers in Britain will vote Monday evening on whether to oust their leader, Prime Minister Boris Johnson, who has been tarnished by revelations that he and his staff held parties that broke the COVID-19 lockdown rules they imposed on the country.

We take a look at the controversy and how the Conservative Party goes about challenging and changing leaders.

The partygate scandal

Johnson, who was appointed prime minister in 2019, has been under growing pressure, unable to move on from a report that documented alcohol-fuelled parties at Downing Street — where the prime minister lives and works — when Britain was under strict lockdowns to tackle COVID-19.

An internal investigation was launched by senior civil servant Sue Gray, who was asked to look at the nature and purpose of the gatherings, including who went to them, and whether they broke COVID-19 protocols.

The report published on 25 May gave details of 16 events held between May 2020 and April 2021.

She said that “what took place at many of these gatherings and the way in which they developed was not in line with Covid guidance at the time”.

Johnson was fined only ?50 for the parties following another police investigation into the matter and apologised for the parties in light of Gray’s report. However, the PM refused to resign despite calls for him to do so.

The no-confidence vote

Now a no-confidence vote has been triggered against the prime minister, which will decide his fate.

According to the rules, 15 per cent of Conservative lawmakers — currently 54 — need to write a letter to Graham Brady, head of a powerful group of Conservative legislators known as the 1922 Committee. It is called that because it was founded by lawmakers first elected that year. These days it consists of Conservative lawmakers who do not hold official positions in the government.

Brady announced Monday that the threshold had been met and said the vote will be held in Parliament in the evening, with the result announced soon after. With the Tories having 359 MPs currently, it meant at least 54 have submitted letters of no confidence against Johnson.

Britain’s Prime Minister Boris Johnson needs 180 votes to win. AP

Johnson’s fate

All 359 Tory legislators can cast secret ballots. Johnson needs 50 per cent votes to stay in office, plus one support from the parliamentary party. This means he needs 180 votes to win.

The vote will take place in person and is likely to be held in a large committee room in the Palace of Westminster usually used for meetings of the 1922 Committee. Arrangements will be in place for MPs needing proxy votes.

The leadership contest

Conservative leadership contests have two stages. In the first stage, Conservative lawmakers hold an initial vote on all the candidates. The candidate with the lowest number of votes drops out and voting continues until there are two contenders left.

When there are only two candidates left, they are put to a vote of the full party membership across the country.

In the last leadership contest in 2019, a field of 10 candidates was whittled down to Johnson and former Health Secretary Jeremy Hunt. Johnson won handily with about two-thirds of the votes cast by party members.

The winner of the vote becomes the Conservative Party leader and prime minister, without the need for a national election.

If Johnson wins…

If Johnson survives, there cannot be another challenge for a year unless the rules are changed, which is a possibility. Theresa May won the vote but was forced to step down soon because of the threat of rule change and a new vote. She had gained support of two-thirds of her MPs.

Losing the vote

If Johnson loses, he would resign and a party leadership contest would be held in which he would be barred from running. He would remain party leader and prime minister until a replacement is chosen.

Johnson was the one to replace May but the process took two months.

However, if Johnson decided he wanted to leave immediately, an interim PM would be needed. Deputy prime minister Dominic Raab would be the most likely replacement.

The contenders for PM

Any Conservative legislator is eligible to run to replace Johnson as party leader. The two names most often mentioned are Foreign Secretary Liz Truss and Treasury chief Rishi Sunak, both senior ministers with strong followings in the party, reports The Associated Press.

Other possible contenders include Deputy Prime Minister Dominic Raab, who ran against Johnson last time; Education Secretary Nadhim Zahawi; a key figure in the UK’s successful COVID-19 vaccine program; Penny Mordaunt, the international trade minister seen as a rising star; Leveling Up Secretary Michael Gove, one of the most powerful members of Johnson’s government; Health Secretary Sajid Javid, who has led the country’s coronavirus response; and Hunt, who has said he hasn’t abandoned hope of becoming prime minister one day.

With inputs from agencies

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