As China prepares to begin the 20th National Congress of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) on 16 October 2022, the world awaits deliberations and outcomes with a mix of concerns and future challenges. It is reasonably clear that Xi Jinping would further consolidate his power, with the CCP Congress clearing the way for him to stay on at the helm for an unprecedented third five-year term. The 90-million-member party has 2,296 delegates. The party delegates will also select a new central committee consisting of about 200 full members. These will then determine the core leadership the Politburo and its standing committee.
The preparations for five yearly massive political event began in November 2021 with local and provincial party organisations electing delegates to the Congress. All delegates were elected by 25 September 2022. The Congress will first endorse the members of the Central Commission for Discipline Inspection and also elect the Central Committee. After the closing of the Congress, the 1st Plenary Session of the Central Committee will approve the membership of the Politburo and its Standing Committee, the party’s most powerful decision-making body.
Xi Jinping will either be re-elected as the general secretary of the CCP or may even be conferred the title of Chairman of the CCP, a title that was discontinued in 1982 and was once held by Mao Zedong. Some are saying, he may be declared the “People’s Leader” in addition. While all the party-related posts will be decided at the Congress, the position of the President will be due for change only in March 2023.
The paramount leader: Xi Jinping
Xi Jinping is seen as a strong leader. Very quickly after coming to power in 2012, he consolidated his power by taking control of all verticals of Chinese power structure, being the general secretary of the CCP, chairman of the Central Military Commission (CMC), and President of the People’s Republic of China (PRC). Thus he become the uncontested paramount political leader. Interestingly, he is the first general secretary born post establishment of PRC in 1949.
Xi’s aggressive foreign policy push
Some of the hallmarks of his ten-year tenure till now were massive defence reforms and modernisation. Aerospace and maritime were his thrust areas in line with global ambitions. The time for becoming a big global power had come, he felt. He also pushed a very aggressive foreign policy, especially when it came to challenging the US global standing and what he called unipolar hegemony. Among his major external actions was the control within the nine-dash line or the first island chain in the South China Sea.
His second aggressive foray was the trade mark Belt and Road Initiative to make routes to new markets for Chinese surplus goods production and also to find pathways to exploit resources. He had particular interest in Eurasia and Africa. China offered debt to the relatively impoverished nations to help build infrastructure, and then when they could not pay back, trapped them for strategic gains.
Under Xi, China has become much more aggressive on Taiwan reunification and increasingly began using coercive military means. Concerned about India becoming a significant Asian power and a competitor to China, he began building influence in nations encircling India using greater economic muscle power, through what some refer to as ‘String of Pearls’. Being unhappy about India’s more active participation in Quad, Xi reopened Sino-Indian border dispute through limited military action in eastern Ladakh, in a way to show India its place.
Xi’s consolidated internal hold
Xi used many ways to consolidate his hold over the party and people. Among them, in the pretext to bring discipline, he launched a massive anti-corruption campaign to take-on senior entrenched functionaries. He also began partially curbing Deng Xiaoping’s economic liberalisation by increasing support for state-owned enterprises, and simultaneously putting CCP representatives on private company boards to retain party influence in all decision-making.
Xi pushed for military-civil fusion in most sectors, especially in space, electronics and cyber domains. He came heavily on the debt-ridden private property and infrastructure sector that had shown unbridled expansion, some of which was speculative. To win over the masses he targeted poverty alleviation programs through his “common prosperity” schemes to reduce growing economic inequalities. He also reigned in the fast Westernising and becoming independent technology sector.
But his somewhat harsh response to the pandemic by inflicting a zero-Covid approach actually slowed the economy. He used the pandemic period to impose the national security law in Hong Kong, and in one-stroke killing the one-country-two-systems arrangement and finishing the last semblance of democracy and free-speech.
The authoritarian Xi increased censorship and mass surveillance. His human rights record in the two largest provinces and Autonomous Regions Xinjiang and Tibet is being questioned by the free world. He has been trying to destroy the local culture in these two regions. Xi has been pushing and projecting himself as a cult personality. To top it all, like the Mao’s Little Red book, Xi has enunciated his own vision and diktat for the nation through a 14-point document called the “Xi Thought”. The document has been incorporated into the party and national constitutions. He has reengineered ideology of his predecessors.
The recently released Xi’s speeches and written works covering 2012- 2022 is part of the ongoing cult personality building campaign. Xi’s plan is to strengthen internal growth and external power and influence but all within the hold of CCP from which he himself draws strength. Through all this, Xi has significantly centralized institutional power with himself and now chairs the National Security Commission, as well as new steering committees on economic and social reforms, military restructuring and modernisation, and the Internet.
Regional dynamics
The world’s response to China’s rise was multifaceted, inadequate and at times confused. In 2007 Japan’s Shinzo Abe started Quad. Initially it got a lukewarm response from some like Australia and India. Even Barack Obama’s 2012 Pivot to Asia was a non-starter. The Quad got a boost only in 2017 with president Donald Trump and Prime Minister Narendra Modi and others realising the magnitude of China’s rise and global hegemonistic intentions.
The Quad remains a non-military alliance, but the size of economies and composition and strength of the militaries of the members is huge. In the region, China has two countries, Pakistan and North Korea that can be called as allies (Figure Below). There are other countries like Mongolia, Myanmar, Cambodia, Sri Lanka, and Laos, that can be called China leaning. China is also trying to befriend Pacific Island nations. The countries aligned with the US, include Japan, South Korea, Philippines, Australia, and New Zealand. AUKUS has brought UK in the area. France has old colonial connections. Many countries like India, Thailand, and Vietnam are America leaning when it comes to China. After recent Taiwan incidents, the world has got more galvanised. By doing Galwan, China antagonised 1.3 billion Indians.
Unlike the US, which has been fighting out of area wars of others, China has been saving and building assets and influence. Xi’s priority will continue to be to push influence into Central Asia and Africa and also Latin America. Pacific Island nations are his other area of priority. The US and the West has woken up to these plans and from there came up the larger number of groupings like Quad, AUKUS, and I2U2, among many others.
What ahead for Xi Jinping
Continued staying in power has now been ensured by taking direct control of all elements of state authority apparatus. The CCP will continue to consolidate its hold through further control over academic institutions, religion, arts and culture etc. He will keep trying to grow the economy. For decades the general understanding between Chinese people and CCP has been that party looks after the masses and masses keep the party in power.
Chinese economy had risen rather sharply but is now slowing down. Surplus infrastructure got built on debt. The one-child policy has messed up the demographic profile of China, and pandemic had serious negative economic impact. Xi’s heavy hand on liberal private sector that controls nearly 60 per cent of economy has also contributed to the down turn. With CCP insisting on government shareholding in private enterprises, many Western investors started leaving, thus affecting business confidence. The main consumer markets of the US and West have also started putting restrictions on Chinese imports.
Keeping China together is Xi’s first priority. The entire country, including the Hun Chinese are fully under surveillance. CCTV, internet, social media and all public utterances are monitored. Tibet and Xinjiang continue to simmer under the surface. Reunification of Taiwan remains priority number one. He has been sending aggressive signals through military’s air and sea incursions.
Xi wants a bipolar world power structure with China as an equal to the US. He wants a unipolar Asia with China as the sole power, and everyone else to be economically dependent and subservient. For this he wants to match up, and reduce the US influence in Western Pacific and Indian Ocean. He also wants to break US alliances in these regions. He is conscious that Japan and India are his main competitors in Asia. Xi is a man of “History”. He pulls out ancient maps that suit China, to lay claims and change borders. China has 14 countries with land borders, and with all has tried settling disputes on own terms.
Xi will continue to modernise People’s Liberation Army (PLA) to be able to fight and win wars. While the money can buy equipment, but the second aspect of having a trained motivated human will remain an issue. Humans require training, morale and desire to fight. The last major war PLA fought was in Korea in 1950s. They do military exercises with very few foreign countries with Pakistan being the main. PLA is highly politicised. Priority is allegiance to the party more than the country, and Xi has been directly contributed to this.
Xi’s other target ahead is to increase influence and replace the US as the main driver of International Institutions. China is already second largest contributor to UN and third largest to World Bank. It controls SCO and AIIB. It now uses veto-power with renewed self-confidence. Ultimately China will try change rules of the so called rule-based order. China will start redefining human-rights, peace-keeping and other values. The English edition of Understanding Xi Jinping’s Educational Philosophy has been published in foreign languages for him to be seen as a global statesman. This is backed by praise of Xi’s achievements by official media outlets.
Xi will continue assertively adopting foreign policies that advance Chinese interests. Under Xi, China’s bureaucracy has become less autonomous and more tied to him personally. It is being speculated that Politburo members Wang Yang or Hu Chunhua may replace Li Keqiang (67) as the Chinese premier around 2023. China has a flexible but designated retirement age of 68 for its officials. However, Li could continue to remain a standing committee member. Some analysts believe that Xi’s prot?g? Li Qiang, Shanghai Party Secretary and Politburo member, could become premier.
If Wang Yi, who is foreign minister since 2012 and State Councillor since 2018, replaces Yang Jiechi in the Politburo as the senior-most official overseeing foreign policy, one would expect the tougher foreign policy to continue. How Xi composes his new team will indicate his future thrust lines. Xi is just 69. With him being in total control of the power structure, it is speculated that he could carry on for around ten more years till 2037, steering China and take it closer to his dream of making it the forefront of global power by 2049.
The writer is Director General, Centre for Air Power Studies. Views expressed are personal.