British Prime Minister Boris Johnson visited India last week after his two previous trips were postponed
PM Modi Boris Johnson meet at Rashtrapati Bhavan in New Delhi – Twitter/@narendramodi
The visit of the UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson to India, which finally took place after two postponements, is significant in several ways. In the 75th year of India’s Independence, the visit of a British prime minister in a steeply altered partnership has its own significance. In 75 years, India, from being the jewel in the British crown, has now become a jewel that Britain and others are competing to engage with. It is notable that Johnson, as a leading critic of Russia and loud supporter of the US and NATO action on the Ukraine crisis, found time to make a two-day visit to India.
Given the several crises in the world on Covid, energy, Ukraine and climate, the UK prime minister has a lot of time for India. This is mainly because post-Brexit the UK has India as its strategic linchpin. Along with Japan, Australia and ASEAN its Indo-Pacific policy is revitalised. Johnson was clear that despite Ukraine, functionally the UK was pivoting to Asia.
The virtual Modi-Johnson summit took place in May 2021. After which they met at COP26 in Glasgow and at the G7 and the G20. The last year saw one major interaction in which the British engaged with India on many levels. A diplomatic disadvantage of such frequent meetings and summits is that you can’t keep writing the same joint statement again and need to show implementation. The joint statement, ‘Towards shared security and prosperity through national resilience’, issued after the summit of 22 April 2022, significantly enhances the earlier one and shows that it is taken seriously.
Three major areas where enhanced interaction is taking place are in defence, trade and investment and people-to-people engagement. The defence part is perhaps significant. After crying itself hoarse that India must diversify its sources of defence supplies, Europe seems to be now awakening to the fact that India needs transfers of technology and co-production in India like the Russians do. The British now seem ready to do this for aircraft, for naval ships and engines and in related areas. Besides, a defence ministers’ dialogue has been established. The India-UK Electric Propulsion Capability Partnership with the objective of military and industrial collaboration in maritime Electric Propulsion systems and strategic collaboration including Modern Fighter Aircraft and Jet Engine Advanced Core Technology are major developments. The ‘open general export licence’ for technology collaboration with India, and the opportunity for India to participate in the UK’s aviation and naval shipbuilding programmes are emerging ideas.
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The Indo-Pacific is an area where India and the UK agree but Britain’s commitment needs to be demonstrated. Over the last year the visit of their flotilla led by the aircraft carrier Queen Elizabeth was significant. It had several engagements in and around India, up to Australia. Now Britain has agreed to be a co-leader of the maritime security pillar of the Indian Indo-Pacific Oceans Initiative (IPOI). This is a breakthrough. The UK’s willingness to criticise China is seasonal and requires consistency. The joint statement mentions principles but not the South China Sea in particular.
On new investments and trade, there seems to be a determination to push the FTA since the British are rocked by the speed with which the India Australia ECTA was achieved. The British certainly want to have this before the EU gets through. Some special measures have been undertaken, but these need to be substantive. The issues of the India-EU BTIA cannot be allowed to mark the India-UK FTA and therefore the UK needs to play on a new pitch with India as an equal partner. A target to conclude the majority of talks on a comprehensive and balanced Free Trade Agreement by Diwali 2022 is envisaged.
The mobility agreement for more students and work visas for Indians has a minefield of returning illegal Indians from the UK whose determination of nationality has always remained a challenge. This does not seem to have been significantly dealt with.
Where investment is concerned, Britain is providing important financing arrangements. The British International Investment (BII), previously CDC Group, will bring in up to a billion dollars’ worth of green support. The India-UK Green Growth Equity Fund anchored by India’s National Investment & Infrastructure Fund (NIIF) will mobilise $425 million for green infrastructure projects. The UK will provide guarantees of $1 billion to the World Bank for promoting green infrastructure in India. These have significant fallouts for the development of infrastructure and related manufacturing and services in India.
Besides this, there is no mention of any new British investment, even though Johnson was telling his constituency that India would be investing up to a billion pounds and creating 11,000 jobs in the UK. A similar enunciation on the Indian side is required. The private FDI flow cannot be only towards the UK from India. It needs to be bilateral, and UK companies should be encouraged to set up production bases in India, which should then use nearby markets in ASEAN and Africa for further exports. Since the UK has applied to join the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP), it makes sense for the India-ASEAN FTA and the facilities of the CPTPP to be utilised together for regional value chains.
How Britain will deal with Indian economic fugitives remains a question which is unanswered. They have said that it is the British judicial system which prevents them from extraditing them. However, while dealing with Russian oligarchs when it came to the Ukraine crisis, Britain did not hesitate to confiscate their assets and sanction them without bothering too much about niceties.
Here is where Britain’s determination to deal with a democracy like India differs from how they deal with other countries in particular China, Pakistan and Afghanistan. British strategic interests must be congruent with their pursuit of values and they cannot pursue values in Russia but ignore them in Afghanistan and Pakistan.
The Modi-Johnson summit created the right atmosphere and shows positive signs of further movement and progress over the last one year. This momentum needs to be sustained. Then the India UK partnership will become an important node of India’s European initiative, which as part of multilateral world order will continue to have great salience for India.
The writer is a former Ambassador to Germany. Views expressed are personal.
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