BJP’s strong showing in Uttar Pradesh makes southern regional parties a trifle nervous

The Uttar Pradesh Assembly election results have set the alarm bells ringing in South India, where regional chieftains have so far held the powerful BJP at bay.

Barring in Karnataka, the regional chieftains of different political formations have blocked the entry of the BJP, though the ruling party at the Centre has been making concerted efforts to conquer South India. Limited success, though, for the BJP came when it dethroned the Congress from its bastion of Puducherry in the 2021 elections.

But last week’s historic, morale-boosting BJP victories in Uttar Pradesh, and three other states of Uttarakhand, Goa, and Manipur, have made the regional chieftains of Telangana, Andhra Pradesh, Tamil Nadu, and Kerala a trifle worried over possible renewed BJP forays into their respective fiefdoms.

One of the most vulnerable among the southern chieftains appears to be Telangana Chief Minister and Telangana Rashtra Samithi (TRS) president K Chandrashekhara Rao, who has gone into self-imposed isolation since election results came last Thursday.

It may be recalled that before the Assembly elections, Rao was also scurrying here and there, meeting Opposition leaders to form the non-BJP political front to take on Prime Minister Narendra Modi in the 2024 general elections to the Lok Sabha.

Already in Telangana, the BJP is snapping at his heels, so to speak, with an aggressive campaign in the local body elections and is stepping up its efforts to expand in the state.

“For sure, the BJP will up its ante in Telangana and make a very serious attempt to capture more constituencies. The BJP leaders and cadre are in an upbeat mood and sense a chance now with a weakened Congress and disappearance of the Telugu Desam Party in Telangana,” opined professor Harathi Vageesan of NALSAR University of Law, as KCR prepares to go to the people for a third consecutive term in next year’s Assembly elections.

Given the ability of the BJP to exploit the dissatisfaction of sections of society that did not benefit from the 10 years of TRS rule, fresh from a victory in UP and three other states, the BJP will make deeper forays into the state. But, can it make gains in terms of seats, is still a big question.

There are chances that KCR may eventually enter into a “state for me and Centre for you” kind of an arrangement with the Central government, especially in the wake of UP results. But then there are other analysts who do not see any impact of the UP results on Telangana, like Punjab ignored the BJP. Similarly, the BJP may not entirely be able to convert its enthusiasm into concrete political gains in terms of seats but surely it can hope to improve its penetration in society.

“Even though perceived as an upper caste, pro-market party, the BJP has been able to successfully build a social coalition down the line that benefitted it in Uttar Pradesh, and will elsewhere as well,” Vageesan said. A weakened Congress means a substantial chunk of the Dalit vote could shift to the BJP, eventually, he said and added, “TDP has totally vanished here.” For sure, KCR and the rest of the regional chieftains will be studying closely how the BJP won Uttar Pradesh and if they could learn a thing or two from there.

In neighbouring Andhra Pradesh, Chief Minister YS Jaganmohan Reddy is sitting pretty with the total absence of Congress and weakening of the TDP, whose chief N Chandrababu Naidu is unable to work the same magic and is looking haggard and tired. “The TDP cannot be still written off completely and Jagan will no longer have a cakewalk,” Vageesan said, adding: “But in Andhra, BJP is not so potent as to make any challenge politically, yet.”

Tamil Nadu still happens to be the rock-solid fort that the BJP finds difficult to penetrate, though it gained a foothold in the Assembly elections last year by winning four MLA seats and the state of Puducherry, often considered a colony of Tamil Nadu.

When it comes to the southern states, they won’t forfeit their ground, either to the Congress or the BJP who may rule the Centre, said professor Ramu Manivannan of the Madras University. “How does it matter if the Congress or the BJP rules the Centre, the regional parties in these states would not form an alliance just because the BJP is going to return to power at the Centre, and will try to hold on to their vote-banks,” he said.

In Tamil Nadu, the DMK is now strongly entrenched, but there will be the role of the Opposition and the AIADMK not to allow the DMK to go scot-free. “But the AIADMK does not have a voice to speak for itself, how can it speak for the BJP now,” questioned Manivannan on whether the combo can gain enough political weight to make a significant dent in DMK fortunes, either in Lok Sabha elections or Assembly elections five years away.

True that the BJP has kept a stranglehold over the different factions in the AIADMK and its local leadership is going hammer and tongs at the DMK trying to occupy the Opposition space. “The BJP’s control over the AIADMK is very artificial, as they cannot penetrate the cadre and tell them to listen. And that’s what ultimately matters. AIADMK loyalists and cadre do not see the BJP in that fashion. I won’t be surprised if they go and vote for the Congress or some other party. I feel like BJP’s breaking the back of AIADMK is to give a certain kind of standing as an emerging voice in Tamil Nadu politics,” professor Manivannan felt.

“No doubt, BJP is doing solid hard work, but overcoming Dravidian identity politics is another thing. To regroup Tamil Nadu politics, it does not take anything beyond the language and the cultural identity. This is always antithetical to what the BJP stands for. Thez BJP emerging as Opposition even in 2026, I will be surprised,” Manivannan said.

Kerala is another state that will be a two-horse race between the CPM and the Congress, but BJP will continue to chip away. Its stake will certainly grow, but for it to actually challenge the Left it will take a few more years, he predicted.

In the entire south, which sends 130 MPs to the Lok Sabha, the BJP is well-placed in Karnataka and its victory in UP, Uttarakhand, Goa, and Manipur will surely boost its chances in the Assembly elections due next year.

Political analyst BS Jayaramu in Bangalore said, “Whatever happens in the North, it will not bring about any substantial change in favour of the BJP in the South.” DMK is very strong in Tamil Nadu and will continue to be so even for the 2024 elections and Assembly elections are four years away. In Andhra, Jagan is a tricky customer and even people there may not vote for BJP. Kerala continues to be a no-go area for the BJP. And in any case, this euphoria will also die down in a few months. But yes, in Karnataka, the UP victory will help the BJP.

The writer is a political analyst based in Chennai. Views expressed are personal.

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