The big win in Uttar Pradesh and the three other states – Uttarakhand, Goa, and Manipur – is a confidence boost for the BJP. It has broken the trend of the party’s state losses and more importantly set the tone for 2024
BJP workers celebrate the party’s win in Lucknow, Uttar Pradesh. AP
The 2022 assembly elections win was important for the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) in more ways than one. After Thursday’s results, the BJP is set to form governments in four out of the five states that went to polls. It has retained power in Uttar Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Goa, and Manipur. Punjab went to the Aam Aadmi Party.
Its win in UP, India’s most politically important state, will only boost the party’s confidence. The BJP bagged 255 of the 403 seats in the state, creating history. No other political party has won two consecutive elections in UP in nearly 40 years.
UP’s election results are often seen as a precursor of the general elections, something that Prime Minister Narendra Modi mentioned while addressing party workers on Thursday evening. “… political pundits, who did not think much of the party’s 2019 (Lok Sabha) win saying it had already been decided by the 2017 UP results, will now have the courage to say that the 2022 (UP) results have decided the 2024 (Lok Sabha) results,” he said.
“A hill state adjacent to the border, a coastal state, a state with special blessings of Mother Ganga, and a state on the northeastern border, the BJP has received blessings from all four directions,” he added.
The victories bring joy and a much-needed break from the trend of losing state elections after 2014. Since Narendra Modi first came to power, the BJP has lost its incumbent governments in Rajasthan, Chattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh, Jharkhand, and Maharashtra. Its performance in Haryana was not worth boasting about. We take a look at some of the disappointing defeats and why the 2022 victories put niggling doubts, if any, to rest.
Back-to-back losses
In the 2018 Assembly elections, the BJP lost power in Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, and Chhattisgarh.
In Madhya Pradesh, the Congress emerged as the single-largest party with 114 seats, BJP won 109. However, in 2020, the Congress government led by Kamal Nath fell through after Jyotiraditya Scindia quit along with 22 MLAs. The BJP cobbled up numbers and a new government was formed by Shivraj Singh Chouhan.
In the 2019 state elections, the BJP, battling anti-incumbency, lost in Jharkhand. The party’s choice of the chief minister, Raghubar Das, was not a popular one, even though he had support from Modi and senior party leader and Home Minister Amit Shah. The party lost Jharkhand six months after winning 12 of the 14 Lok Sabha seats in the state, prompting political analysts to say that voters were distinguishing between local and national issues.
In Maharashtra, although the BJP emerged as the single-largest party, it failed to form a government. After much political drama, the Shiv Sena-NCP-Congress formed an alliance named the Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA) and staked claim to form a government in the state with Uddhav Thackeray at the helm. In the 288-member state Assembly, BJP emerged as the single largest party with 105 MLAs, but the combine had the support of 166 legislators.
BJP vs state leaders
In Andhra Pradesh, the BJP-Telegu Desam Pary alliance was in government. But TDP broke the alliance in 2018, accusing its partner of falling back on its promises. The BJP called it a case of political opportunism and pulled out its ministers ahead of the 2019 Assembly polls. The split didn’t bode for either of the parties and YSR Congress led by Jagan Mohan Reddy registered a thumping victory in the state.
In Delhi, Arvind Kejriwal won for the third time in a row in the 2020 Assembly polls. Modi-Shah’s success strategy – banking on Hindutva, Modi’s oratory skills, grand roadshows – fell pale in front of AAP’s model of governance.
The BJP campaigned hard in West Bengal in the 2021 state elections. After having won 18 of the 42 seats in the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, the party was motivated. It promised to bring “asal poriborton” to Bengal, but it was not enough to convince the state that has all its faith in Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee
It was disappointment after big disappointment for the BJP, but Thursday’s astounding results have put the party back on top. The anger over COVID-19 mismanagement, joblessness, or farmers’ protest did not affect voters in Uttar Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Goa, and Manipur.
With a 4/5 score, the BJP can pat itself on the back and look forward. 2024 beckons.
With inputs from agencies
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