Andhra Pradesh Poll Predictions: Chandrababu Naidu may get one more term,whereas Pawan Kalyan will be ‘Balance of power’

Andhra Pradesh Chief Minister Chandrababu Naidu could get one more term in the state, but his vision to be the kingmaker at the Centre is not likely to take off with arch opponent Jagan Mohan Reddy creating significant difference in the Lok Sabha elections, in accordance with most exit polls.

The News18-IPSOS exit poll evaluation has predicted that the YSRCP is able to win 13 Lok Sabha seats in the state, eclipsing the TDP tally of 11 seats.

The Republic-C Voter review have forecasted a win for TDP with 14 Lok Sabha seats accompanied by YSRCP with 11 Lok Sabha seats and zero seats for NDA and UPA, though the India Today Axis poll have given TDP Lok Sabha 4-6 seats and YSRCP Lok Sabha 18-20 seats.

The Chanakya-News24 choice poll has anticipated a win for TDP with 17 Lok Sabha seats while YSR is pegged at winning 8 Lok Sabha seats.

So far as assembly polls are involved, a minimum of 2 exit polls have predicted that Naidu is doing enough to get another term as CM, while 1 have predicted a major win for the YSRCP.

Lagadpati Raja Gopal Survey have projected 90-110 assembly seats to TDP, pursued by 65-79 to YSRCP yet others would get somewhere between 1-5 seats. The RG Flash survey comes with prediction that the TDP would win 90-110 seats, YSRCP would get between 65 and 79, while some would get 1-5 seats.

India Today Axis Poll, meanwhile, have predictions 37-40 for TDP, 130-135 for the YSRCP, along with a maximum of one seat for others.

If Chandrababu Naidu returns to power, it will be an amazing comeback as he faced several problems in the election, the first to be held in the state following its bifurcation in 2014 . This has been also the first election in the state since Naidu broke it off with the BJP-led NDA over hold up in enabling special status to Andhra.

A solid anti-incumbency, caste and corruption were the major aspects while voters marched to polling booths for the concurrent election on April 11. Increasing heat, defective EVMs and VVPAT mistakes stretched the polling delayed into the night on election day, following which CM Chandrababu Naidu implanted a lawsuit with the Election Commission.

Hoping to play a crucial role in the opposition alliance against Narendra Modi, Naidu’s election campaign this time was punctuated by meetings with opposition leaders, including Congress chief Rahul Gandhi. Naidu also led a 21-party petition at the Supreme Court to boost VVPAT verification, that was finally refused.

With Naidu firmly in the UPA saddle, the BJP started courting his arch-rival and YSR Congress Party chief Jagan Mohan Reddy, who could prove to be a kingmaker in case of a hung Parliament. The Special Category Status (SCS) supposedly topped Jagan’s charter of demands, with ministries for the YSRCP heading close.

In spite of an unsaid understanding with the regional parties, the Congress and the BJP contested independently, but both the national parties seemed pretty much like ringside audience of the Naidu-versus-Jagan fight.

Naidu, who led TDP campaign, roped in National Conference leader Farooq Abdullah, West Bengal Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee and Delhi Chief Minister Arvind Kejriwal for two meetings and roadshows. The TDP chief attempted to play the ‘Andhra pride’ card by alleging that Modi have hatched a conspiracy against the state in collusion with Jagan and Telangana Chief Minister K Chandrashekar Rao.

Jagan, however, drew massive crowds with his speeches presented in his unique style. His mother YS Vijayamma and sister YS Sharmila additionally campaigned for the party. Jagan promised to usher in ‘Rajanna Rajyam’, a reference point to the rule of his late father YS Rajasekhara Reddy in which several schemes were executed for welfare of poor and weaker sections. The 46-year-old focused Naidu for enjoying power with BJP for 4 years and then severing ties with that party to obtain political mileage.

Consultants say actor Pawan Kalyan’s Jana Sena, that is making its political debut and contesting the polls in collaboration with Bahujan Samaj Party, CPI and CPI(M), will probably shift the balance of power by controlling into the votes of the TDP or the YSRCP.

Pawan might do well in a few constituencies with substantial population of Kapus, a local community to which the actor belongs. In the previous elections, Pawan have campaigned for TDP-BJP collaboration.

In 2014 elections, the TDP got 102 seats in the 175-member Assembly while its then alliance partner BJP guaranteed 4 seats. YSRCP come forth as the only opposition bagging 67 seats. Two independents were also elected. Interestingly, the YSRCP polled 45.01% votes, a mere 1.6% less than the votes polled by the TDP-BJP combine.

Out of 25 Lok Sabha seats, the TDP bagged 15 seats while BJP got 2. The YSRCP secured 8 seats. Facing people’s wrath over bifurcation, the Congress was completely decimated drawing blank in both the Assembly and Lok Sabha polls.

The key feature of these polls is the electoral debut of Naidu’s son Nara Lokesh , who contested for the Assembly from Mangalagiri in the capital region of Amaravati. Naidu desired re-election from Kuppam in his native Chittoor district while Jagan contested once again from Pulivendula, his family stronghold in Kadapa district.

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