His recent announcement suggests that the former Punjab CM has a trick or two up his sleeve and is moving to a plan
Captain Amarinder Singh resigned from the post of chief minister in September, saying he felt humiliated. News18
Ousted Punjab chief minister Amarinder Singh has set the cat among the pigeons with his announcement of a new political party and a possible tie-up with the BJP to contest next year’s state elections.
Amarinder Singh is too seasoned a player not to understand the consequences of joining hands with the BJP in a state seething with anger against the Modi government’s new farm laws. The BJP was always a bit player in Punjab, relevant only because it piggybacked on the Akali Dal. But today, it’s seen as a villain that’s anti-farmer, anti-Sikh and anti-Punjab to boot.
The death of four Jat Sikh farmers, suspected to have been mowed down in Lakhimpur Kheri by a car owned, perhaps even driven, by the son of Union Minister of State for Home Ajay Mishra is added fodder for the anti-BJP sentiments raging in Punjab.
Given this backdrop, Amarinder Singh’s willingness for a poll alliance with the BJP makes no political sense. Put it down to the foolishness of a lion in winter, crazed by the desire for revenge against his former party, the Congress, which he has repeatedly accused of humiliating him. Or to paraphrase Congress leaders and his Aam Aadmi Party opponents, Amarinder Singh has finally shown his true colours and betrayed the secular cause.
But old warhorses like the Captain (as Amarinder Singh is popularly called) are known to be cautious. They do not act in haste. Amarinder Singh may want to hurt the Congress in Punjab but not at the cost of his reputation and stature.
His recent announcement suggests that the former Punjab chief minister has a trick or two up his sleeve and is moving to a plan. And the bravado and bluster of the Congress and AAP indicate that they are aware of this and fear the worst. Because between them, Amarinder Singh and the BJP may well spring a surprise that could prove to be a game-changer in Punjab.
It’s not difficult to hazard a guess about what’s cooking. For Amarinder Singh to even think of allying with the BJP amid raging farmer agitations across Punjab, Haryana, western Uttar Pradesh and on the borders of Delhi, the Modi government would have to offer him a workable resolution to the current impasse over the new farm laws. This would allow him to claim victory and pull the rug from under both the Congress and AAP which are the main contenders in the upcoming polls.
The Captain has already had three publicised meetings with Union Home Minister Amit Shah. The most recent one lasted an hour. There have probably been some secret meetings as well which both sides have kept well hidden.
None of these were social calls. The meetings were quite clearly an attempt to find a compromise on the three controversial laws that would be acceptable to both the Modi government and the farmers.
It is also well known that Amarinder Singh has connections with the leaders of the agitation, particularly those from Punjab. In fact, at one point, it was being suggested that as chief minister, he even encouraged the farmers to march to Delhi to lodge their protest.
So, does an Amarinder-BJP tie-up indicate that a resolution to the ongoing farmers’ agitation is in sight? Quite possibly.
The contours of a resolution are still being worked out, which is why the Captain has not announced a definitive pre-poll tie-up with the BJP. He has only said that it’s a possibility. This suggests that a deal has not yet been finalised.
The sticking point seems to be how far the BJP is willing to go to pacify the farmers. Given the Modi government’s reputation for not rolling back a decision once taken, it is unlikely that Shah would concede to the farmers’ demand for a total repeal of the three farm laws that have angered them.
However, there could be an offer to give a legal shield to the issue of MSP. At one point during the failed talks between the Modi government and leaders of the farmers’ unions, this was on the table for discussion.
The question is whether, after such a prolonged face-off, the farmers would be willing to back down and accept this as a compromise. Government strategists feel that the demand for total repeal is a maximalist position and the farmers would be willing to compromise for something less.
Clearly, the Modi-Shah duo is depending on the Captain to persuade the protestors to meet the government halfway.
If indeed the farmers and the Modi government reach an agreement and the ongoing agitation is called off, the battle for Punjab becomes wide open. Consider this. A resolution could prompt the Akali Dal to come back to the BJP and even ally with Amarinder Singh’s new morcha.
The former Punjab chief minister enjoys a good rapport with the Badal family and he may welcome a tie-up with their party. An Amarinder Singh-Akali Dal-BJP alliance riding on the back of a resolution to the impasse over the farm laws may well upset the apple cart in Punjab and pose a stiff challenge to both the Congress and the AAP; they will have to scramble to come up with an alternative poll plank.
For the BJP, a compromise with the farmers comes with many benefits. In Punjab, it can hope to cut two major political irritants — Congress and AAP — to size. Even if the outcome is a hung Assembly, it doesn’t matter. There are plenty of post-poll games to be played just to keep the Congress and AAP from forming the next government.
A resolution may also cool the anti-BJP mood in Haryana and western UP. The latter is particularly crucial because Assembly elections are coming up early next year and the BJP needs to win back the support of the Jats to retain power in UP.
On the other hand, if no compromise materialises, Amarinder Singh’s morcha will turn out to be a damp squib. Not only will he fade into irrelevance in Punjab, so will the BJP.
We live in interesting times. They say politics is the art of the impossible. Watch out for Amarinder Singh’s next move to see which way the wind is blowing in Punjab.
The writer is a veteran journalist and political commentator. Views expressed are personal.