China’s Xi Jinping is ending more than two years of self-imposed in-person diplomatic isolation, as he makes his way to Saudi Arabia today for a two-day state visit. While there isn’t any official information about Xi’s visit to Riyadh, sources have been quoted telling different media outlets that the Chinese leader’s stay will include a China-Arab summit and a China-Gulf Cooperation Council conference.
According to a diplomatic source speaking to CNN, at least 14 Arab heads of state are expected to attend the China-Arab summit, which is now being described as a “milestone” for Arab-Chinese relations.
The meet assumes more significance in the backdrop of the Ukraine war when large parts of the developing world have expressed reluctance to choose sides in the war between Russia and Ukraine, which has received Western backing, despite urging from Washington and European capitals.
Confused about the meet and what it means for world politics, including India? We explain it all.
Agenda for the meet
While there isn’t any official confirmation about Xi’s visit to Saudi Arabia, energy cooperation is expected to be the prime focus of the meeting between China’s leader and Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman.
Beijing is the region’s most important trading partner, importing the bulk of Gulf oil production, along with other Asian and East Asian countries like India, South Korea, and Japan. Chinese-Saudi relations have deepened in recent years in the economic realm, including a potential Chinese stake in state oil giant Saudi Aramco, and militarily through weapons sales.
According to Twitter handle @businessbasics, China imported close to $11 billion worth of oil in 2021, in comparison to $5 billion from the US.
Jonathan Fulton, a political science professor at Zayed University in the UAE, has been quoted as telling the South China Morning Post, “China has emerged as a major trading partner for every country in the Middle East. Its state-owned enterprises do a lot of significant contracting throughout the region, and it is an important source of investment. Addressing economic pressures is a top level concern, much more immediate than political problems between Washington and Beijing.”
Energy is expected to be the focus of Chinese President Xi Jinping’s trip to Saudi Arabia. AFP
The South China Morning Post has reported that Xi’s trip could be another step in the westward expansion of the Beijing-led Shanghai Cooperation Organisation.
The meet will also provide an opportunity for both leaders to discuss the use of yuan currency in trade instead of the US dollar, a move that could undercut the US dollar as the default currency for the energy trade.
Timing is everything
The Xi-bin Salman meet comes at a delicate moment in US-Saudi ties, signalling Riyadh’s resolve of navigating the world order away from the Western viewpoint.
The long-awaited visit comes against the backdrop of a number of disagreements harboured by the US toward both Beijing and Riyadh.
The US and Saudi Arabia are still embroiled in a heated spat over oil production, which in October boiled over when the Saudi-led oil cartel OPEC+ slashed output by two million barrels per day in an effort to “stabilise” prices. The decision was taken despite heavy US campaigning against it. The US had criticised the Saudi decision, blaming it for fuelling inflation at home and generating income for Moscow, which it could use to continue their war in Ukraine.
Oil isn’t the only sticking point between the US and its eight-long-decade ally — Saudi Arabia. The Middle-eastern nation is also bitter about the waning US security presence in the region, especially amid growing threats from Iran and its armed Yemeni proxies.
Another thorn in the US-Saudi ties is the criticism of Riyadh’s human rights record, especially after the assassination of Washington Post columnist Jamal Khashoggi in 2018.
Having vowed to turn the kingdom into a “pariah” and condemning crown prince and de factor ruler Mohammed bin Salman over the killing of the Saudi journalist, Biden had flown to Riyadh in July, but the meet was punctuated with awkwardness that was highlighted in the US president’s fist-bump with Saudi’s bin Salman. The ultimately frigid visit did not yield any increases in oil output and only aggravated tensions.
US President Joe Biden fist-bumps Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman during his July visit to Jeddah. File image/AP
On the other hand, Xi Jinping can expect a full helping of Saudi diplomatic pomp and ceremony when he visits Saudi Arabia — a clear indication of the latter’s Looking East policy.
Analysts note that the visit lets MBS signal to the Biden administration that the US has a serious rival as Riyadh’s superpower patron of choice.
However, there are some that point out that Saudi Arabia is only protecting its own interests and its future. Helima Croft, managing director of global commodity strategy research at RBC Capital Markets, told the Wall Street Journal: “There is this sort of realignment happening: Where does your future lie?” “For the Saudis”, she said, “It is pushing them more toward a multifaceted set of relationships. They see their future in the East.”
Saudi analyst Abdulaziz Sager, chairman of Riyadh-based Gulf Research Center, echoed similar sentiments. Speaking to Saudi TV Asharq News, Sager said that Arab states wanted to tell Western allies that they have alternatives and their relations are primarily based on economic interests.
For China’s Xi Jinping, who’s been in a self-imposed diplomatic isolation, the visit to Saudi Arabia will provide him an opportunity to look statesman-like and highlight the great deference that China is afforded around the world, and for Xi to take personal credit for China’s rise in power and status.
It also allows Xi to demonstrate that China is now a major player in a region where in recent history Beijing has tended to be absent and long ceded ground to Washington, Moscow and other out-of-region capitals. Xi’s visit would signal to1.4 billion Chinese people that their country has become a major player in the Middle East and by extension a global power since only consequential outside countries get traction in the region.
Should India be worried?
In the short term, Xi’s visit to Saudi Arabia has no bearing on India. However, one has to look at the bigger picture and the long-term implications of such a visit.
As China grows closer to Middle-Eastern nations, it will be able to wield greater influence on these countries. One can’t forget that India is Saudi Arabia’s second biggest buyer of oil only behind China.
Close ties with Middle-Eastern countries could also put India at risk from a security perspective. Beijng has already established its first overseas military base in Djibouti in 2017, just across from Arabia. As a result, China is now a player in the Red Sea and the western Indian Ocean.
Rajeswari Pillai Rajagopalan, director for the Center for Security, Strategy and Technology at New Delhi’s Observer Research Foundation, has been quoted as saying in the past, “Clearly they are coming closer and closer to India and that is extremely worrying given its adversarial, hostile relations with China.”
“Although these are civil projects, the overall worry is that these countries are falling more and more into Chinese influence,” he had told Voice of America.
With inputs from agencies
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