India must realise that Vladimir Putin is no Leonid Brezhnev and Russia of today is not the Soviet Union of 1971. Much water has flowed under the Volga since then
The choppy waters of international realpolitik are in a constant state of flux; a fluidity that warrants nations to continually improvise to safeguard their national interest without falling foul of the accepted norms of modern sovereignty. The Russia-Ukraine confrontation is an inflexion point; a crisis that has disrupted the existing fragile geopolitical equilibrium, accentuated fault lines between even otherwise like-minded nations and forced them to reset their priorities and relationships.
India, especially, has had to walk a fine line; a line that balances the compulsions of its current security needs (Russia is a major arms supplier for India) with its long-term goal of containing China and enhancing its future economic prospects — a strategy that involves more affinity with the United States and Europe. India is already a part of Quad — a strategic security dialogue between the United States, Australia, Japan and India. Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s recent three-nation tour of Europe has added to this equation by enhancing ties with Berlin, Paris and Copenhagen.
To dub India’s neutral stance vis-?-vis Russia as a cop-out is too simplistic an assessment. In fact, it is a mature, nuanced and pragmatic approach that has in the first place helped secure the safe evacuation of over 20,000 of its citizens. Additionally, by striking a different path, India has not only asserted its autonomy but also articulated its world vision of peaceful negotiation with certitude. India’s refusal to take sides signals a multilateralism that posits to be the new mantra of an interdependent globalised world. And it is this paean to multilateralism that is finding resonance in the capitals of Europe.
As India embarks on this venture of forging new friendships, it is vital to re-examine India’s relations with Russia. Russia (or the Soviet Union in its previous avatar) has been a time-tested friend and ally coming to India’s aid during the 1971 war and also when the United States imposed sanctions post India’s nuclear tests in 1998. Russia continues to be India’s major arms supplier accounting for 69 per cent of its arms import for the period 2012-16. This number has fallen to 46 per cent in recent times (2017-21) but still remains critically significant.
But today, India must realise that Vladimir Putin is no Leonid Brezhnev and Russia of today is not the Soviet Union of 1971. Much water has flowed under the Volga since then.
The Indo-Soviet Treaty of 1971 was signed bearing mainly China in mind and came within months of Henry Kissinger’s secret visit to China (via Pakistan) in July 1971. With the collapse of the Soviet Union, the treaty elapsed. India did sign a new Treaty of Friendship and cooperation with Russia in 1993 but without the crucial Article IX of the 1971 treaty: A clause that ensured that the two nations came to each other’s aid in the event of an armed attack on either.
Conversely, Russia’s relationship with China has undergone a change from the 1960s and 1970s when ideological differences and a serious border dispute pitted the two nations against each other. Vivek Katju, former secretary, Ministry of External Affairs (The Tribune, 9 August 2021) writes “Meanwhile, Sino-Russian relations have become fundamentally transformed in this century. Article 9 of the Sino-Russian treaty of friendship of 2001 is almost identical to Article IX of the Indo-Soviet treaty of 1971.”
The Sino-Russian joint declaration on 4 February 2022 in the background of the Winter Olympics is another testimony to the growing closeness of the two countries. And in January 2021, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi declared that Sino-Russian strategic cooperation has no end limits, no forbidden areas, and no upper bound (meiyou zhijing, meiyou jinqu, meiyou shangxian).
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In this changed geopolitical milieu, it is unlikely that Russia will rush to our aid with the same alacrity and application that it demonstrated in 1971, especially if China is involved. Accordingly, India needs to recalibrate its expectations from Russia without necessarily downgrading ties and look at other countries to mitigate the vulnerability that the Russia-Ukraine crisis has inadvertently exposed.
It is in this context that the role of Europe in India’s future must be addressed.
Europe’s own dependence on Russian energy has resulted in a better understanding and a deeper appreciation of India’s current predicament in contrast to the maximalist stance of the United States.
As per the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air: “63 billion EUR worth of fossil fuels were exported from Russia since the beginning of the invasion. The EU imported 71 per cent of this, worth approximately 44 billion EUR… The largest importers in order were Germany (EUR 9.1bln), Italy (EUR 6.9bln), China (EUR 6.7bln), Netherlands (EUR 5.6bln), Turkey (EUR 4.1bln) and France (EUR 3.8bln).”
India imported less fossil fuels from Russia during this period than even the United States.
As a result, European nations have been reluctant to censure India for its neutrality or willingness to buy Russian oil. Instead, there has been a concerted attempt to influence India through goodwill.
When Prime Minister Modi landed in Berlin, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz invited him to attend the G-7 Summit to be held in Germany in June. He then went on to laud India as a super partner: “India is a super partner for Germany in Asia in economic terms, security policy terms, and climate-political terms. We are ready to continue and deepen the close cooperation with India on global issues.”
Prime Minister Narendra Modi and German Chancellor Olaf Scholz continue their conversation at Federal Chancellery in Berlin.Twitter/@MEAIndia
The sixth round of Inter-Governmental Consultations between the two leaders inked several bilateral initiatives in key areas like trade, investment, technology, functional collaboration, skill development, climate change and renewable energy. Germany has committed EUR10 billion to fund green projects in India as a part of the Green and Sustainable Development Partnership. The Indo-German Education Partnership initiated in 2016 has already borne fruit. Today there are 29,000 Indian students studying in Germany as opposed to 4,000 in 2015. The new IITs are collaborating with technical universities in Germany.
The JDI on migration and mobility will assist India students and professionals gain employment in Germany.
Of the three countries that Prime Minister Modi visited during his recent trip, it is France that holds the most importance for India as a strategic military partner. France is India’s second-largest trading partner after Russia and accounts for 27 per cent of India’s arms imports today. In 2016. India purchased 36 Dassault Rafale Medium Multi-Role Aircraft at a cost of Rs 59,000 crore to strengthen the Indian Air Force. India is also in talks with France to set up an international maintenance hub for Rafale fighter sets; a development that assumes increased importance after Indonesia and the UAE inked deals to buy 42 and 80 Rafale jets recently.
France’s Naval Group was a part of the recently completed p-75 project that built six Kalvari class (Scorpene class) conventional submarines in partnership with the Mazagon Dockyard Shipbuilding Limited (MDL) in India.
India’s cooperation with Demark centres around the Green Strategic Partnership that was established in 2020 and focuses on green hydrogen, renewable energy and wastewater management.
During Prime Minister Modi’s recent visit, the two countries agreed to work on an MoU for a Smart Laboratory on Clean River Water in Varanasi and a Centre of Excellence on Smart Water Resources Management. India has also accepted Denmark’s invitation to join the Danish-established International Centre for Antimicrobial Resistance Solutions (ICARS) initiative. Antimicrobial resistance results in thousands of deaths every year.
Europe has a diversified basket of deliverables to offer to India that fulfil its current needs by complementing its deficiencies. The altered geopolitical climate and relative military vulnerability make it imperative for India to follow this lead with singular determination at this time. However, it must not distract India from its avowed aspiration of Aatmanirbhar Bharat especially with regard to military capability.
The writer is a US-based author. Views expressed are personal.
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