CBRN expert Colonel Ram Athavale explains the probabilities and use of chemical, biological and nuclear weapons during the Ukraine war
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The Russia-Ukraine war doesn’t seem to be ending anytime soon. Four rounds of talks have failed. Allegations and counter-allegations of war crimes have been cast by each other, including use of chemical weapons and human rights violations. CBRN (Chemical, biological, radiological and nuclear) expert Colonel Ram Athavale talks to Firstpost on the probabilities and use of chemical, biological and nuclear weapons in this war. Excerpts:
Ukraine has alleged that Russia has used chemical weapons in Mariupol. How can it be verified?
Russia, or any country signatory to the Chemical Weapons Convention, is duty bound not to produce, store or use chemical weapons. As of today, there are no indications or proofs that chemical weapons (CW) have been used in Mariupol or any other place in Ukraine. In any incident where CW are used, the victims shall show specific symptoms based on the type of CW used. Till now, no such casualties have been seen or reported anywhere in Ukraine. Verification can be done by sensors and detectors which can detect CW presence in air, soil or water samples from the alleged contaminated area. These samples are then analysed by special designated laboratories under the OPCW. Also, only medical examination of CW casualties can determine the use and type of CW.
Russia has off and on threatened the use of nuclear warheads in its war against Ukraine. What are the possibilities and repercussions?
Russia has been a nuclear stronghold. Its arsenal matches that of any other nuclear country. Russia is also a responsible nuclear nation with a robust nuclear command and control mechanism in place. What it is doing or trying to do is classic deterrence play. This nuclear “sabre rattling” is a means of sending warning signals to opponents that they should stop provocative and hostile actions. Nuclear weapons are a last resort and once used can be difficult to control due to retaliatory fires. I do not think nuclear weapons are going to be used. At best, alert levels will be played up. NATO, US and the EU powers are all well aware of the threats of escalation and are, therefore, sticking to economic sanctions and a lot of noise from outside Ukraine.
How do you rule out Russia not using CW or biological weapons (BW) if it senses losing ground in Ukraine? There had been evidence of chemical agents being used in Syria.
It is well-known that Russia had CW and BW. Russia signed the Chemical Weapons Convention and destroyed all their CW, as per OPCW obligations by 2017. There may be some clandestine stocks or samples of CW still available. It is reported that Russia continues to maintain a credible BW programme despite its signing the BWC. While there have been rumours and reports of Russian supplied or aided use of CW in Syria and BW in Afghanistan, these have not been confirmed or proven. There were, however, reports of Novichok nerve agent use in the UK and Germany alleged to be by Russia. Novichok agents are a USSR/Russian product.
Notwithstanding that, there are reported to be 25 bio labs of interest in Ukraine researching lethal pathogens. Similarly, there are some laboratories conducting research on toxic chemical agents too. Most of these labs, both BW and CW, are funded and aided by the US and/or EU states. There are fears that these labs may lose some samples or there may be toxic releases due to Russian bombing and missile strikes on these labs. There are also some apprehensions that the Russians may trigger such a release once they are in control of these labs. The samples can be traced to these labs and it may be difficult to prove who or what actually caused the release.
Russia will not initiate a direct use of CW or BW for two reasons. First, Russia is signatory to the Chemical Weapons Convention and the Biological Weapons Convention. Second, they will come under immense international pressure and punitive actions in such an event.
There is also the threat that rogue Ukrainian resistance forces may cause such toxic releases to try and stop the Russians. This may or may not be with the approval from the Ukrainian government. The field is wide open. Either way, any use of BW or CW shall be detrimental to the cause of both the Russians and the Ukrainians. Hence good prudence may prevail and we will not see use of BW or CW. Yes, a lot of toxic sabre rattling will continue to be seen.
As you mentioned, there are reports of the US having funded biological weapons research in Ukraine, along with the EU and WHO. Is there a possibility of its use and with what effect?
Post the Cold War, a large amount of CBRN facilities, research samples and technologies were left abandoned or orphaned. The US had jumped in and tried to secure most of these in many Central Asian countries. Since the 1990s, the US has been funding and aiding research in biotechnology in many countries. Extensive state-of-the-art research facilities and laboratories have been created in many East European and African countries by the US. Ukraine had surrendered all of its nuclear weapons (old USSR weapons) and chemical and biological research samples to Russia on its breakup. However, since then, the US has been helping research in Ukraine on chemical and biological substances. A lot of toxic material is available in the country. How secure is it and who all have access or what is its current status is debatable? But yes, there is sufficient toxic lethal material in Ukraine laboratories which may clandestinely be used by rogue elements. The citizens of Ukraine and neighbouring regions need to be prepared in case of such a release.
How can it be known that chemical or biological attack is being planned and used in a particular area? How can people be protected in case something happens?
It is difficult to detect or know of a chemical or biological strike. Chemicals will have immediate effects on people and animals. However, without proper detectors or medical examinations, it shall be difficult to say for sure that it was a CW. As for a biological weapon (BW) that can only be known once symptoms emerge and casualties begin. Further, it requires deployment of trained and well equipped CBRN response and reconnaissance teams in the battle areas. Such assets are at a premium and not possible to deploy everywhere. Unless you have confirmed intelligence reports of CW or BW use or some certain early warning, it shall be a surprise. Satellites cannot (as yet) give you such information. CBRN protection requires special suits and fully sealed full-face masks. In addition, totally sealed underground safe shelters with clean CBRN filtered air are required for safe housing of a large number of citizens or soldiers. Such shelters do not exist in most places. Therefore, civilian and even military vulnerability to CBRN attacks exists.
The author is a freelance writer. Views expressed are personal.
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