The March-end unseasonal heatwave is expected to shake many more all-time records in both the plains and hills of north India as maximum temperatures will be 8?C to 15?C above normal
The unusual mid March heatwave conditions subsided in the past week as temperature took a slight fall between 19 to 25 March.
The intensity of heatwave subdued as the anti-cyclonic circulation shifted towards the Arabian sea whereas it was over the land in the western India during mid March but in the absence of any other significant weather system, absolutely no precipitation is recorded in north and central India during this period and both minimum and maximum temperatures continue to remain appreciably above normal.
Temperature over Jammu, Kashmir and Ladakh, Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Punjab, Haryana, Delhi, Uttar Pradesh, Rajasthan, stayed above normal by 3 to 8?C.
In Gujarat, Maharashtra, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Bihar, Jharkhand, Odisha, West Bengal, Telangana, Assam, Meghalaya, Manipur, Mizoram, Nagaland, Tripura, temperatures remained 2 to 6?C above normal.
In Goa, Karnataka, Andhra Pradesh, Tamil Nadu, Kerala temperatures were recorded above normal by 2 to 4?C during 19 to 26 March.
Andaman and Nicobar Island experienced wet weather under the influence of tropical deep depression earlier in the week, The island recorded a total of 132.4mm rainfall against the normal of 21.0mm so far in March, most of the precipitation fell during this week only.
Under the influence of lower level wind discontinuity, evening thunderstorms have become common in Kerala, Karnataka, Goa and interiors of Tamil Nadu throughout this week, an overall increase in pre-monsoon rainfall is observed in southern peninsula this week when compared to the earlier days of March.
As per the data from meteorological department, till 25 March:
o India as a whole recorded a total of 5.3mm rainfall against the average of 24.3mm, departure from normal stands at -78 per cent
o Southern Peninsula: Actual 10.0mm against the average of 11.5mm, -13 per cent departure from normal.
o East & North East India: Actual 8.9mm against the average of 46.1mm, -81 per cent departure from normal.
o North West India: Actual 5.2mm against the average of 40.4mm, -87 per cent departure from normal.
o Central India: Actual 1.1mm against the average of 6.8mm, -84 per cent departure from normal.
All- India weather forecast for next week: 27-03-2022 to 02-04-2022:
o Monitoring the sudden expansion of ridge from the anti-cyclonic circulation from the Arabian sea towards the west India during the upcoming week, it will push hot Westerly winds from Thar into most parts of India. It is the same weather feature which resulted in record breaking mid March heatwave in India, as the similar pattern returns, heatwave is expected to make a comeback in most parts of north and central India by fag end of March.
o During 28 to 31 March maximum temperatures are expected to reach 42-44?C in Western Rajasthan and “Loo” might blow in the afternoon hours, “Loo is local vocabulary in north India, basically used for hot gust that blows in peak summers”.
In Punjab, Haryana, Delhi and Uttar Pradesh day temperatures most likely in the range of 38?C to 42?C.
Heatwaves will not spare Himalayas and temperatures might cross 35?C mark specially in Shivalik ranges.
o March end unseasonal heatwave is expected to shake many more all-time records in both plains and hills of north India as maximum temperatures will be 8?C to 15?C above normal.
o In Gujarat, Maharashtra, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Bihar, Jharkhand, Odisha, West Bengal, Telangana, Heatwave and 5?C to 10?C above normal day temperatures will be observed in the period of 29 March to 2 April.
o As moisture feeding southerly winds will be dominating in north east India, the region will experience on and off light to moderate rains next week.
o Pre-monsoon thundershowers will persist in Kerala, Karnataka and western Tamil Nadu daily in the evening hours after a warm and humid day.
Region wise detailed weather forecast for next week from 27 March to 2 April
North India
Significant weather synopsis:
o Domination of high pressure zone.
o Hot Westerly winds throughout the week.
Weather forecast for hills: Himalayas are expected to experience drier than usual weather as no impactful Western Disturbance is expected to arrive in near future.
Earlier in the week maximum temperature is expected to rise once again to the record levels. Parts of Jammu, lowers hills of Himachal Pradesh and Uttarakhand will cross 35?C temperature mark, Some parts of higher reaches might record temperature above 20?C during 29 to 31 March. Most areas will fulfill heatwave declaration criteria.
Both minimum and maximum temperature anomalies are likely to be 8?C to 16?C above normal.
Weather forecast for Plains: Under the grip of High pressure area, Dry Weather and clear skies will continue to exist in Punjab, Haryana, Delhi NCR, Rajasthan and Uttar Pradesh.
Hot Westerly winds of 15-25 kmph will ensure a sudden rise in both minimum and maximum temperature early in the week. For the first time in the season most stations in the plains will record above 40?C maximum temperature on Tuesday and Wednesday.
Some stations in west Rajasthan, south-west Haryana and Bundelkhand region of Uttar Pradesh are expected to record maximum temperature around 43-44?C.
Nights are pleasant at the moment but anticipated to get slightly warm as minimum temperatures will be above 20?C in Punjab, Haryana, Delhi and Uttar Pradesh while it may cross 25?C and up to 30?c in South West Rajasthan.
Temperature anomalies are expected to be 5 to 14?C above normal during the period of 27 March till 2 April.
Expected minimum and maximum temperature range forecast for 27 March – 2 April
o Punjab: 18.0 to 23.0?C , 36.0 to 41.0?C.
o Haryana: 19.0 to 24.0?C , 37.0 to 43.0?c.
o Rajasthan: 24.0 to 30.0?C , 39.0 to 44.0?C.
o Delhi NCR: 19.0 to 23.0?C, 37.0 to 41.0?C.
o Uttar Pradesh: 22.0 to 26.0?C, 38.0 to 43.0?C.
Central India
Significant weather synopsis:
o High pressure area persists.
o Dry and hot north west winds.
Following the trend of previous weeks, weather conditions are most likely to be dry in large parts of Gujarat, Maharashtra, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, at few occasions skies might get cloudy but chances of meaningful rains do not exist in this week.
Dry and hot northwest winds will keep temperatures on the higher side, heatwave conditions are expected in parts of Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh and Vidarbha region of Maharashtra during 29 to 31 March as temperature might reach 42?C-44?C in the said period.
Coastal areas of Gujarat and Maharashtra including Mumbai to warm up once again up to 38?C-39?C earlier in the week. Night temperatures are expected to rise by 2?C-3?C from current levels.
Temperature anomalies are expected to be 2?C to 8?C above normal in most stations of Central India this week.
Expected minimum and maximum temperature range forecast for 27 March – 2 April
o Gujarat: 23.0 to 30.0?C , 39.0 to 43.0?C.
o Maharashtra: 21.0 to 27.0?C , 37.0 to 44.0?c.
o Madhya Pradesh: 21.0 to 27.0?C , 37.0 to 43.0?C.
o Chhattisgarh: 23.0 to 29.0?C, 38.0 to 43.0?C.
East India
Significant weather synopsis:
o Dry and hot north west winds over east India.
o Moisture feeding Southerly winds in north east India.
Pre-monsoon rains are increasing over the north east India as moisture feeding Southerly winds from Bay of Bengal are impacting the region, due to its unique topography. On and off spells of pre-monsoon thundershowers are expected in Assam, Arunachal Pradesh, Meghalaya, Mizoram, Nagaland, Tripura, Manipur this week, the rainfall activities in the region will also keep an check on rising temperatures and it will not permit it to reach very high.
Meanwhile dry and warm Northwest winds Influence most parts of Bihar, Jharkhand, West Bengal and Odisha, both minimum and maximum temperature are expected to rise by 2-3?C from current levels.
Stations in Bihar, Jharkhand and West Bengal might record maximum temperature in the range of 40-41?C while it can sore up to 44?C in interiors of Odisha.
There are no chances of any significant precipitation in east India during this week.
Expected minimum and maximum temperature range forecast for 27 March – 2 April
o Bihar: 20 to 26.0?C , 35.0 to 40.0?C.
o Jharkhand: 22.0 to 29.0?C , 37.0 to 42.0?C.
o West Bengal: 25.0 to 30.0?C , 35.0 to 40.0?C.
oOdisha: 25.0 to 31.0?C , 38.0 to 44.0?C.
oNorth East India: 15.0 to 21.0?C , 23.0 to 33.0?C.
South India
Significant weather synopsis:
o Lower level wind discontinuity (LWD) at West Coast.
o Dry continental winds in the interiors and East coast.
Under the influence of Lower level Wind Discontinuity, ‘Mango showers’ will continue in Kerala, Karnataka and Western Tamil Nadu daily in the evening hours.
Rain bearing clouds form after a hot and Humid day due to local convection, Sometimes they can produce Strong Thunderstorms and Gusty winds, which will be probable this week too.
Most parts of Goa, Telangana, Andhra Pradesh and East Tamil Nadu are expected to experience dry and hot weather this week.
Maximum temperature are expected to rise above 40?C and up to 44?C in Telangana which may lead to Heatwave conditions in the state earlier in the week.
Nights are expected to be warm and humid in Tamil Nadu and Andhra Pradesh. Temperature anomalies are expected to be 2 to 5?C above Normal in the week.
Expected minimum and maximum temperature range forecast for 27 March – 2 April
o Telangana: 23.0 to 30.0?C , 38.0 to 44.0?C.
o Andhra Pradesh: 25.0 to 30.0?C , 35.0 to 40.0?C.
oGoa: 24.0 to 26.0?C , 33.0 to 35.0?C.
o Karnataka: 23.0 to 27.0?C , 33.0 to 39.0?C.
o Tamil Nadu: 26.0 to 31.0?C , 35.0 to 41.0?C.
oKerala: 23.0 to 29.0?C , 32.0 to 36.0?C.
The author, better known as the Rohtak Weatherman, interprets and explains complex weather patterns. His impact-based forecasts @navdeepdahiya55 are very popular in north India.
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