Finlandisation refers to a Finnish-style Cold War neutrality, in which Ukraine does not ally with either Russia or the West
This photograph taken on 4 March, 2022 shows a street art painting created by French street artist Kelu Abstract dedicated to the Ukrainian people after the Russian invasion of Ukraine, in Paris. AFP
On 24 March, it will be a full month since Russia invaded and attacked Ukraine. Despite several rounds of negotiations, the two sides are far from reaching any terms for truce.
Before the “special military operation” Russia had invoked the threat of Ukraine joining NATO, hopes of which are now close to none as Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskyy acknowledged last week.
While during the negotiations between Russia and Ukraine, the “Finlandisation” of Ukraine has been seen as one of the truce models that may work, let’s take a look at what the term means and how it may help Ukraine:
What is Finlandisation
During the long years of the Cold War between Moscow and the West, Finland agreed to a policy of strict neutrality that has come to be known as “Finlandisation” since.
The policy was rooted in the Agreement of Friendship, Agreement of Friendship, Cooperation, and Mutual Assistance (or YYA Treaty, from the Finnish “Ystavyys-, yhteistyo- ja avunantosopimus”) that Finland signed with the USSR in April 1948.
Article 1 of the treaty (translated) reads: “In the eventuality of Finland, or the Soviet Union through Finnish territory, becoming the object of an armed attack by Germany or any state allied with the latter (meaning, essentially, the United States), Finland will, true to its obligations as an independent state, fight to repel the attack.
“Finland will in such cases use all its available forces for defending its territorial integrity by land, sea, and air, and will do so within the frontiers of Finland in accordance with obligations defined in the present agreement and, if necessary, with the assistance of or jointly with, the Soviet Union.
“In (these) cases, the Soviet Union will give Finland the help that it requires, subject to mutual agreement between the contracting parties.”
Since its first use, Finlandisation has become a general term used for a process by which one powerful country makes a smaller neighboring country refrain from opposing the former’s foreign policy rules, while allowing it to keep its nominal independence and its own political system.
The treaty protected Finland from being attacked or incorporated into the USSR while allowing it to practice democracy and capitalism on the condition that it stayed out of the conflict between the great powers.
Finlandisation of Ukraine
During the ongoing armed conflict between Ukraine and Russia, the term has again gained currency as Ukraine has found itself in a similar situation as Finland.
According to a report by the Indian Express, US Secretary of State from 1973 to 1977 Henry Kissinger advocated for Ukraine’s Finlandisation in an op-ed published in The Washington Post in 2014.
Kissinger had argued that Ukraine should be able to freely choose its economic and political associations, including with Europe and it should not join NATO, which was the prime reason behind Russia’s invasion.
He also suggested that a government chosen by Ukrainian citizens should opt for a policy of reconciliation between the various parts of their country.
“Internationally, they should pursue a posture comparable to that of Finland. That nation leaves no doubt about its fierce independence and cooperates with the West in most fields but carefully avoids institutional hostility toward Russia,” Kissinger had written.
However, to bring all the parties involved to the same page at this stage in the ongoing war seems a bit complicated. The option of Finlandisation would be far from being achievable as Russia continues its aggression in Ukraine, leaving civilian casualties in its wake.
With inputs from agencies
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