Several countries, including China, Germany and Hong Kong are witnessing a dramatic surge in cases. However, epidemiologists in India believe that unless a deadlier variant of the virus emerges, the country is unlikely to witness another wave of infections
Just when the world thought that the coronavirus pandemic was waning, several countries across Southeast Asia and Europe are witnessing a dramatic surge in cases, causing great concern.
However, medical experts in India are of the opinion that given the high vaccination coverage and immunity due to natural infection, any future waves are unlikely to have a major impact in the country.
So, what exactly is happening? Will India face a fourth wave? Which countries are in the grips of the pandemic currently?
We take a look at the situation.
Coronavirus cases on the rise
China is witnessing a dramatic rise in cases over the past few weeks.
The country has largely kept the virus at bay since it brought to heel its initial outbreak in 2020 using targeted lockdowns, mass testing and travel restrictions.
But the Omicron strain has broken through its defences in recent months and taken hold in multiple cities.
Jilin, the second-biggest city in Jilin province, will lock down about 4.5 million inhabitants for three days from Monday night, local authorities announced.
More than 4,000 new infections were reported across China on Sunday — with two-thirds in Jilin province, which borders Russia and North Korea.
Since 11 March, Changchun’s nine million people have only been allowed out once every two days to buy food.
Warning signs have been observed in the United States too, with Dr Anthony Fauci, Joe Biden’s chief medical adviser, being quoted as saying, “The bottom line is we likely will see an uptick in cases, as we’ve seen in the European countries, particularly the UK.”
For the unversed, the BA2 subvariant of omicron is driving up cases in Europe and Asia, notably in Hong Kong, and now accounts for about 30 per cent of infections in the US, where indoor-mask and vaccine requirements have been largely rolled back.
Across Europe too, COVID cases are rising once again. Much of the western part of the continent, including Germany, France, the UK, and Italy, are experiencing sustained increases in outbreaks over the last two weeks. Switzerland and Austria are both reporting per-capita case rates that exceed those during the Omicron surge in the US.
In the UK, according to a CNN report, COVID infections were 48 per cent higher last week compared with the one before and hospitalisations were up 17 per cent over the same period.
The same is the case in countries of the European Union. In Netherlands, the cases have seen a 48 per cent rise and last Tuesday, Germany reported a record high seven-day incidence in COVID-19 cases, of 1,585.4 infections per 100,000 people.
Why India may be safe
Epidemiologists in the country believe that unless a deadlier variant of the virus emerges, the country is unlikely to witness another wave of infections.
They say that as a large number of people had contracted the virus during the second wave in the summer of 2021, and the fact that the country has administered over 181.24 crore vaccine doses, should provide India with a higher degree of immunity.
A PTI report quoted Dr Sanjay Rai, senior epidemiologist at AIIMS, as saying, “India experienced a very devastating second wave last year, which was very unfortunate, but currently this is our main strength as natural infection provides better and longer duration of protection. Also, there is high vaccination coverage. Hence, severe impact of any future wave is unlikely.”
Dr Chandrakant Lahariya, an epidemiologist and public health specialist, echoed similar sentiments. “If we analyse data on seroprevalence, vaccination coverage and evidence on the spread of Omicron, it is logical to conclude that the COVID-19 epidemic in India is over. For India, the possibility of a fresh surge for many months and even with a new variant is low,” he said.
Dr Jugal Kishore, head of Community Medicine at Safdarjung Hospital, said due to high prevalence of seropositivity, which indicates that more than 80-90 per cent of the population has been infected by coronavirus, measures like wearing masks can be done away with.
He also pointed out that due to high natural infection, people are unlikely to have severe symptoms if a new wave of coronavirus comes.
Children wait in line to register themselves for COVID-19 vaccine at a health centre in New Delhi. India has expanded its vaccination drive to include 12-14 year-old children. AP
Dr N K Arora, chairman of the COVID-19 working group of National Technical Advisory Group on Immunisation (NTAGI), said given the high vaccination coverage and the wide spread of the disease, the possibility of India being hit by a severe wave is less likely. But that should not lead to the lowering of guard as there is always the risk of new variants emerging.
Arora said data from other countries shows that the risk of severe disease and death is primarily for those who are either unvaccinated or partially immunised.
“So, I would strongly request all those adults who have still not received their second dose and are due for their precaution dose to take it. Also, they should ensure that children aged 12 to 18 also complete the COVID vaccination as recommended under the national programme,” he said.
Experts also opined on the recent IIT-Kanpur study predicting a fourth COVID wave in India in June, terming it as “data astronomy” and guesswork.
For those who don’t know, a recent modelling study by researchers at the Indian Institute of Technology-Kanpur had predicted that the fourth wave of the COVID-19 pandemic in India would start around 22 June and peak from mid to late August.
The yet-to-be peer-reviewed study, posted on the preprint repository MedRxiv, used a statistical model to make the prediction, finding that the possible new wave will last for four months.
But health experts have raised doubts on this study, with Gautam Menon, who has been tracking numbers in India since the beginning of the pandemic and is also professor, Departments of Physics and Biology, Ashoka University in Haryana, saying that the timing was suspect and that the methodology was doubtful too.
“I would not trust any such prediction, especially one with precise dates and times,” he was quoted as saying by news agency PTI.
Public health expert Bhramar Mukherjee agreed, saying the kind of prediction made in the IIT Kanpur paper is akin to data astrology, not data science.
“I do not believe in the former. In my experience, forecasting models are very good with short-term prediction two-four weeks ahead of time,” Mukherjee, professor of Global Public Health at the University of Michigan, US, told PTI.
COVID in India
India has been seeing a decline in COVID cases; on Monday, the populous country only logged 1,549 new cases on Monday.
According to government data, India’s active caseload stands at 25,106 cases and accounts for only 0.06 per cent of the country’s total positive cases.
The data also revealed that 31 people had succumbed to the virus in the past 24 hours, taking the death toll to 5,16,510.
The daily and weekly positivity rates have also remained at 0.40 per cent.
With inputs from agencies
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