As the Western world piles sanctions after stricter sanctions on Russia, India has maintained a diplomatically neutral standpoint in the entire Russia-Ukraine conflict, trying to balance its ties with Moscow and the West.
File image of Prime Minister Narendra Modi with Russian president Vladimir Putin. Image courtesy: PIB
As the West piles sanctions upon sanctions on Moscow, India has maintained a diplomatically neutral standpoint in the entire Russia-Ukraine conflict.
Last week, India abstained from a UN Security Council resolution deploring Russia’s “aggression” against Ukraine, winning praise from Moscow for its “independent and balanced position”.
Follow all LIVE updates on the Russia-Ukraine crisis here
But some in the West, including powerful US lawmakers, saw India’s note of neutrality as a failure to condemn the Russian invasion as a silent backing of Moscow.
According to a report by Agence France-Presse, India is also reportedly looking to bolster its rupee-rouble trade pact with Moscow, potentially undermining Western efforts to isolate Russia from the global financial system.
Also read: The meta-narrative about India’s non-involvement in the Ukraine imbroglio
With Russia’s increasing onslaught against Ukraine and the US and the EU’s collective calls for it to stop, India faces a delicate balancing act between the West and Moscow.
Let’s examine why:
India’s strong relations with Russia
India and Russia have maintained strong historical ties as the two countries have engaged with each other in politics, defence, civil nuclear energy and economic operations.
Prime Minister Narendra Modi-led government has targeted to reach $30bn in bilateral trade and investment worth $50 billion by 2025.
Bilateral trade between India and Russia stood at $9.4 billion so far this fiscal year, against $8.1 billion in 2020-21.
Russia is the largest arms supplier to India with 68 per cent of the country’s total arms imports coming from Moscow, as per a 2017 report by Economic Times.
In October 2018, India inked a $5.43bn deal with Russia to procure five S-400 surface-to-air missile systems. India and Russia have several other joint military programmes including BrahMos cruise missile, Sukhoi Su-30MKI, KA-226T twin-engine utility helicopters, and Ilyushin/HAL tactical transport aircraft among others.
Russia has also agreed to build more than 20 nuclear reactors in India over 20 years.
India’s main imports from Russia include fuels, mineral oils, pearls, precious or semi-precious stones, nuclear reactors, boilers, machinery and mechanical appliances; electrical machinery and equipment and fertilisers.
While major export items from India to Russia include pharmaceutical products, electrical machinery and equipment, organic chemicals and vehicles.
Russia has also played a diplomatic role when it comes to India and its long-time adversary and neighbour China.
After a violent clash between Indian and Chinese troops in the Galwan Valley of Ladakh in 2020, Russian foreign minister Sergei Lavrov hosted the Russia-India-China (RIC) trilateral foreign ministers’ meeting in the capacity of a mediator.
Why India cannot take sides
If India sides with Russia in the ongoing conflict it risks alienating itself from the West, especially the US.
Driving a wedge in its so far amicable relationship with the US, which can retaliate by imposing trade sanctions on India that may go beyond its earlier threat of sanctions over the S-400 missile system deal with Russia.
Refusing the US’ hand to join the opposition against Russia can also affect India’s relations with the UK and EU, with which the Modi government has been seeking stronger ties.
Also read: Ukraine crisis: Taking sides will harm India’s national interests
Over 18,000 Indian students have been stuck in Ukraine since the conflict began, except a few thousand who have found their way home thanks to Operation Ganga.
Taking a side may hamper the students’ safety as they have to make their way through a number of international borders, most of which are Ukrainian allies by now, to reach a safe haven from where they can be picked by Indian aircrafts.
On the other hand, if India decides to side with the West it will have not only Russia to worry about but its close allies, China and Pakistan, that are India’s adversaries right next door.
Pressure from the West on India to side with it will move Russia closer to China and Pakistan, a possibility India would seldom want to face.
In its decision to abstain from the UN Security Council vote, India found itself alongside only Beijing and the UAE, as Russia vetoed the resolution.
Talking to the AFP, Nandan Unnikrishnan of the Observer Research Foundation said, “there are not many choices that India has.”
“It has as much investment in a relationship with Russia as it has in maintaining a relationship with the United States,” he told AFP.
“India’s challenges in the maritime is where it needs the United States and India’s challenges on the continental shelf is where it requires Russia,” he added, as quoted by AFP.
With inputs from agencies
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