Several parts of Haryana, Uttar Pradesh, Delhi and the National Capital Region witnessed hailstorms on Friday night and Saturday morning
Spring is here, and so are hailstorms! After a very cold winter this season over North India, finally temperature has started rising since mid-February as we have entered spring. A series of Western Disturbances, which was on an unusually higher side since the winter, is also showing its effects in spring. Many parts of Haryana, Uttar Pradesh, Delhi and the National Capital Region witnessed strong spells of hailstorms on Friday night and Saturday morning.
Why are hailstorms occurring when the weather is getting warm? Let’s Look at the science of hailstorms to answer the questions.
When spring starts, it means the temperature on surface levels is warmer when compared to winters. But that doesn’t mean it is also getting warm in the different layers of atmosphere. Conditions become more favourable for severe weather, in our case hailstorms, When Western Disturbance/Jet Streams between 200-500hpa (Cold Air on Upper levels) clashes with moisture-feeding winds, Easterlies from Bay of Bengal and South Westerly from Arabian Sea between 850-925 hpa (Warm Air on Surface levels) considering the factor they pass over the land with higher surface temperatures.
The combination of weather features set the stage for formation of cumulonimbus clouds which cause intense thunderstorms over North, Central and East India. Hails form in the updraft of the thunderstorm which is the rising warm air in the cumulonimbus clouds. It lifts up the water droplets higher into the atmosphere where the air temperatures are below freezing which converts the droplets into the hail stones; later, the gravity of the earth pulls down the hails towards the land.
Coming downwards it crosses many obstacles such as strong horizontal winds, humidity levels and also temperature difference which ultimately decides the size of the falling hail. In spring the freezing levels in the clouds are lower compared to monsoon. That’s why hail reaches the ground quickly in these months. During monsoon, cloud freezing level is higher and temperature on the surface is very warm due to which hail melts back to the form of water droplets or rain before reaching the surface. This also explains why hails do not occur in India during monsoons.
In the past week, during 20-26 February, rainfall and hailstorms were observed in Central, East India (on 24 February) and in North India plains (on 22, 23, 25, 26 February), causing damage to the standing rabi crop.
All-India weather forecast from 27 February to 5 March
Dry weather in North India on 27th and 28th February with cooler than normal temperatures. Under the influence of two Western Disturbances in quick succession starting 1 March, fresh snowfall is expected in the Himalayas and another round of rainfall and hailstorm in a few parts of plains with peak spread and Intensity on 3-4 March.
This week India’s Northeast and eastern parts will witness mainly dry weather; nights will be cool and day temperature will start rising towards the second half of the week. No significant weather system is likely to affect the region.
Following the trend of the past few weeks, most parts of West and Central India will continue to engage with dry weather and slightly hot day temperatures.
South India will be dry and hot in the first half of the week. A low pressure area is likely to form over southeast Bay of Bengal and adjoining south Andaman sea by 28 February. Moving east along with the influence of Easterlies it is expected to affect weather in Southern India, particularly in Tamil Nadu and Kerala, where moderate to heavy rains are expected during 2-5 March.
Region-wise weather forecast from 26 February to 5 March
North India
Cool North West of 15-25 km/h from 27 February to 1 March.
Weak to moderate Western Disturbance during 1 March till 5 March.
Induced cyclonic circulation and warm South West winds during 2-5th March.
Weather forecast for Hilly states
After the recent spell of heavy snowfall in the Himalayas, weather is expected to improve on Sunday and Monday with a major drop in night temperatures, Cold wave conditions may develop in some parts of Kashmir, Ladakh and Himachal Pradesh on 27 and 28 February.
As we are expecting Western Disturbance is likely to impact hilly states. Starting 1 March; fresh light to moderate snowfall will be observed in Kashmir, Ladakh, Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand mid and upper reaches. Lower hills of the state along with Jammu division to observe light to moderate rainfall activities along with hail storms.
Weather forecast for plains
Cool North Westerly winds will keep temperature under check during the first half of the week. Wednesday onwards temperature during the day will start rising towards 30?C in Punjab, Haryana, Delhi and Uttar Pradesh, it will easily cross 35?C in Central and South West Rajasthan.
Under the influence of Western Disturbance and induced cyclonic circulation, Southern winds, rainfall and hailstorms are expected to affect a few parts of Punjab by 1 March and Delhi, Haryana, Rajasthan and west Uttar Pradesh during 3-4 March; thunderstorms may accompany strong winds during this period.
Expected minimum and maximum temperature from 27 Feb to 5 March
Punjab: 7.0 to 12.0?C, 22.0 to 28.0?C.
Haryana: 8.0 to 13.0?C, 24.0 to 31.0?C.
Rajasthan: 9.0 to 16.0?C, 28.0 to 37.0?C
Delhi NCR: 9.0 to 14.0?C, 23.0 to 30.0?C.
Uttar Pradesh: 9.0 to 15.0?C, 26.0 to 34.0?C.
Central India
Significant weather synopsis
Cool winds from North West on 27-28 February.
Dry weather throughout this week.
Following the trend of previous week’s weather is expected to remain clear and dry across Central India which is very beneficial for farmers planning to harvest rabi crops in the region.
Cool winds from North West India will ensure cool nights in Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh and Maharashtra during the next two days. Meanwhile, days will be slightly hot at Interiors and west coast including Mumbai where day-time temperatures will be around 35?C next week. As no significant weather system may impact the region next week, no precipitation is forecasted for Central India.
Expected Minimum and Maximum Temperature from 27 Feb to 5 March
Gujarat: 13 to 19.0?C, 29.0 to 35.0?C.
Maharashtra: 10.0 to 21.0?C, 28.0 to 35.0?C.
Madhya Pradesh: 9.0 to 15.0?C, 27.0 to 36.0?C.
Chhattisgarh: 11.0 to 17.0?C, 29.0 to 37.0?C.
East India
Significant weather synopsis
Cool North West winds during 27 February till 2nd March.
Warm day times.
No other significant weather system.
Under the influence of cool North West winds, nights will remain cool in Bihar, Jharkhand, West Bengal and North East India this week. As dry weather is expected in states, day temperatures are expected to rise and warmer weather to start taking shape in East India now.
Expected minimum and maximum temperature from 27 Feb to 5 March
Bihar: 9.0 to 16.0?C, 27.0 to 32.0?C.
Jharkhand: 11.0 to 17.0?C, 28.0 to 34.0?C.
West Bengal: 14.0 to 18.0?C, 26.0 to 32.0?C.
Odisha: 14.0 to 19.0?C, 27.0 to 35.0?C.
North East India: 7.0 to 13.0?C, 19.0 to 27.0?C.
South India
Significant weather synopsis
Dry and warm weather earlier in the week.
Low pressure area is expected to form in South East Bay of Bengal and adjoining South Andaman sea by 28 February.
Mainly dry and clear weather is expected in Goa, Karnataka, Telangana, Andhra Pradesh, Tamil Nadu, Kerala during 27 February till 2 March. Temperature profile during the night will be pleasant, whereas days may be hot and sunny.
Under the influence of low pressure area and Easterly winds, windy weather along with moderate to heavy rainfall will occur in Tamil Nadu, south Andhra Pradesh and Kerala from 2 March till 5 March. Heavy rainfall in the southern states will be a bit unusual for the month of March, it may lead to waterlogging in low-lying areas.
Expected minimum and maximum temperature from 27 Feb to 5 March
Telangana: 18.0 to 22.0?C, 30.0 to 36.0?C.
Andhra Pradesh: 21.0 to 25.0?C, 28.0 to 37.0?C.
Goa: 21.0 to 24.0?C, 32.0 to 35.0?C.
Karnataka: 16.0 to 23.0?C, 29.0 to 35.0?C.
Tamil Nadu: 21.0 to 26.0?C, 30.0 to 35.0?C.
Kerala: 22.0 to 26.0?C, 32.0 to 35.0?C.
The author, better known as the Rohtak Weatherman, interprets and explains complex weather patterns. His impact-based forecasts @navdeepdahiya55 are very popular in north India.