The Ukraine crisis has precipitated because the US-led NATO has gone back on its promise made to the Soviet Union in 1991 that it will not push into territory east of Germany
File image of Russian president Vladimir Putin. AP
Georgill Isserson, Soviet military theoretician and architect of Soviet victory in World War II, once said, “Mobilisation does not occur after a war is declared, but ‘unnoticed’, proceeds long before that.” The Ukraine crisis has precipitated because the US-led NATO has been ‘mobilising’ against Russia by going back on its promise made to the Soviet Union in March 1991 that NATO will not push into territory east of Germany.
There can be no greater indictment of US-NATO than George Frost Kennan, who formulated the US policy for “containment” of the Soviets during the Cold War (1947-89), subsequently scripting that “expanding NATO would be the most fateful error of American policy in the entire post-Cold War era.” NATO has not only expanded eastwards, it has deployed troops in the region, supplied arms to Ukraine and deployed special forces in that country.
Instigated by the West, Ukraine made the biggest mistake by using force against peaceful protests in Crimea, which invited the Russian invasion and annexation of the region in 2014, which shocked the US and NATO.
The disastrous US withdrawal from Afghanistan affected America’s relations with its European allies, bringing President Joe Biden’s ratings down. The Ukraine crisis was therefore precipitated to forge Western unity. The demands made by Russian President Putin boil down to the West adhering to the promise made to the Soviet Union in March 1991. But there is little scope left for diplomacy with US-NATO having rejected every Russian demand.
Jack Matlock, former US ambassador to Moscow, writes in his book Reagan and Gorbachev: How the Cold War Ended: “What President Putin is demanding, an end to NATO expansion and the creation of a security structure in that insures Russia’s security along with that of others, is eminently reasonable. He is not demanding the exit of any NATO member and he is threatening none. By any pragmatic, common-sense standard it is in the interest of the United States to promote peace, not conflict.”
Luhansk and Donetsk regions have declared independence from Ukraine and Russia has recognised them as independent states. The violence within these regions can be attributed to Ukrainian actions backed by US-NATO. Putin has termed this genocide and some Russian forces have entered these regions as peacekeepers — limited action to safeguard Russian interests. But America says the Russian invasion of Ukraine has begun. Use of force against these regions by Ukraine, US-NATO including proxies will invite Russian intervention if requested by these republics.
Germany, which earlier wanted Nord Stream 2 left out of the Ukraine conflict, has been ‘coerced’ by the US to cancel the project. Germany was on the wrong side during both world wars and its economy will be hit without Russian gas, as would Europe, even as Biden is working on extra fuel from Qatar, which in turn will affect other regions including India. Russia was exporting 23.3 billion cubic feet of gas per day (72 per cent to Europe). The US cannot fill that gap since it exports only 9.6 billion cubic feet per day.
Besides, US gas is sold at four times the price of Russian gas.
French president Emanuel Macron is for a separate EU dialogue with Ukraine and Russia. Next presidential elections in France are slated for 10 April 2022. Macron, who is eligible for re-election, has shocked the US, with France joining China to jointly build seven infrastructure projects worth over $1.7 billion in Africa, South East Asia and Eastern Europe. Presidential candidate Marine Le Pen for the ‘National Rally’ party has announced France will leave NATO if she wins elections.
Prolonged conflict over Ukraine will aggravate the existing energy crisis in Europe — consequences of sanctioning Russian gas being catastrophic. The Ukraine crisis could stretch over the next few weeks depending on the violence levels in the Donbas. Independent Luhansk and Donetsk have now demanded areas over and above what they are physically holding. Russia has not commented on this but it may be Putin’s way to pay back the US knowing they can do little beyond sanctions — or reap the blowback from hitting Russia.
The US and UK have begun sanctions. For British PM Boris Johnson, it is a welcome diversion from the ‘party-gate’ and calls for his resignation. Canada’s Justin Trudeau is happy because Western media is mum about his hiding in an unknown location and authorizing brute force against peacefully protesting truckers, with visuals of his mounted police knocking down an old lady among others. The Pentagon is planning to deploy the National Guard against similar trucker convoys.
Unable to take any concrete action against China, Biden is pushing his luck against Putin before the mid-term polls in the US on 8 November. But prolonging the Ukraine crisis will likely be counterproductive for him, NATO and the EU. Biden has brought Russia and China closer with both supporting each other on Ukraine and Taiwan. It would be naive to think that Putin would not have taken into account the likely Western sanctions. But Biden’s brinkmanship doesn’t leave many options for Russia.
An outright Russian annexation of Ukraine is not likely — France and Germany don’t believe this either.
Putin, in his early morning address to the nation, said he wants to demilitarise, not occupy, Ukraine. It is likely that the Russian intervention will pan out this way: in and out, achieving limited strategic objectives without getting bogged down. Meanwhile, about 30,000 Russian troops are to stay in Belarus till the crisis is resolved.
But if Biden wants to wage ‘war’ over Ukraine, China may show its moves in Taiwan/South China Sea or even against India who it sees as an American ally. The foreign minister of Taiwan has warned of such a possibility. A shocker would be if Beijing conducts Iran’s first nuclear test on Chinese soil.
As America cries over Russia invading Ukraine, it must review its own invasions in multiple countries over past decades including invading Iraq on false pretext. Finally, while Narendra Modi first became the Prime Minister of India in May 2014, the NATO meeting held in Norfolk, UK, on 4-5 September 2014, discussed how to run down the economies of not only China and Russia, but also of India.
The author is a veteran of the Indian Army. Views expressed are personal.
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