Unlike other political parties in the state, the BJP has successfully accomplished caste mobilisation without caste wars or confrontations
When it comes to elections in Uttar Pradesh (UP), most political pundits and pollsters often get it wrong. A majority of them have not been able to correctly predict the outcome of Assembly and the Lok Sabha polls in the state since 2014. Why? It is because they are getting the caste matrix of the state wrong. Also, many analysts of late have been referring to an erroneous database.
This erroneous database came into prominence when known BJP baiter and self-proclaimed scholar of Hindu nationalist movement, Christophe Jafferlot and Ashoka University’s Gilles Vernier termed the 2019 Lok Sabha poll outcome as the “revenge of the upper-caste” elite. They said in an article in the Indian Express (27 May 2019) titled ‘Explained: In Hindi heartland, upper castes dominate new Lok Sabha’, “We are responding to this question using data that a team of researchers from the Trivedi Center for Political Data (Ashoka University) and the CERI (Sciences Po) have collected, coded and compiled in the framework of the SPINPER project – The Social Profile of the Indian National and Provincial Elected Representatives.”
This database is used by BJP critics to show various caste compositions in UP and how the BJP didn’t give them enough representation, so they are moving away from it. In addition to this erroneous database, another challenge is the lack of understanding of many analysts who tend to ‘parachute’ in various parts of Uttar Pradesh from Lutyens’ Zone without a basic understanding of the complex caste matrix in this state. Many of them unintentionally and some of them intentionally fall prey to generalised and sweeping assertions about caste mobilisation in UP’s Assembly polls.
The alternative to the above mentioned erroneous database is ‘Mehta-Singh’ Social index which if referred to would put upside down especially this theory that the BJP is an upper caste party in Uttar Pradesh and Other Backward Castes(OBCs) don’t have enough representation there so they are moving away from BJP in the forthcoming Assembly polls.
Author Nalin Mehta has come up with this Mehta-Singh Social Index on the caste matrix of Uttar Pradesh in his latest book, The New BJP: Modi and the Making of the World’s Largest Political Party. This index was prepared after studying and individually verifying caste profiles of:
? 2,560 Lok Sabha candidates fielded by the BJP, SP, Congress and BSP in each of UP’s 80 Lok Sabha constituencies and in every single election over three decades (1991-2019)
? 1,612 Vidhan Sabha(Assembly) candidates fielded by the above four parties in 403 Assembly constituencies in the 2017 election
? 42 state level BJP office-bearers in UP in 2020
? 101 government ministers in UP, stretching across BJP Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath’s council of ministers (54) in 2020 and SP Chief Minister Akhilesh Yadav’s council of ministers (47) in 2012.
? 98 district level BJP presidents in 2020.
Mehta points out some significant complexities of the UP’s caste matrix that many journalists, analysts and political pundits overlook, resulting in misleading assertions. It is important to realise before one reaches any conclusion that “caste in UP is notoriously difficult to pinpoint by looking at names on a list (as most analysts tend to do and hence falter)…Vermas from Noida are Gujjars (OBC), Vermas from eastern UP are Scheduled Caste, Vermas from near Bulandshahr are Sunar (OBC), Vermas from the Awadh region are Kurmis (OBC) and those from eastern UP are Kayasths. Similarly, Chaudharys from Ballia are Yadavs, those from western UP are Jats, while those from four UP districts are Kurmis. Kushwahas can be both upper-caste Rajput or OBC. Rawats from Uttarakhand are Rajputs/Thakurs while Rawats from UP are Pasi Dalits (SC). Likewise, Chandras can be SC or Thakur/Rajput. Tyagis are Brahmins in western UP but some Tyagis in eastern UP are SC. Some Tyagis from Meerut are also Bhumihars.” (The New BJP, Pp26-27)
Mehta underlines anecdotally how rampant is this absence of understanding about caste composition even within UP. “Former UP Chief Minister Jagdambika Pal, for example, is a Thakur. Yet for years he has been invited to attend caste-based OBC sammelans because many thought he was one too. This is because if you are a Pal from Basti, you are a Thakur (like the former Chief Minister) but if you are a Pal from anywhere else in UP, you are an OBC. This is why revisionist look at caste names is essential.”
This is where Mehta-Singh social index scores over the database used by Jafferlot and Verniers and which is often referred to for creating a false narrative that OBC is moving away from the BJP.
In fact, there are two models of caste empowerment in UP’s political arena. One is the traditional Congress model which is now followed by the Samajwadi Party. In this model certain senior leaders of a particular caste are taken into a party and given some rewards and the general perception is that the voters in this caste would largely follow blindly their so-called leaders. This model was used by the Congress for decades where backward caste leaders were getting empowered but the castes were not. To some extent BSP and most other parties also followed the same model.
But BJP has set up an alternative model where it has internalised the empowerment of the backward castes by empowering a large number of small and mid-level leaders within the party structure.
This gives them sustainable and firm grip on their support base in these castes. According to Mehta (The New BJP, Pp43), “There has been a radical shift in the profile of its leadership structures in UP at three levels: The state party organisation, ministerial portfolios and among its district-level presidents. By 2020, OBCs accounted for over 30 percent of the BJP’s top office-bearers in the state and SCs over 16 percent. The share of SCs is important because unlike parliamentary or Assembly elections party organisational posts do not have state mandated reservations. Representation here is even more reflective of a party’s positioning.”
He adds, “Of the party’s apex state leadership — consisting of its president and almost four dozen vice presidents, general secretaries and secretaries — 13 were OBCs, the highest of any caste, followed by 10 Brahmins and 7 Thakurs. By 2020, OBCs and SCs together accounted for 46.5 percent of the BJP’s top brass in UP.”
When it comes to the district level party structure, according to Mehta-Singh Social Index, in June 2020, 29.5 percent of the 98 district presidents were OBCs. This was followed by Brahmins at 21.4 percent and Thakurs at 18.3 percent.
Another striking feature of the BJP in UP is the rising representation of women in the UP state level leadership. While parties like Congress are busy indulging in sloganeering such as ‘Ladki hoon, Lad Sakti hoon‘, its leaders, as well as other parties, can learn from BJP when it comes to politically empowering women in the real sense and not for mere photo-ops. “Women accounted for 23.8 percent of the BJP’s state level office bearers in 2020 including one-fourth of its vice-presidents and almost one third of its secretaries. Crucially… OBC and SC women accounted for 60 percent of BJP’s state level women office bearers… This shows how deep rooted and structural the BJP’s shift to OBCs and SCs was.”
In a nutshell, the data clearly points out that weaning away the OBC votes from BJP wouldn’t be an easy task for its rivals and merely induction of a few OBC leaders may not produce the desired results, whatever the hype may be. The BJP is much more deep-rooted in OBCs and SCs and it is going to consolidate its presence in these constituencies further as this is a continuous process and not dependent on poll outcomes. It has taken almost a decade for the BJP to transform itself in UP to become a major representative of SCs and OBCs.
It is interesting to note that while a narrative is being created that the Yogi Adityanath-led BJP government in UP witnessed resurgence of Thakur domination, the numbers tell a different story. OBCs constituted around 35 percent of UP’s council of ministers in BJP’s regime whereas Thakurs constituted one-third of that at around 11 percent whereas Brahmins constituted 18.5 percent. In fact, the Samajwadi Party government led by Akhilesh Yadav had 15 OBC ministers and BJP had 19 OBC ministers under Yogi Adityanath. Also, while Akhilesh’s all OBC ministers were Yadavs, only one in the BJP’s 19 OBC ministers is Yadav. “This is significant because OBCs comprise as many as 76 different castes in UP… Similarly, UP’s SC population officially consists of 66 castes.” While the SP’s focus has been mainly on Yadavs, the BSP worked on Jatavs. The BJP, on the other hand, worked with all of them and specifically focused on empowering non-Yadav as well as non-Jatav castes as they were left behind.
However, what is important is that unlike other political parties in UP, the BJP has successfully accomplished caste mobilisation without caste wars or confrontations. It is a significant development in Indian social and political context where political parties tend to pit castes against each other to reap short term electoral benefits while damaging the social fabric of the country.
The writer, an author and columnist, has written several books on RSS. Views expressed are personal.
Read all the Latest News, Trending News, Cricket News, Bollywood News,
India News and Entertainment News here. Follow us on Facebook, Twitter and Instagram.