People look after their elderly relatives lying on stretchers and receiving intravenous drips while using ventilators at the Changhai Hospital hall in Shanghai, China. AP.
Beijing: China may witness as many as 36,000 Covid-19 deaths a day during the Lunar New Year holidays, an updated analysis by UK-based Airfinity said. The alarming prediction hints at the most deadly periods of the pandemic the Asian nation will face after it lifted stringent ‘zero-Covid’ policy in December last year.
The revised numbers from the independent forecasting firm added 11,000 deaths a day to its December 29 estimates.
“We now expect to see one larger and more prolonged wave with infections reaching a higher peak,” said Airfinity’s Analytics director, Dr Matt Linley.
Previously, the company had predicted the number of Covid deaths in a single day in China to peak at 25,000. Now, the revised forecast shows the figures to increase as festival travel may have increased the spread of virus to several provinces.
More severe Covid wave
Airfinity said keeping in view increased growth rate, it has changed its forecast from predicting two successive waves to one larger and more severe wave.
“[Covid] cases could peak at 4.8 million a day with 62 million infections predicted across a fortnight between 13th-27th January before beginning to fall,” the firm said.
“The implication of one larger wave as opposed to two smaller ones is increased pressure on hospitals and crematoriums and therefore also potentially a higher case fatality ratio,” it added.
Spike in Covid deaths
The Covid deaths forecast shows the alarming pace at which the deadly virus is spreading in China. It also brings to the fore the lack of clear information.
The London-based research firm said that the update in number of deaths is based on data from China’s regional provinces along with rates seen in other Covid Zero countries after they first lifted restrictions.
Burden on China’s healthcare system
A stronger Covid wave will weigh on healthcare facilities in China. Notably, hospitals continue to remain overwhelmed and more positive cases are expected to worsen the situation.
“Our forecast estimates a significant burden on China’s healthcare system for the next fortnight and it is likely that many treatable patients could die due to overcrowded hospitals and lack of care,” Linley said.
“Some provinces, such as Hubei and Henan, could see patient demand for intensive care beds being six times hospital capacity,” he said.
Lunar New Year holidays rush
On 8 January China re-opened its borders after having abruptly lifting its ‘zero-Covid’ policy. After the restrictions were ended, people have started travelling around the country leading to more possible spread of the infection.
Referred to in China as the Spring Festival, the Lunar New Year festivity begins on January 22 during which Chinese people return to their hometowns and prepare for celebrations.
The festival migration will run until February 15.
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