14th India-Japan Summit: Bringing bilateral relations back into clear focus out of the fog of Ukrainian crisis

The 14th India-Japan summit took place on the weekend of 19-20 March. This was the first physical summit since Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s important visit to Japan in 2018.

The 2019 summit with prime minister Shinzo Abe scheduled for Guwahati was cancelled due to protests paralysing the city; in 2020, the next summit was scheduled virtually but became a lame duck since Abe resigned a few days before it.

In 2021, the online summit was held between Prime Minister Narendra Modi and prime minister Yoshihide Suga. With the visit of Prime Minister Fumio Kishida, India-Japan relations are physically back on track. For Kishida this was his first major bilateral overseas visit and as a full-term prime minister, this was significant. This was an important opportunity for a new Kishida-Modi rapport.

This summit marks the 70th anniversary of the establishment of diplomatic relations between India and Japan and the 75th anniversary of India’s Independence

The summit allowed a rejuvenation of shelved plans. In the 2019 Guwahati summit, a major Japanese thrust towards the Northeast of India was planned. At the 2020 summit, Abe intended a strategic investment plan for India, which would have set in place new supply chains, transfers of technology, larger FDI and overcome India’s absence from RCEP. Since those summits did not take place, their agenda was shifted to the 14th Summit.

The most significant among these is the surge of Japanese FDI which will continue to flow to India. The target set in 2014 for Yen 3.4 trillion (about $28 billion) has been achieved. It took almost seven years to do so. Now, there is a new target of Yen 5 trillion (about $42 billion) to be achieved in the next five years.

In effect, this implies that 15 trillion yen of Japanese public and private investment is expected in India over the next five years. This significantly raises the stakes since in the past, Japanese investments in India have averaged about $ 2-2.5 billion per annum. This is a quantum leap whatever the yen-dollar exchange rate, in addition to the annual $4 billion ODA (Official Development Assistance).

The Abe plan for strategic investments in India is reinvigorated in a shorter time span. This suits Japanese companies better. Two years ago, they were in the midst of the pandemic and were looking at survival rather than expansion.

The second important takeaway is that the development of North East India is going ahead. The India Japan Act East Forum, established in 2017, has had five years behind it to plan. These plans include strengthening the bamboo value chain and taking sustainable development initiatives for the Northeast. ODA support to the Northeast road connectivity projects is agreed upon.

Support to medical education in Assam is among the sustainable development initiatives which include connectivity, healthcare, renewable energy and will support the linkages between Northeast India and Southeast Asia, particularly Myanmar and Thailand, where the trilateral highway is being developed. Japanese support for road projects in the Northeast is an important link to the trilateral highway and to create an economic hinterland that can become a production source for more exports and access to neighbouring ASEAN countries.

The third important takeaway is the commonality of views on the international situation. India and Japan share a common commitment to the international order based on rules, the UN Charter and mutually agreed agreements. This has consistently been the template to counter China’s expansion, particularly in the South and East China Seas as well as with India in Ladakh. This was reiterated, to pursue the same principles that are applied to the crisis in Ukraine.

Though Japan supported the US-led vote in the UN against Russia, India consistently abstained; their views are congruent. They want the fighting to end, humanitarian access to be achieved, diplomatic solutions to be found and do not want borders to be changed by force. The manner of saying this in public for both is different. While Kishida was open in his press remarks, India explained this clearly in press interaction undertaken by the foreign secretary.

Thus, while there was speculation that India and Japan differ on Ukraine, in reality it’s only the process, while the substance is quite the same.

The continuing ODA support through their yen loan programmes to support development in India is significant. Japan with between $3.5 and $4 billion annually, is the largest bilateral donor to India. This time Rs 20,400 crore for projects of connectivity, water supply and sewerage, horticulture, healthcare and biodiversity in various states were signed.

The second phase of the dedicated freight corridor, the Bengaluru water supply project, the Uttarakhand horticulture development project, the Tamil Nadu biodiversity project and the Chennai Metro Phase 2 are among those areas where Japan would continue to support India, besides the flagship bullet train project between Ahmedabad and Mumbai.

The India-Japan industrial competitiveness partnership roadmap, which is in operation since November 2021, addresses issues that Japanese companies faced in India but supports solutions to their problems through working groups on logistics and textiles and cooperation in MSME and supply chain matters. This will help Indian and Japanese companies become better partners and fructify the supply chain resilience initiative between India, Japan and Australia.

The partnership for a free and open Indo-Pacific underpinned by inclusiveness and rules-based order would be further supported by soon holding the second Two Plus Two meeting of Japanese and Indian foreign and defence ministers to follow up their meeting of 2019. While the normal exercises will continue, Japan participated for the first time in Milan and work toward the first exercises between the Air Forces is underway.

Given Japan’s emphasis on technology development, as part of its expanding defence budget, collaboration on cybersecurity, unmanned ground vehicle and robotics is underway. Where the Indo-Pacific is concerned, there was continuing agreement on the FoIP and how it could be linked to the IPOI. Japan has been an early responder and is the lead partner for its connectivity pillar.

India-Japan defence and security ties have strengthened in recent years and there is greater comfort in mutual engagement. It is important to note that both countries have similar views but may speak differently in the UN. When India’s term in the UN Security Council ends in 2023, India will have supported Japan for the Asian seat for the next two years. This will allow continuity in their coordinated efforts.

Another takeaway is that the India-Japan digital partnership is running smoothly, for digital transformation and opportunities for Indian IT professionals as well as collaboration in the area of AI, IoT and other emerging technologies. The India-Japan fund of funds has already invested close to $10 billion in India and this is likely to increase.

Another important takeaway is that while Africa does not find further mention for India and Japan to collaborate, the two have agreed to pursue ongoing projects in Bangladesh and look forward to exploring expansion of development projects in ASEAN, Pacific Island countries and in other places which the Quad focuses upon.

The 14th Summit has brought India-Japan relations back into clear focus out of the fog of the Russia-Ukraine crisis. The Quad strategy as well as the wider India-Japan partnership are firmly on the rails.

The writer is former Ambassador to ASEAN. Views expressed are personal.

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